Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

The LISPOP seat projector (as of yesterday) is also showing a PC majority:
PC - 67
NDP - 52
Liberal - 5

[PeteB]

Some interesting stats from early voters  (draw your own conclusions)

Top 10 ridings in advance voting

1.Kingston and the Islands
2. Simcoe-Grey
3. Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
4. Orléans
5. Guelph
6. Simcoe North
7. Northumberland-Peterborough South
8. Ottawa Centre
9. Toronto-Danforth
10. Burlington

and

Top 10 Ridings with biggest % increase in advance turnout
1. Kitchener South-Hespeler
2. Brampton West
3. Markham-Unionville
4. Brampton South
5. Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill
6. Markham Stouffville
7. University-Rosedale
8. Davenport
9. Etobicoke North
10. Toronto-Danforth

[PeteB]

Well yeah.  It's obviously a very progressive minded riding that has about 20% of the electorate that flips between the Liberals and the NDP.  It was stunning to see Dewar lose too, but not surprising really when one is wearing their "sober political analysis" hat, given the dynamics of the riding and what happened in the federal race.

I was on the fence for a while about the riding in 2015. Had I trusted our numbers more, I would've predicted a Liberal win, but instead I relied too much on a uniform swing prediction in the riding and predicted Dewar would win and got burned. Same thing happened for St. John's East, too.  I did predict the Liberals would win Dartmouth and Halifax which got a lot of push-back, but ultimately I proved to be correct.

Anyway, our numbers show the NDP should win Ottawa Centre, so I'm comfortable with making that call this time.

I still think Naqvi may win, but if the Liberal vote totally implodes, it may be an easy NDP win.

[PeteB]

Kingston and the Islands - Leaning NDP riding
Simcoe-Grey - Safe PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Titanium PC
Orleans - Probably going PC
Guelph - Greens are favoured, with the NDP close behind
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Should go PC
Ottawa Centre - Likely to go NDP
Toronto-Danforth - Very NDP
Burlington - Probably going PC, but the Mainstreet poll had it closer than I thought it would be

Kitchener South-Hespeler - Probably PC
Brampton West - Should go NDP
Markham-Unionville - Very safely PC
Brampton South - Close PC/NDP race
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Very safely PC
Markham Stouffville - Very safely PC
University-Rosedale - Should go NDP
Davenport - Should go NDP
Etobicoke North - Ford's riding, should go PC.
Toronto-Danforth - See above

So basically we have 11 safe or likely PC ridings in those 19. Not great news.

A lot of the top 10 advance voting ridings are traditionally PC ridings, where the senior population votes early.  BTW, I do think that Kingston and the Islands is now Safe NDP.

OTOH you would think that many of the top 10 % increase ridings will flip - so I read that as good indications for NDP in Kitchener South Hespeler, University Rosedale and Davenport.

If there is one riding on these lists that is a mystery to me, that's Toronto Danforth.  That's Peter Tabuns' riding, and arguably the safest NDP seat in Toronto - why so many advance votes?

[PeteB]

The following graph was borrowed from tooclosetocall.ca:



So, collating this:

1. Probability of some kind of PC government: 79%
2. Probability of some kind of NDP government:20%
3. Probability of some kind of minority government:28%

[PeteB]

Kingston and the Islands - Leaning NDP riding
Simcoe-Grey - Safe PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Titanium PC
Orleans - Probably going PC
Guelph - Greens are favoured, with the NDP close behind
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Should go PC
Ottawa Centre - Likely to go NDP
Toronto-Danforth - Very NDP
Burlington - Probably going PC, but the Mainstreet poll had it closer than I thought it would be

Kitchener South-Hespeler - Probably PC
Brampton West - Should go NDP
Markham-Unionville - Very safely PC
Brampton South - Close PC/NDP race
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Very safely PC
Markham Stouffville - Very safely PC
University-Rosedale - Should go NDP
Davenport - Should go NDP
Etobicoke North - Ford's riding, should go PC.
Toronto-Danforth - See above

So basically we have 11 safe or likely PC ridings in those 19. Not great news.

A lot of the top 10 advance voting ridings are traditionally PC ridings, where the senior population votes early.  BTW, I do think that Kingston and the Islands is now Safe NDP.

OTOH you would think that many of the top 10 % increase ridings will flip - so I read that as good indications for NDP in Kitchener South Hespeler, University Rosedale and Davenport.

If there is one riding on these lists that is a mystery to me, that's Toronto Danforth.  That's Peter Tabuns' riding, and arguably the safest NDP seat in Toronto - why so many advance votes?

I'm going to be optimistic here (which has been hard this past week and a half) and say Toronto-Danforth doing this could suggest NDP enthusiasm.

Could be, but then why not Parkdale High Park, Beaches East York, Toronto Centre or Spadina - Ft. York?

