Univision/UH: Cornyn +1

[Nyvin]

Ok beto lost by 2.6 points to Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz is not a strong candidate and 2018 was a good Dem year, particularly in Texas.

It is extremely unlikely this race will be competitive in 2020.

Since when was Ted Cruz ever a bad candidate? He certainly isn't the most personable candidate, but he didn't have any scandals or major problems that caused the race to be close. Texas just isn't the safe Republican state it was before. Reality bites for Republicans.

Seriously? Ted Cruz consistently underperforms generic R margins because he is viewed unfavorably by even a majority of Texans due to his complete lack of charisma, obvious further political ambitions, and generally annoying attitude that makes him work poorly with others - even within his own party. In what way is he not a bad candidate?

Then what about the State House?   Why did it follow more to the Senate race rather than the Governor race in terms of votes?   The Republicans only won the State House vote by 5.94% in 2018.   That's substantially lower than Trump's numbers and Trump's numbers in 2016 were already bad when compared to previous elections.  

When you look at the Congressional House races, the Republicans only won by 3.4%.

This idea that Cruz vs O'Rourke was just "bad candidate vs good candidate" is nonsense.   There's way too much data pointing at something else going on.

[Nyvin]

Nice try, but every statewide Republican onverperformed Cruz in 2016. Every satewide Republican except him won Tarrant County, all but Paxton won Williamson County, all but Paxton/Patrick/Miller won Jefferson and Nueces.

Paxton won by 3.5, Republicans won the popular vote for House by 3.4 (maybe something like 3.7 or 3.8 when you adjust for the uncontested Democratic seats), Cruz won by 2.6. What a dramatic underperformance by Cruz.

Abbott won by 13, Bush won by 10, Hegar won by 9, the rail commissioner candidate won by 10.

Also, rich of you to invoke the House Popular Vote when we're not allowed to use that to argue Iowa could vote Dem.

All those numbers, except maybe Abbott's, are still pretty bad when compared to pre-2016 numbers.