ME-PPP: Biden +11

[ON Progressive]

Biden 53
Trump 42

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/gideon-continues-to-lead-collins-by-4/

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Rise and shine, y'all! It's polling time again!

Yeah, Maine is a state that I expect to snap back overall towards the Democrats (though I don't anticipate Biden will carry ME-02).

More broadly, this poll reinforces the indication that Trump hasn't made any in-roads in New England across the past four years.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rise and shine, y'all! It's polling time again!

Yeah, Maine is a state that I expect to snap back overall towards the Democrats (though I don't anticipate Biden will carry ME-02).

More broadly, this poll reinforces the indication that Trump hasn't made any in-roads in New England across the past four years.  

I also think Trump is the favorite in ME-02.  But with a margin like this, it would get interesting.  Trump won the district in 2016 by 10% while losing the state by 3%, while Johnson got 5%.  And this year Maine will be using RCV for the presidential election.

[Person Man]

Rise and shine, y'all! It's polling time again!

Yeah, Maine is a state that I expect to snap back overall towards the Democrats (though I don't anticipate Biden will carry ME-02).

More broadly, this poll reinforces the indication that Trump hasn't made any in-roads in New England across the past four years.  

I also think Trump is the favorite in ME-02.  But with a margin like this, it would get interesting.  Trump won the district in 2016 by 10% while losing the state by 3%, while Johnson got 5%.  And this year Maine will be using RCV for the presidential election.

Biden could win it. Do you think Maine-2 simply voted Republican in 2016 because they thought the last days of the Obama administration had treated them unfairly with regards to creating a large fish haven in a major fish area? I think Trump tried to relegalize fishing there but he did it before the national conversation had shifted.

[BobbieMac]

This puts Biden +10 nationally on UNS.

RE: Maine 02 - Democrats won the House seat back in 2018. Interestingly, they won as a result of a ranked vote system (controversial for some reason in the US, but used regularly round the world with no problems). Now I've read a number of wikipedia pages but I cant get my head around something - is this being used for the Presidential election as well? If so, this would surely change the dynamics of the election, as if neither Biden or Trump get over 50% of the votes, third party voter preferences would dictate the result of the election.

[G_Master]

Obviously this is good for Biden but it kind of sucks that they didn't break it down by Congressional District. In a worst-case-scenario type situation for Biden, having either Maine or Nebraska's 2nd Congressional Districts could be a potential tie-breaking scenario, and, in my opinion, I think it is not unreasonable to think that both could swing either way this election.

[wbrocks67]

I don't quite possibly see how anyone could say that ME-02 is lean Trump. It's a straight tossup at this point. There's nothing that points to Trump winning there right now.

[Gustaf]

Perfectly in line with a national Biden lead of about 10%.

[Pulaski]

A little concerning that Gideon underperforms Biden by 7 points.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This puts Biden +10 nationally on UNS.

RE: Maine 02 - Democrats won the House seat back in 2018. Interestingly, they won as a result of a ranked vote system (controversial for some reason in the US, but used regularly round the world with no problems). Now I've read a number of wikipedia pages but I cant get my head around something - is this being used for the Presidential election as well? If so, this would surely change the dynamics of the election, as if neither Biden or Trump get over 50% of the votes, third party voter preferences would dictate the result of the election.

Yes, Maine is using RCV for the presidential election (for the first time).  Since the state also splits EV, this means that they are actually running *three* simultaneous RCV elections: one for each Congressional district and one for the statewide vote.

EDIT: RCV may or may not be used this year.  See post below from TiltsAreUnderrated.

[Calthrina950]

Biden is performing much more strongly than Clinton in this state, although he's not approaching Obama's 2008/2012 totals. Maine can probably be classified as Likely/Safe Democratic at this point, closer to Safe than Likely. Biden is probably within 5% in ME-02, which will be of aid to Golden (who will almost certainly outrun him). And of course, this will provide a boost to Gideon as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Democratic-tilting swing state is Safe D in an election that’s Safe D. Not much of a surprise (although I think it will be a little closer than that).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Janet Mills' poor decision to delay the implementation of RCV in presidential elections until recently means the Republican Party has been able to attempt to run a veto referendum. They have now submitted signatures and, if enough are deemed valid by Maine's Secretary of State, a veto referendum will be on the ballot in November and, by virtue of its presence, RCV will not be used for the 2020 presidential election.

