Scottish independence referendum 2017?

[Clyde1998]

The biggest change in IndyRef2 (assuming it happens) will be the media. I can see maybe Pro-EU papers coming out in favour of independence to keep EU membership, this time - last time there was only one paper supporting Yes.

Also, many businesses will become more friendly with independence, if it leads to remaining in the EU. Could be interesting to see if businesses in the rest of the UK say they'll move operations to Scotland, if there's a Yes vote, to be in the EU.

I think this will be a comfortable Yes win, as the main arguments of the No campaign last time wouldn't exist anymore.

[Clyde1998]

Kezia Dugdale: “This is a bad result for jobs and for the economy in Scotland and across the UK. I spoke to Nicola Sturgeon this afternoon. We both have profound disagreements about the constitutional future of Scotland, but I stand ready to work with her in the best interests of the people of Scotland. Now is the time for calm heads. Labour's manifesto ruled out a second referendum in the lifetime of this Parliament - we won't be changing our minds any time soon."

[Clyde1998]

The childish selfishness of "if you make one single decision we don't like, we will leave!!1!1!!1!" is disgusting.

I can see you don't follow UK politics closely. Otherwise you would know that this is not the first time that a decision has been made that Scotland disagrees with, not even close to it.

[Clyde1998]

Today's Daily Record surprised me a bit, tbh:

[Clyde1998]

Amazing!

To confirm figures:

(Pollster To Be Confirmed)/Sunday Post:
Yes - 59%
No - 32%
DK - 9%

Excluding Don't Knows
Yes - 65%
No - 35%

Sample - 1,700

[Clyde1998]

Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 52% (+5)
No: 48% (-5)
(via Panelbase / 24 - 25 Jun)
Chgs. from 28 Apr.

Surprisingly tight under the circs.

Panelbase have been showing some of the lowest levels of support for independence since the previous referendum, compared to other pollsters - so it's a very positive for independence supporters.
No-one seemed to have posted this poll though:

Survation/Daily Record (25 Jun)
Yes - 48% (+4 on 15-20 Apr)
No - 41% (-6)
DK - 9% (NC)

Yes - 54% (+6)
No - 46% (-6)

[Clyde1998]

One issue is that Sturgeon truly believes that Scotland as an EU member state could hold on to the pound, while the EU has made it clear that all new member states are obligated to adopt the euro after a transitional period. Brussels has no real incentive to make an exception in the case of Scotland.

Not true. There are five requirements to join the Eurozone:

• Sound public finances – the government’s deficit must not be higher than 3% of GDP.
• Sustainable public finances – the government’s debt must not be higher than 60% of GDP.
• Durability of convergence – the country’s long-term interest rate must not be more than 2% above the rate of the three best performing Eurozone member states in terms of price stability.
• Price stability – the country’s Consumer Price Inflation (HICP) rate must not be more than 1.5% above the rate of the three best performing Eurozone member states.
• Exchange rate stability – the country’s existing currency must have been part of ERM II (Exchange Rate Mechanism II) for at least 2 years without severe tensions.

On point one. Scotland's current deficit is 7.8% of GDP (including a proportional share of North Sea Oil) according to the Scottish Government's figures, which is higher than the rate allowed before joining the Euro.

On point two. The UK national debt is currently just over £1.714tn. Scotland would most likely take a population share (8.4%) of the debt, which is £143.976bn or 95.2% of GDP (compared to 93.6% for the UK). Although, a large percentage of this is owned by the Bank of England, so it would be interesting to see if Scotland takes that debt, if Scotland doesn't have access to the central bank (and if they did they wouldn't need to join the Euro). 95.2% of GDP is much higher than the required 60% to join the Eurozone.

On point three. We can only, currently, judge Scotland on the UK's figure. The UK's current long term interest rate is 1.48%. The long term interest rate is based on 10 Year Treasury Bond Yields. I'm not sure who the three best performing Eurozone members are, but let's say that this is a pass.

On point four. As with point three, it has to be taken from the UK's figure, which is 0.5%. Which should met that requirement.

On point five. We don't know what Scotland's finances will be if and when Scotland becomes independent - so it's possible that the other four are all met by the time we get there. But the Pound Sterling is not and isn't going to be in the ERM2, unless the UK Government and British people have a pretty sudden change of heart. Therefore Scotland couldn't join the Eurozone on independence, and there's not point adopting a new currency, just to change it after two years.

tl;dr version:
Scotland cannot join the Eurozone on independence.

