Emerson College national poll:Republicans leading Clinton and Sanders by 2-7 pts

[HillOfANight]

http://www.amren.com/features/2012/11/race-and-the-2012-election/
81% white vs 74% in 2008 and 72% in 2008.
9% black vs 13% in 2008/2012, and 11% in 2004.
Completely landline polling.

Terrible.

http://www.theecps.com/#!polls/c243u
In their July poll, they at least had 74% white, 10% black.

[HillOfANight]

Likely voters should still be composed of a likely electorate.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_6dffa5c2ac444487a847ea56c2698285.xlsx?dn=ECPS-September-15-RESULTS%20(public).xlsx
Even though their topline is weird and weighted mostly by 2012 vote instead of race, they have very thorough crosstabs in the spreadsheet. She doesn't do completely terrible with the white vote, and if this email noise gets resolved soon, I think she can do better.

In Jeb vs Hillary, Jeb gets 52% of the white vote and she gets 37%.
For Hispanics, he gets 29% and she gets 54%.

In Rubio vs Hillary, he gets 49% of the white vote, she gets 40%.
He gets 27% Hispanic, she gets 66% (very small subsample though).

In Trump vs Clinton, he gets 51% of the white vote, she gets 39%.
He gets 22% Hispanic, and she gets 67%.

[HillOfANight]

Most of the national polls show Clinton leading her Republican opponents.

The white Romney-Obama vote is a lot more flexible than the black equivalent. Absolutely if they weighted to demographics, and not the 2012 vote, they would fall more in line with other polls. If 2008 polls were weighted to 2004 results, McCain would have won.