Extra poll details:

July 2-3
1022 voters
MoE: 3.1%

Undecided 11%

[wbrocks67]

A little concerning that Gideon underperforms Biden by 7 points.

She's still a bit unknown, but clearly she has the upper hand since undecideds clearly lean Biden

[Sir Mohamed]

If Biden wins ME by 11, which is possible, he should also win ME-02. The explanation Gideon underperforming Biden seems to be name ID. Collins just getting to 42% when she won in landslides before is very concerning for her. Anyway, I wish we had more high quality polls from this state, like Marquette or Fox News.

[WD]

Also Golden should be able to survive with these numbers.

[BobbieMac]

Janet Mills' poor decision to delay the implementation of RCV in presidential elections until recently means the Republican Party has been able to attempt to run a veto referendum. They have now submitted signatures and, if enough are deemed valid by Maine's Secretary of State, a veto referendum will be on the ballot in November and, by virtue of its presence, RCV will not be used for the 2020 presidential election.

Extra poll details:

July 2-3
1022 voters
MoE: 3.1%

Undecided 11%

Do we think RCV would benefit either Biden or Trump, or would it have made no difference?

I see in 2016 the Libertarians had way more votes than the Greens, presumably more would have put Trump as 2nd choice than Clinton?

[Gracile]

If Biden wins ME by 11, which is possible, he should also win ME-02. The explanation Gideon underperforming Biden seems to be name ID. Collins just getting to 42% when she won in landslides before is very concerning for her. Anyway, I wish we had more high quality polls from this state, like Marquette or Fox News.

No, that's not at all guaranteed. ME-02 voted 13% to the right of the state in the 2016 presidential election, 11% to the right of the state in the 2018 gubernatorial election, and 16% to the right of the state when comparing Jared Golden's victory to the state congressional margin (after RCV, of course). If you apply those numbers to this poll, it would indicate a tie to a Trump victory of a few points. Definitely not a district Biden should win in that circumstance.

[Person Man]

Do you think I was correct at all about why Trump is so popular upstate? You think it will go back to normal if the GOP runs an ordinary hard-righter or center-righter without Trump's unique antics?

[kph14]

Ranked-choice voting in the presidential elections will be stayed in this elections if the Secretary of State finds that the Maine GOP has gathered enough valid signatures for a veto referendum, which they claim that they have



https://news.ballotpedia.org/2020/06/17/maine-republican-party-files-signatures-for-veto-referendum-to-repeal-ranked-choice-voting-for-presidential-elections/

[Tender Branson]

Bizarre that they polled over 1.000 Mainers, but didn't manage to release results for the 2 Congressional districts.

[woodley park]

How did ME-02 become Likely R seemingly overnight? Didn't Obama win it handily in '08 and '12? Is it going to stay Likely R even come 2024, or do you all think Trump's brand of politics is just uniquely suited to the district?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I always knew that Maine would swing back in a pretty big way. Those three electors are pretty much safe if you ask me with the one from ME-2 looking somewhat surprisingly more attainable too.

I would like to see some more polling of the state's individual congressional districts though.

[TML]

How did ME-02 become Likely R seemingly overnight? Didn't Obama win it handily in '08 and '12? Is it going to stay Likely R even come 2024, or do you all think Trump's brand of politics is just uniquely suited to the district?

Trump won northern Maine by virtue of his economic populism during the 2016 campaign. In 2018, Mills only lost this district by about 3 points while winning statewide by 7 points. For 2020, I would want to see polling specific to this district before deciding which side is favored here.

[Sirius_]

Rise and shine, y'all! It's polling time again!

Yeah, Maine is a state that I expect to snap back overall towards the Democrats (though I don't anticipate Biden will carry ME-02).

More broadly, this poll reinforces the indication that Trump hasn't made any in-roads in New England across the past four years.  

I also think Trump is the favorite in ME-02.  But with a margin like this, it would get interesting.  Trump won the district in 2016 by 10% while losing the state by 3%, while Johnson got 5%.  And this year Maine will be using RCV for the presidential election.

Trump only won the 2nd district by 10 because of an overly large 3rd party vote. He isn't actually that popular in the district, only getting 51% in 2016 and the dems won it in 2018. With Trump's decreased popularity, the reduced appetite for 3rd parties, and the introduction of RCV I expect the 2nd district to be a tossup.