[PeteB]

Kingston and the Islands - Leaning NDP riding
Simcoe-Grey - Safe PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Titanium PC
Orleans - Probably going PC
Guelph - Greens are favoured, with the NDP close behind
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Should go PC
Ottawa Centre - Likely to go NDP
Toronto-Danforth - Very NDP
Burlington - Probably going PC, but the Mainstreet poll had it closer than I thought it would be

Kitchener South-Hespeler - Probably PC
Brampton West - Should go NDP
Markham-Unionville - Very safely PC
Brampton South - Close PC/NDP race
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Very safely PC
Markham Stouffville - Very safely PC
University-Rosedale - Should go NDP
Davenport - Should go NDP
Etobicoke North - Ford's riding, should go PC.
Toronto-Danforth - See above

So basically we have 11 safe or likely PC ridings in those 19. Not great news.

A lot of the top 10 advance voting ridings are traditionally PC ridings, where the senior population votes early.  BTW, I do think that Kingston and the Islands is now Safe NDP.

OTOH you would think that many of the top 10 % increase ridings will flip - so I read that as good indications for NDP in Kitchener South Hespeler, University Rosedale and Davenport.

If there is one riding on these lists that is a mystery to me, that's Toronto Danforth.  That's Peter Tabuns' riding, and arguably the safest NDP seat in Toronto - why so many advance votes?

I'm going to be optimistic here (which has been hard this past week and a half) and say Toronto-Danforth doing this could suggest NDP enthusiasm.

Could be, but then why not Parkdale High Park, Beaches East York, Toronto Centre or Spadina - Ft. York?

Parkdale-High Park - has only a recent history of being a Strong NDP riding, thanks in part to Cheri DiNovo's win in 2006 (I think) the old Parkdale looked like an NDP seat but was held by the Liberals, even in 1990.

Toronto Centre - Again, there have been blocks of strong NDP support but overall this has been a Liberal riding, with NDP swings.
Spadina-Fort York - See above, but here the old For York riding leaned much more to the NDP.
-> demographically with the Condo boom these two ridings have become strongholds for Progressives, that are swinging between the NDP and Liberals

Beaches-East York- Interesting mix, the East York area is much working class, ethnically mixed and tends to swing between the OLP/NDP. Beaches used to be much more of a strong NDP area but this area has become much wealthier.

Toronto-Danforth - the NDP history here goes way back, Riverdale has been held by the NDP continuously since 1964. Demographically this is still a left-progressive area but has been home to strong NDP personalities like Jack Layton, Marylin Churley, Peter Tabuns, Paula Fletcher... the NDP brand is just really strong here and the grassroots NDP community are highly active.

I don't dispute any of this.  But then, if the NDP enthusiasm is there in inner city TO, why don't all these ridings show up on the Top 10 % Increase list, and yet Toronto Danforth does?  Especially since imho, Tabuns would win Danforth, even if that was the last NDP seat in Ontario.

[PeteB]

And based on the two polls that just came out and the TCTC website seat simulator:


POLLARA
PC - 70 seats
NDP - 52 seats
Liberal - 1 seat
Green - 1 seat (assuming Greens have at least 5% - otherwise it goes NDP)

IPSOS
PC - 76 seats
NDP - 46 seats
Liberal - 1 seat
Green - 1 seat (assuming Greens have at least 5% - otherwise it goes PC)

[PeteB]

I was also doing some sensitivity analysis, based on the Pollara poll.  In order for PC and NDP to be at least tied at 62 seats each, one of these three scenarios needs to happen:

1. 5% of the Liberal vote needs to cross over to the NDP
(i.e. the vote needs to be PC-38%, NDP-43%, Liberal-12%)

OR

2. 2.5% of the PC vote needs to cross over to the NDP
(i.e. the vote needs to be PC-35.5%, NDP-40.5%, Liberal-17%)

OR

3. 4% of the PC vote shifts, equally split into Liberal and PC camps
(i.e. the vote needs to be PC-34%, NDP-40%, Liberal-19%)

Of course, these are simplistic scenarios on a suspect simulator, but that is a high level overview.

[PeteB]

Mainstreet's last riding polls sure seem to be overstating PC support.  30% in St. Paul's with Ford leading them?  I doubt it.  30% in University-Rosedale - did they mainly poll people in Rosedale?

It does seem strange unless ex-Liberal voters all decided to jump ship and vote PC. But I doubt that.

[PeteB]

Final LISPOP seat projection:
PC - 69
NDP - 50
Liberal - 4
Green - 1

[PeteB]

Did I hear someone say herding?

[PeteB]

Hatman - Around what time tomorrow will we see the riding projections. I know overall it is 67-75 PC, 41-49 NDP, 5-10 Liberal and 1 Green but be interested to see which ones.

Sometime in the AM, I hope.

Looked at the EKOS poll - some interesting results:

* The millenials breaking for PC over NDP is a little bit of a surprise.

* it's not new but it's fun to see that this would be an easy NDP win, if only women voted.

* I would really like to meet the 9% of the polled who still think Liberals will form government.