[Clyde1998]

tl;dr version:
Scotland cannot join the Eurozone on independence.

Right, but eventually an independent Scotland would have to join it. It might be 15 or 20 or 30 years after joining the EU but ultimately it would happen.

Let's remember that most of the Brussels elite firmly believe in the idea of a federal pan-European state. They are willing to strive for that goal through small incremental acts of increasing uniformity and centralisation but they have no doubt of what the endgame is. In such a future there is no room for heterogeneity among member states.

If Scotland never joins the ERM2, we will never join the Eurozone.

Joining the ERM2 is voluntary, therefore joining the Eurozone is voluntary:

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[Clyde1998]

The currency union with the rest of the UK would have made EU membership a lot, lot more complicated but I don't think that's on the table anymore, plus it was always a dumb idea!

I agree with you that it was a stupid idea - that I think lost the referendum for Yes last time.

I think having an independent currency pegged to the pound in the short term (at least), would work much better. If it's pegged 1:1 with Sterling, then we could continue to accept Bank of England bank notes in Scotland, as well.

[Clyde1998]

One issue is that for a referendum to happen it needs the consent of Westminster. Can they obtain that? They got it in 2011 after the SNP majority at Holyrood, but that was when 'consensus' (you idiots never learn) stated that independence would be defeated 70-30 and a referendum would bury the issue in the ground for good. Might be more difficult this time....

The Scottish Parliament is able to hold a "consultative referendum" (as opposed to a binding referendum) without Westminster's consent, as far as I understand it. If turnout in that referendum is very high (80%+) or the Yes vote is over 50% of the electorate, I think it would be very difficult for Westminster to ignore the result - especially if institutions, such as the EU, recognise the result.

[Clyde1998]

tl;dr version:
Scotland cannot join the Eurozone on independence.

Would an independent Scotland use the British pound?

I hope not. I didn't support that plan in 2014 and I don't now. I would prefer to have our own currency - initially pegged 1:1 with Sterling, to enable Sterling to still be accepted in Scotland for a period of time (much like Ireland used to have). After a period of time, probably a couple of years, the currency would become floating.

A recent poll has support for a second referendum at 37%, fyi.

To be fair, the question didn't make sense:

If a referendum were held tomorrow, on whether Scotland should leave or remain a member of the United Kingdom, how would you vote? (Excluding Undecided Voters)
To leave the United Kingdom: 45.3%
To remain in the United Kingdom: 54.7%

Any referendum question is almost certainly going to be the same as the 2014 question ("Should Scotland be an independent country?"), IMO, as that question was chosen by the Electoral Commission.

The question used in the poll doesn't actually ask about independence and there is no "membership" of the United Kingdom. At least when YouGov used to ask some convoluted question, such as this, they mentioned independence in the question - once they started asking the referendum question, support for independence rose in their polls.

The polls that ask the 2014 referendum question are averaging around 48% for independence; 52% against.

Additionally, polls don't really mean much when people aren't debating the issue like they are during a campaign. It's likely that the 'Yes' side would have differences from the 2014 proposal - such as the currency proposal and there would be less opposition from business leaders to Scotland becoming independent, if they're seeking to join the EU. I believe that the 'Yes' side will win any referendum held in the next couple of years.

We don't even know whether the EU would be willing to accept an independent Scotland as a member do we?

It's dependent on what the other 27 members want. If Scotland attempts to join the EU as part of the Article 50 negotiations, only 2/3rds of countries would have to accept the proposal - I don't know if ten countries would oppose Scotland's membership.

France, Germany and Spain are going to have elections in the coming year (Spain might not, but it seems likely) - which may effect the ability of Scotland to retain EU membership. If Spain elects a non-Rajoy led Government, then I can't see Spain vetoing an application from Scotland; particularly if it's a Podemos-led Government (who, IIRC, support a Catalan referendum).

[Clyde1998]

Autumn 2018 or Spring 2019 referendum. My Twitter feed has exploded with excitement.

[Clyde1998]

The SNP have already set up a website for the referendum - www.ref.scot - with a donation target of £1 million. There's very, very little chance of there not being a referendum now; unless the UK Government decides to block it...

