UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[EPG]

A prediction:

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/debateni/blogs/bill-white/projecting-the-result-of-the-may-2015-general-election-30824967.html

"No change" is probably a good prediction for most of the North, with five major parties (many of which hate each other) and an established independent MP contesting 18 FPTP seats, but there are some seats where inherent tensions make change more likely than others -

Fermanagh and South Tyrone is ultra-marginal (Sinn Féin 21,304 versus unionist 21,300 in 2010) and will depend on each community's turnout. What may help SF retain it is that the SDLP is in slow, long-term, secular decline. In Foyle, the SDLP now depends on at least 1,500 unionist tactical votes, which should keep them safe this time even while SF gets closer to first place in non-Westminster elections. Belfast South has a non-green natural majority and SF are running a candidate this time to split the green vote. The SDLP must defend this seat from the Democratic Unionists (winners of the 2011 Assembly election) and Alliance (who should benefit most from Ulster Unionist decline in this constituency). Belfast East is rather difficult to call safely for anyone, but surely the flag debate makes the communities too polarised to favour Naomi Long's holding her seat for Alliance. Still, Alliance have two small opportunities to win a seat in 2015, which is an improvement from ever.

History has not smiled on Upper Bann, but its population is growing and demographic change could leave it lost by the DUP to either the UUP or SF, on a bad day. Belfast North is probably safer than it looks for the DUP thanks to their public messaging about the need for a unionist pact, even if there eventually is none. North Down is inherently volatile. But, unlike the first group, we don't yet have any real reason to think these seats will change hands. You can safely drop your dinnerplates if there is change in any of the other 11 seats.

And in Britain, the Lib Dems even with 7% and 27 seats would still do better under almost any other electoral system, except of course for AV which they stupidly supported in the first half of this decade. They aren't really being advantaged by it; Ukip is just the latest party to be punished by it.

But let's be clear about one little joke in the article: Sinn Féin are not going into government in Whitehall.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

 Press baron Richard "dirty" Desmond gives a large cheque to UKIP, which suggests N&S publications (the Express and Star) will endorse Farage next year. No word how this affects the editorial stance of various other Desmond brands like Red Hot TV and the sadly sold off Asian Babes.

[EPG]

Jim Murphy MP wins Scottish Labour leadership 56-35-9 against Findlay and Boyack. Dugdale wins deputy leadership.

Murphy and Dugdale won better than their overall result among Labour politicians and ordinary members, while losing the union vote to left-wingers.

Lefties weep, but it seems that most of Scottish Labour did not agree that Miliband's problem is being too right-wing.

[politicus]

Jim Murphy MP wins Scottish Labour leadership 56-35-9 against Findlay and Boyack. Dugdale wins deputy leadership.

Murphy and Dugdale won better than their overall result among Labour politicians and ordinary members, while losing the union vote to left-wingers.

Lefties weep, but it seems that most of Scottish Labour did not agree that Miliband's problem is being too right-wing.

Good news for SNP. It will make it hard for Labour to attack them from the left.

[EPG]

Murphy seems to be more pro-devolution, based on his support of taxing powers and Findlay's support of Gordon Brown. There are multiple salient cleavages in Scotland (pro-anti devolution as well as left-right) as well as potential differences in general political competence between Murphy and Findlay which may be difficult to observe from abroad, so I do not know whether it is good news or not for Labour or the SNP.

[afleitch]

Labour selection process for Holborn and St Pancras entirely clean...
no, of course it's not.

[YL]

A YouGov Scottish poll gives Westminster voting intention as SNP 47 Lab 27 Con 16 LD 3 UKIP 3 Green 3.

It also gives independence referendum voting intentions of Yes 52 No 48.

[ChrisDR68]

Stephen Fisher's model currently has a slightly less dysfunctional Lab 299, Con 291, Lib Dem 29, Others 31 as its best guess (though I think he's not handling Scotland separately).

Probably the most interesting result would be where the Lib Dem total plus either of the main parties total equal a majority in the house of commons. You would need both main parties on about 298 with the Libs on about 30 for that scenario to happen.

Which way would the negotiating go? How much longer than the 5 days it took last time to form a government would be needed? Would Nick Clegg survive as Lib Dem leader during the negotiating process? 

Of course if 3 parties or more are needed for a majority in 2015 it could take weeks and weeks to sort out a coalition agreement. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Kerry Smith, the UKIP candidate selected for South Basildon and East Thurrock, then pushed aside for Mr Brown Envelopes, then reselected has himself quit after the MoS obtained a recording of him joking about shooting peasants and being rude about UKIP's LGBT group.

[YL]

Kerry Smith, the UKIP candidate selected for South Basildon and East Thurrock, then pushed aside for Mr Brown Envelopes, then reselected has himself quit after the MoS obtained a recording of him joking about shooting peasants and being rude about UKIP's LGBT group.

There was also the other candidate they had in between the first time for Smith and the Hamilton story, the one who resigned after that story about their general secretary.  Quite an entertaining selection, this one; perhaps it'll end up with Hamilton after all...

[YL]

Here's this week's YouGov summary.