* I am not particularly surprised about the higher income, higher education and higher class breaking for the NDP, but it does indicate unease of the "enlightened classes" with Doug Ford

[PeteB]

On the Ipsos poll, the party numbers were:

PC 39, NDP 36, Lib 19,

but the Best Premier numbers were:

Horwath 41, Ford 34, Wynne 20.


So 5% of Ontario voters want a PC government led by Andrea Horwath.

No, but those 5% would probably be thrilled if PC wins a majority, Ford loses his seat, and Elliott is selected as the new PC leader and Premier.

[PeteB]

On the Ipsos poll, the party numbers were:

PC 39, NDP 36, Lib 19,

but the Best Premier numbers were:

Horwath 41, Ford 34, Wynne 20.


So 5% of Ontario voters want a PC government led by Andrea Horwath.

No, but those 5% would probably be thrilled if PC wins a majority, Ford loses his seat, and Elliott is selected as the new PC leader and Premier.

I think there have been some other comments similar to this. The idea that Doug Ford would step down if he loses his seat but leads the P.Cs to a majority government is even more ridiculous than wishful thinking.

Who ever spoke about stepping down ?

And Ford will NOT lose his seat - this just shows the confusion and unhappiness with the choices on offer, with many voters.  I was just translating the cerebral logic in many voters.

[PeteB]

The Liberals aren't dying, people. I've taken issue with some of what Al has said in this thread, but he is spot on here.

Well, there are two basic scenarios that could happen post-election. One is that the elections slowly transition towards that of the western provinces, with a two-party system. The other scenario is that this is merely a blip like the federal election of 2011, and the Libs will be back in greater numbers.

The main deciding point between these two outcomes is whether the NDP wins tonight. If the NDP wins outright, then the Libs might be boned as the NDP takes up the mantle of main left-wing party. The NDP will have won the election without a major bunch of seats from the 905, something that has been necessary for a long time. However, polls do not suggest a NDP majority, so the worst case scenario for the Libs is backing a minority govt of any type. They will end up with the image of merely playing lackey to whatever party is in power. They will probably be punished in the next election, meaning that the libs would have been out of power for 10ish years.

Better for the Libs is a PC majority. In this scenario, they can rebuild their party from the outside, and argue the other two are extremes nobody in their right mind wants. The libs still have institutional strength in voters minds and in the media. these factors can be leveraged to rebuild the party post-2018. If the libs are backing a minority government though, given time, then these factors will gradually leave the party apparatus.

Key to this though is the size of the lib caucus. 10 seats or more probably means a safer future - barring backing a minority government, while 3 or less seats is going to be hard to recover from.

As long as the PC and NDP are so far away from the political center, there is no worry for the Liberals, even if they don't do well today.  Ontario tends to go to the middle-of-the-road politics and that will not change; certainly not while the economic situation is stable.  In fact, had Kathleen Wynne relinquished power a few months ago to someone like Naqvi, we would now probably be discussing if the Liberals will hold on to a majority, and the NDP would be fighting to get its 15-20 seats.

Anyone kidding themselves that there is a tectonic political change into a right wing and left wing option (a la UK) will be sorely disappointed.  Of course, NDP could preempt Liberals' recovery by ditching some of their more radical policies, removing fringe candidates, and trying to occupy that middle ground, but I doubt it.  There is no appetite for that in rank and file NDPers, and even Horwath showed that she is reluctant to cross the unions (something that probably will cost her 5-10 seats).  More importantly, I doubt they even have the bandwidth to do all that, while simultaneously trying to absorb the fruits of all their new-found growth.  And, if they somehow did that, it would just be a Liberal party under another name.

I also don't think that, from that point of view, the Liberals really care who takes power.  They can present themselves as a sane and safe alternative, with both a PC and an NDP government.  But, unless there is a minority situation, they should prepare themselves for 4-5 years of political wilderness.

[PeteB]

I'm calling for 65 seats and I feel I'm probably being a bit too generous to the NDP and the Liberals.  

I really really hope there's some leakage in the PC boat somewhere that deprives them of a majority.  Like those gung ho about the NDP in SW Ontario are right and they actually take some PC seats there (I don't think I have a single PC loss predicted).  Or the Soo goes NDP.  Or a surprise in somewhere like Burlington. Or they end up losing all these three ways in outer Toronto.  Some surprise in Mississauga.  Or like 10,000 voters in Vaughan that otherwise would have bolted to Ford decide that the idea of Del Duca as OLP leader is too good to pass up.  Or even Ford losing Etobicoke North (not bloody likely).  Come on Ontario...prove me wrong!

My full prediction, with riding projections, is on the other thread but in a nutshell, I am going out on a limb and saying it's (barely) a PC minority (with 62 seats).  But this assumes NDP does slightly better than expected in SW and Niagara, sweeps Brampton and captures a couple of Scarborough seats.  It also assumes that the Liberals actually rebound and win some seats besides TO and Ottawa (specifically Vaughan Woodbridge - still not giving up on Del Duca and 2 in Mississauga).  Being so close, it could easily swing into a PC majority though.