[Clyde1998]

So... lets get this straight - Sturgeon is launching a campaign to secede from the UK on the basis of the UK withdrawing from the EU... in order to 'protect' Scotland from Brexit, in spite of the fact that we are a much bigger trading partner for Scotland and are far more closely legally entwined with them than we are with the EU. All this amidst Scotland's oil revenues circling the drain, Scottish support for independence lukewarm and the continued presence of Mariano Rajoy, no fan of Scottish independence, at the helm of the Spanish government. Remind me again how the SNP are the sensible level-headed pragmatists here.

The SNP were elected in May on a manifesto commitment to hold a referendum on independence in the event that the UK votes to leave the EU and Scotland votes remain. Scotland voted 62% to remain in the EU, the SNP made it clear that they wouldn't hold a referendum if the UK Government kept Scotland in the European Single Market - which doesn't look like it's going to happen.

The UK Government has said that they are going to retain all powers that the EU currently have once Brexit occurs, including farming and fishing - which are devolved issues. With the UK Government considering taking powers from the Scottish Parliament, it's a road that the SNP have been forced down.

Scotland does less trade with the rUK than official figures state, in my opinion. A sizeable percentage of Scottish exports to England would be to ports for shipping elsewhere in the world - similar to how the UK does a large amount of trade with the Netherlands in official trade figures. Trade figures take into account the next destination, rather than the final destination.

In the previous financial year, while oil revenues saw a huge drop - overall revenues in Scotland only fell 1%, as the reduction in oil price was offset by revenue increases in other industries that require oil to operate - such as transport. In such industries a low oil price is beneficial. The only reason the deficit increased was due to increased spending. Pretending that the Scottish economy is a one dimensional 'banana republic' isn't a position that you should take. Additionally, if Scottish independence occurs at around the same time as the UK leaving the EU, then there's a chance that UK-based headquarters could move to Scotland for an EU base - which would increase taxation intake. This is especially as apparently Dublin has been considered by some.

The last opinion poll on the subject, a Ipsos Mori poll for STV, put support for independence at 47%, compared to 46% for the union - others undecided. Other polls put support at between 43% & 44% when including undecided voters. The support when the previous referendum was called, around 30%, pales in comparison to the support now. Given that the result was radically different to the polling when the referendum was called, it's fair to say that the current support for it is irrelevant anyway.

On Spain, no-one in the Spanish Government has ever said that they'd veto Scotland's membership of the European Union. It's no secret that the Spanish Government doesn't support independence for Scotland, but they've never said they'd oppose it if it happens.

[Clyde1998]

On Spain, no-one in the Spanish Government has ever said that they'd veto Scotland's membership of the European Union. It's no secret that the Spanish Government doesn't support independence for Scotland, but they've never said they'd oppose it if it happens.

Exactly, Spain is not against an membership of Scotland to the EU, however, i believe Spain wouldn't approve an independent Scotland to have an automatic membership to the EU. If they want to be in the EU by their own right, they must go to the back of the line.

Also, just imagine if David Cameron, when calling the referendum, had established that the only way the UK could leave the EU was if all 4 countries of the UK voted Leave....

I'm certain Scotland would have to re-apply for membership in someway, although there's no line as such - otherwise no-one would've joined the EEC/EU since Turkey first applied in 1987. It's possible that Scotland could renegotiate membership of the EU between a 'Yes' vote and the date independence is completed.

The England edition of The Times today have reported on their front page that "Spain, Belgium, Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Slovakia could veto special treatment for Scotland". I'm not 100% sure what they're implying with that statement - as it could refer to a special treatment if Scotland votes for independence or for Scotland within the UK.

The big issue that most countries have after applying is adapting to meet EU requirements, while Scotland (I assume, at least) already meets the requirements as part of the UK. Which would imply that Scotland would get back into the EU at some point quite soon after independence at the latest (assuming that no-one does veto).

Just a quick note as to procedures: Scottish Government cannot actually call a referendum. It's up to the May Government to decide if it wants one or not. Either way, of course, welcome to yet another dumpster fire.

The British Government are damned if they do, damned if they don't. May's career would be over if she loses a referendum that she agrees too, but it will harden (although not necessarily grow) support for independence to block something that the Scottish Parliament has voted for - possibly leading to a Catalan situation.
In related news, Sinn Fein called for a Border Poll (referendum on Irish reunification) in Northern Ireland yesterday, while Plaid Cymru called for a Welsh Independence vote if Scotland leaves the UK. Brexit's going well - and it technically hasn't begun yet...