12 Dec: Lab 34 Con 32 UKIP 14 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5
14 Dec: Con 32 Lab 32 UKIP 16 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
16 Dec: Lab 34 Con 32 UKIP 14 Green 8 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 5
17 Dec: Lab 34 Con 33 UKIP 16 LD 6 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 5
18 Dec: Con 33 Lab 33 UKIP 14 LD 8 Green 7 SNP/Plaid 4

Lib Dems may prefer to look at ICM, which puts them in a tie for third rather than fourth: Lab 33 Con 28 UKIP 14 LD 14 Green 5.  (There's no headline figure for SNP/Plaid, but it looks like it must be 5 or 6.)

Why the difference?  ICM reallocate 50% of don't knows back to their 2010 party, which boosts the Lib Dems from 11 to 14.  That 11 is already high by YouGov standards, though, so there's more to it than that.  ICM's effective sample size is quite small, so some of it may be sampling variation...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

UKIP suspends its entire Lambeth and North Croydon branch, including perennial party switcher Winston McKenzie for mysterious reasons.

UKIP backer Stuart Wheeler is apparently the man who is desperate to keep Hamilton under consideration for selection much against the wishes of Farage. In fact a UKIP member released the offending recording of Mr Smith to the Mail on Sunday as part of this intense factional war.

[YL]

Last two YouGov polls of 2014:
19 Dec: Lab 35 Con 30 UKIP 16 Green 8 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 4
21 Dec: Lab 34 Con 32 UKIP 15 Green 8 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 5

In other polls, MORI still has the Tories ahead and has a very high Green figure:
Con 32 Lab 29 UKIP 13 Green 9 LD 9 SNP 6.

Meanwhile TNS-BMRB and Opinium have both come out with 7 point Labour leads; the latter's figures are
Lab 36 Con 29 UKIP 16 LD 6 Green 5
(no SNP figure in the Observer article).

[YL]

Here's another prediction site (take with as much salt as you feel appropriate):
http://www.thehustings.co.uk/

They're predicting Clegg to lose his seat...

[Clyde1998]

They're predicting Clegg to lose his seat...

Interesting Ashcroft poll for Sheffield Hallam:

If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? (Of those likely to vote)
LAB - 33% (+17% compared to 2010 election)
CON - 23% (-1%)
LIB - 17% (-36%)
UKIP - 14% (+12%)
GRN - 12% (+10%)
OTH - 1% (-3%)
Swing - 26.5% from LIB to LAB

And thinking specifically about your own constituency and the candidates who are likely to stand there, which party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency at the next general election? (Of those likely to vote)
LAB - 32% (-1% on previous question)
LIB - 26% (+9%)
CON - 18% (-5%)
UKIP - 14% (N/C)
GRN - 11% (-1%)
OTH - <0.5%
Swing - 8% from LIB to LAB

Both polls are unweighted on 2010 voting share. The second question with weighing on 2010 vote shows are 3% Lib Dem lead.

Could be a Labour gain...

Interesting the change in opinion when asked specifically about their own constituency as well...

[Vega]

If Clegg were to loose his seat, would Cable take over as leader?

[You kip if you want to...]

If Clegg were to loose his seat, would Cable take over as leader?

No, probably not, but he may be a candidate. He'd also have to hold his seat in Twickenham. He's favoured there, but the Tories won it in the May local elections

On Hallam, I wouldn't exactly be feeling confident if I was Clegg. It's not helpful to him that Labour seem to have selected a really great candidate there as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour can only win Hallam via a vote-split fluke.

[Vega]

Labour can only win Hallam via a vote-split fluke.

Which, as of right now, isn't totally unlikely.

I do hope Clegg and the rest of his colleagues get knocked out, though.

[EPG]

Labour activists are more eager to beat one Nick Clegg than two dozen Tories, which is good for...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I tend to think that a noisy Labour campaign would be counterproductive. Of course activists and resources won't be directed there anyway; as fun as trolling can be, this is a seat where Labour only polled 16% in 2010. If a freak win happens a freak win happens, but its not worth trying for.

[Clyde1998]

I tend to think that a noisy Labour campaign would be counterproductive. Of course activists and resources won't be directed there anyway; as fun as trolling can be, this is a seat where Labour only polled 16% in 2010. If a freak win happens a freak win happens, but its not worth trying for.

If it does happen it would be the "Portillo moment" of the election.

I think though - it's Lib Dem voters in 2010 moving to Labour that will be the only way Labour would win that seat. I doubt enough will move for a Labour gain.

[Lurker]

If the Lib-Dems really do as disasterously as they're polling at the moment, barely 1/3 of their level at the last GE, I would't be surprised if Clegg (or anyone else in the party) lost his seat.

Can't really see them staying this low though - but it would be damn funny.

[Vega]

If Clegg looses, than it's a sign Labour is in for, or already had a great night.

[YL]

I tend to think that a noisy Labour campaign would be counterproductive. Of course activists and resources won't be directed there anyway; as fun as trolling can be, this is a seat where Labour only polled 16% in 2010. If a freak win happens a freak win happens, but its not worth trying for.

I'm not close enough to either party's local leadership to know what they think is really going on, but my impression is that the local Labour party are trying to win, and think that they can, while the local Lib Dems are worried.  Perhaps that is just because of the Ashcroft poll, which I don't entirely trust, but you have to remember that that 16% was the result of twenty years of a tactical squeeze which the beneficiaries of have pretty explicitly abandoned.

It is still of course a very middle class constituency, which doesn't make it easy for Labour, though there's middle class and middle class...