Redistricting victims next cycle.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Im not sure who gets screwed out in this AL map, but this could be a likely map plan

[Strudelcutie4427]

Im not sure who gets screwed out in this AL map, but this could be a likely map plan

No, it can't because the map violates VRA. And an Alabama VRA seat requires something like 55% BVAP because the extreme Black/White partisanship can't reliability elect a person of color unless there is a larger than normal number of AAs present. However you do touch on something unique to Alabama in the deep South: if the VRA was no a thing, R's could go 7/6-0.

Republicans left TN-05 as a Nashville seat because their incumbents did not want to deal with seats that were less heavy Republican. I do not see how this would change after 2020.

More time has passed since the Democrats were competitive in rural middle Tennessee, so I could see the calculus changing for the Republicans. But I agree that it is more likely the Republicans will leave it as a Likely D seat.

Not a chance. In 2010, TN R's feared (like AR Dems hoped) that the Obama coalition was only temporary, and southern whites could return to the Dems. That hasn't happened. In hindsight, leaving TN05 as a Dem seat was a bad move: it's easy to sink the city and the surrounding seats are all R+20 or more.

The purple seat here is 51% black and D+11. I think that given that blacks dominate the dem primary vote there, it’s guaranteed to send a black dem to congress

[Strudelcutie4427]

Yeah, Cooper's a goner.   Whatevs, we can make that seat up elsewhere.

Yeah, well, just wait until Taylor Swift endorses the Democrats running in all 3 districts cracking Nashville and the gerrymander collapses.

I see your Taylor and raise you Carrie Underwood

[Strudelcutie4427]

This should basically eliminate Jim Cooper

1. R+28
2. R+19
3. R+20
4. R+16
5. R+14
6. R+15
7. R+14
8. R+17
9. D+23

[Strudelcutie4427]

MA has pending legislation to get an independent commission. If that happens I think atleast 3 or 4 of the current delegation gets shafted by either double bunking (Kennedy, Lynch, Presley, Trajan?) or being drawn into more competitive districts (McGovern, Keating)

[Strudelcutie4427]

MA has pending legislation to get an independent commission. If that happens I think atleast 3 or 4 of the current delegation gets shafted by either double bunking (Kennedy, Lynch, Presley, Trajan?) or being drawn into more competitive districts (McGovern, Keating)

I think the commision might take into account incumbents like NJ does.

That might be difficult since 4 of them are in core Boston (Kennedy, Lynch, Presley, Clark). And the wording says that lines should respect municipal boundaries, and not be drawn to dilute voters of certain parties or race. So the 2 I most likely see are MA-2 becoming primarily a Central MA swing seat by taking Amherst/Northampton out and MA-9 becoming a south shore swing district taking New Bedford and Fall River out and adding The parts of Plymouth/E Norfolk that are in 8

[Strudelcutie4427]

"gerrymandering is bad" - atlas dems

"make a 14-3 dem gerrymander in Illinois" - atlas dems

Don’t forget their idea to spaghetti strip NY into 23-3

[Strudelcutie4427]

MA has pending legislation to get an independent commission. If that happens I think atleast 3 or 4 of the current delegation gets shafted by either double bunking (Kennedy, Lynch, Presley, Trajan?) or being drawn into more competitive districts (McGovern, Keating)

I think the commision might take into account incumbents like NJ does.

That might be difficult since 4 of them are in core Boston (Kennedy, Lynch, Presley, Clark). And the wording says that lines should respect municipal boundaries, and not be drawn to dilute voters of certain parties or race. So the 2 I most likely see are MA-2 becoming primarily a Central MA swing seat by taking Amherst/Northampton out and MA-9 becoming a south shore swing district taking New Bedford and Fall River out and adding The parts of Plymouth/E Norfolk that are in 8

Making a swing seat out of central Massachusetts is a stretch unless it was specifically designed to be a swing district, and the Democratic legislature has no incentive to do so. You have to draw the lines in a very deliberate manner to get a true swing district out of central Mass.

A swing district in the southeast is probably the best that Republicans could hope for.

 "Proportional Representation"


1. D+18 (Springfield, Amherst) NEAL
2. R+1 (Fitchburg, Ludlow) OPEN SEAT
3. D+15 (Worcester, Waltham) MCGOVERN
4. D+19 (Quincy, Newton) KENNEDY
5. D+13 (Malden, Lynn) MOULTON vs CLARK
6. D+7 (Lowell, Lawrence) TRAHAN
7. D+34 (Boston, Cambridge) PRESLEY vs LYNCH (Lynch retires or runs for Senate)
8. EVEN (Weymouth, Taunton) OPEN SEAT
9. D+6 (New Bedford, Plymouth) KEATING

"PRIORITIZE COMPETITION"


1. Springfield, Amherst (D+18) NEAL
2. Worcester, Gardner (D+2) MCGOVERN (way too liberal for this MA-2)
3. Lowell, Fitchburg (D+3) TRAHAN
4. Quincy, Newton (D+19) KENNEDY
5. Framingham, Waltham (D+17) CLARK
6. Lawrence, Lynn (D+10) MOULTON
7. Boston, Cambridge (D+34) PRESLEY vs LYNCH (again, Lynch probably retires or runs for Senate)
8. Fall River, New Bedford (D+4) OPEN
9. Weymouth, Plymouth (D+2) KEATING

Districts 2, 3, 8, and 9 could be highly competitive seats

[Strudelcutie4427]

The problem with a “Republican leaning” seat in MA is that there are too few Republicans to actually run for them.

Under my Prioritize Competition map, i could see the following Reps running:

District 2: (Worcester) Sheriff Lew Evangelidis or Lt Gov. Karyn Polito
District 3: (Merrimack Valley): Sen. Dean Tran
District 8: (Bristol) Sheriff Thomas Hodgson
District 9: (South Shore) Mayor Bob Hedlund or Geoff Diehl