[Clyde1998]

YouGov (9-14 Mar) - Yes 37%; No 48%
Survation (8-13 Mar) - Yes 41%; No 48%

Neither poll outside those pollsters standard range and most of each poll was conducted before the announcement from Sturgeon about requesting a Section 30 order to hold a referendum. Additionally, YouGov still don't included sixteen and seventeen year-olds in their polling - despite being eligible voters.

Average of most recent poll from each pollster (YouGov, Survation, Ipsos Mori, BMG, Panelbase)
Yes - 42.4%
No - 47.4%

[Clyde1998]

The annual Scottish Social Attitudes survey results on independence was released today. The survey has been conducted every year, excluding 2008, since the Scottish Parliament was formed.

The poll uses a three option question - as to whether respondents would prefer independence, devolution within the UK or no Scottish Parliament within the UK. This year 46% said independence, 42% said devolution and 8% said no Parliament.

This represents a doubling in independence support since 2012 and the highest figure ever in this survey. It's also the first time that the independence option has been the highest single option.

The survey suggests that the biggest increase in independence support has come from younger voters:

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[Clyde1998]

However, the Scottish don't appear all that keen on the EU either. So maybe Scotland will leave the UK only to then seek EFTA membership... 😑

What happened it 2005 to cause a 20% drop in support for increasing the EU's powers? European Constitution?

[Clyde1998]

Just a quick note as to procedures: Scottish Government cannot actually call a referendum. It's up to the May Government to decide if it wants one or not. Either way, of course, welcome to yet another dumpster fire.

And they appear to have decided there won't be one (at least before the UK leaves the EU).

Independence parties still have other options:

• Hold a 'consultative' referendum that would be non-binding (the EU referendum was non-binding after all). This is, apparently, within the powers of the Scottish Parliament - to hold a consultative referendum on any issue.
• Dissolve the Scottish Parliament and hold election campaign as proxy referendum.
• Get another body to oversee a referendum, such as the European Union (a la the Montenegro referendum in 2006). This is the most unlikely option though.

Conservatives are suggesting that if a referendum is hold on the Scottish Government's timetable, Scots wouldn't know what the EU deal would look like. If the UK Government don't think that they'll know what the Brexit deal is going to look like in Autumn 2018/Spring 2019, when the two year negotiation period in Article 50 would expire in March 2019 - then they obviously believe there won't be a deal between the UK and the EU, IMO.

[Clyde1998]

Not hard to see Westminster use military force against Scotland if they issued an UDI.

FTFY

[Clyde1998]

Not hard to see Westminster use military force against Scotland if they issued an UDI.

FTFY

Generally modern Western European democracies have been very reluctant to use military force against their own citizens (unless involved in terrorism). In a scenario where a majority of Scots had voted for independence in a consultative referendum it would also be met with widespread international condemnation. The Swedes declined to use military force against Norway when it unilaterally seceded as far back as 1905, and I have a hard time seeing England do it against Scotland in this day and age (or Spain against Catalonia for that matter).

I can see Westminster deciding to use some sort of military force in Scotland, although I think that a full scale civil war is highly unlikely.
BTW, the SNP are holding their conference at the moment.

[Clyde1998]

Panelbase (13-17 Mar): Yes 42% (-2); No 53% (+2)

Panelbase have been the most no-friendly pollster since the EU referendum, closely followed by YouGov, but this is their largest no percentage since they've started polling on independence and is the largest no percentage in any opinion poll (which includes undecided voters) since the 4-7 August 2014 YouGov poll. A 2% movement in the numbers isn't statistically significant, however, but the next few polls will confirm or deny any trend.

Average of most recent poll from each pollster (YouGov, Survation, Ipsos Mori, BMG, Panelbase)
Yes - 42.0% (-0.4)
No - 47.8% (+0.4)

[Clyde1998]

Where did all the Wales stuff go btw? Never got around to reading it. 

The talk about Wales started here on a separate thread.

[Clyde1998]

The Scottish Parliament debate on holding a second referendum has been suspended, and thus today's vote on holding a second referendum has been postponed, due to the incident in London.

[Clyde1998]

The Scottish Parliament has passed an amended motion calling for a second referendum by 69 (SNP/Greens) to 59 (Conservatives/Labour/Lib Dems). The Green amendment, passed by the same margin, was to allow 16 and 17 year olds and EU Citizens to vote, as with other elections in Scotland.

Scottish Secretary David Mundell has already stated that the UK Government will oppose a referendum before Brexit is completed. Professor John Curtice seems to believe that the Scottish Government has the right to call a consultative referendum without the concent of the British Government.