Scottish independence referendum 2017?

[Beezer]

Sturgeon isn't in an enviable position. The final resolution of Brexit negotiations will likely provide the UK with a halfway decent deal. By that point the independence option will be a border with rUK, the euro, and oil at a signficantly lower price than where it was back in 2014 (not the kind of devo max choice Salmond was touting back then). My guess is she'll put off another referendum in the hope that Britain will run into some sort of major recession in the near future than can be blamed on the Brexit.

[Beezer]

What's the point in polling after such an emotional event? Eventually everything will settle down and any sort of 2nd referendum will be far closer than people might think.

[Beezer]

Latest YouGov poll has the "no" side ahead:





https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/07/30/brexit-fails-boost-support-scottish-independence/

[Beezer]

Sturgeon shelves plan for quick second Scottish independence referendum

Nicola Sturgeon has shelved plans for a quick second referendum on Scottish independence after dire spending figures and a fall in public support for leaving the UK.

The first minister told Holyrood on Tuesday that her government only planned to issue a consultation on a draft referendum bill – a measure which falls short of tabling new legislation in this year’s programme for government.

Two months after telling reporters a referendum was “highly likely” within the next two years, she told MSPs that that bill would now only be introduced if she believed it was the best option for Scotland.

Her officials later said that consultation process could start at some time in the next year, with no target date in mind for its launch or its conclusion. Sturgeon’s official legislative timetable, the programme for government, described the referendum as an option and not as a goal.

...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/06/nicola-sturgeon-shelves-quick-second-scottish-independence-referendum-bill

[Beezer]

Guess it's on again.

SNP's Nicola Sturgeon announces new independence referendum bill

A consultation gets under way next week on plans for a second Scottish independence referendum, the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed.

She told the party's Glasgow conference that an Independence Referendum Bill would be published next week.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37634338

[Beezer]

If it's framed as "Do we want to leave the UK to remain in the EU" I expect it'll pass handily. The last one was a vote for upheaval, this is a vote for status quo.

Well, it won't be framed that way since the EU has already stated in no uncertain terms that Scotland would have to reapply for membership. And that means Scotland is by no means assured EU membership.

[Beezer]

Is it happening?

Sturgeon: ‘Intransigent’ May to blame for second Scottish referendum

Theresa May’s government’s lack of flexibility in Brexit negotiations will be responsible for Scotland’s second independence referendum if it does arise, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said in a Times op-ed published Tuesday.

Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), accused May of refusing to address her country’s concerns in preparing for Britain’s exit from the EU. While she did not officially call for a second vote, Sturgeon said it would be justified.

“The SNP was re-elected to government with more votes and seats than Labour and the Tories combined. So as well as justification for a referendum, there is also a cast-iron mandate,” Sturgeon wrote.

The op-ed was published a day after a Times report claimed May’s government was preparing for the SNP to demand another independence referendum. The report expected the call to coincide with May’s decision to trigger Article 50 next month.

...

http://www.politico.eu/article/nicola-sturgeon-intransigent-may-to-blame-for-second-scottish-referendum/

[Beezer]

Guess Edinburgh is the Athens of the North after all...

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[Beezer]

It's habbening. Sturgeon announces second referendum if there's a hard brexit.

[Beezer]

However, the Scottish don't appear all that keen on the EU either. So maybe Scotland will leave the UK only to then seek EFTA membership... 😑