Azmagic8, thank you for your great job of analyzing your state. I learned a lot just by reading your post. Kudos
My take is that Arizona
is becoming more moderate and will transcend into a battleground state in 2012. My reasoning behind this is simply that John McCain performed worse in his home state than George W. Bush did four years earlier, and while I understand that 2004 and 2008 were two entirely different election cycles, it just surprises me how McCain was not able to win his state by a larger margin. He's served as U.S. Senator from Arizona for how long now, 30+ years? Most Senators who have served that long have built up stature and should be indestructible in statewide elections. However, it may not have been all McCain's fault himself as it may have been his terrible selection as Sarah Palin as his running mate. Her divisive rhetoric (Obama palling around with terrorists, the pro-American parts of the country, etc.) and deeply conservative views on the social issues probably didn't play so well in Arizona, particularly among the state's growing Latino community. One also has to consider that as well - the growing Latino population will definitely make Arizona a swing state in 2012 especially if it's a neutral or another relatively Democratic year and if Republicans keep up their anti-immigration talk (insert Chris Simcox into this equation). Simcox is definitely going to attack McCain from the right and will grill him on his "pro-amnesty" views on illegal immigration, which I think puts McCain in a bind: if he goes Tom Tancredo style, he risks alienating the state's large Latino community and that will hurt him in the general election; however, if he stays the course and sticks to his "liberal" views on immigration, it may antagonize the far-right wingers who mostly vote in GOP primaries, so anything is possible - it just depends on *which* McCain we see emerge. I still think he will retain his seat simply for the fact that Senators who have served as long as he has are probably going to be there until they retire or die. I think McCain will stick to his position simply because he's the incumbent, his seniority status, he has statewide name recognition, and with Janet Napolitano out of the way, he doesn't have to worry about a serious threat from a Democrat in the general election.
On a side note: regarding presidential elections again, I think the only way Republicans will hold onto Arizona in 2012 is if Obama becomes another Jimmy Carter, the economy tanks and Republicans come back into power in a repeat of the 1994 Republican Revolution. Either way, I won't be surprised if the pundits list Arizona as a swing state in 2012.
