2017 British Columbia election

[Barnes]

And the CBC to fill it all out.

http://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/bcvotes2017/

[Barnes]

A little late to the party, I know, but seeing as the Greens leader basically called Horgan a raging lunatic a few days ago, I wouldn't put much faith in them assisting an NDP minority situation.

Also, for some of our posters who might be unaware, coalitions are basically anathema to Canada (as in they don't exist except for that sh**tshow in December 2008) and the only thing that would come out of a hung parliament would be a loose confidence and supply deal which almost certainly would collapse before the end of the term.

[Barnes]

No idea why they already called Richmond-Queensborough, Libs ahead by 170 votes and there's still 11 polls left.

Mayne the NDP-heavy areas already voted and the rest of the riding is heavy Liberal?

The CBC hasn't called that one.

[Barnes]

To add to what DL said it would be a ridiculously unstable government if every backbencher with a grievance can hold the government hostage.

You need to look no further than the Turnbull Government in Australia sitting on a one seat majority. 

Just in my opinion, a government is in a slightly better position sitting in a minority versus a tiny majority as they can (rightly or wrongly) claim they simply cannot implement their agenda on certain issues. When government backbenchers really do have the power to control the numbers on their own, they are much less forgiving of such excuses.

[Barnes]

Should be an exciting time! Of course, this really depends on Linda Reid actually deciding to remain as Speaker.

Now, does Clark go through the humiliation of having her Throne Speech voted down?

[Barnes]

A similar situation happened in Queensland in 1996, when the ALP lost its one seat majority after a by-election, resulting in a hung parliament.

If the Liberals gained a majority at a by-election, Horgan could attempt to request the Lt. Governor call a snap election, but the Lt. Governor would be well within his right to refuse and allow the Liberals to attempt to govern.

[Barnes]

The speaker can still break ties, if it comes to 43-43.

And in that situation, it really depends what precedent the Speaker chooses to follow. Traditionally, Westminster Speakers will follow Speaker Denison's Rules to guide them when casting a tie-breaking vote, but this hasn't always been the case in other Commonwealth nations, and some Australian states follow a different model. Regardless, it's all down to Convention, anyway, so we'll see.

[Barnes]

The speaker can still break ties, if it comes to 43-43.

And it that situation, it really depends what precedent the Speaker choose to follow. Traditionally, Westminster Speakers will follow Speaker Denison's Rules to guide them when casting a tie-breaking vote, but this hasn't always been the case in other Commonwealth nations, and some Australian states follow a different model. Regardless, it's all down to Convention, anyway, so we'll see.

The precedent used in Canada is Speaker Denison's Rule.

Federally, you're absolutely right. Peter Milliken keeping the Martin Government alive by breaking the tie on the second reading of the 2005 budget being a prime example. I wasn't sure about each of the provinces.

[Barnes]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is the first time the Greens have been part of a government in Canadian history.

It is the first time the support of the Greens is necessary to govern, but they won't be part of the Government itself, of course.

Clark will be making a statement from the Premier's Office at 1:30 PST.

[Barnes]

Clark will not be resigning as Premier and will convene the Legislative Assembly in June to force a standoff on the floor.

[Barnes]

Horgan and Weaver delivered a letter to the Lieutenant Governor today formally informing her of their agreement.

[Barnes]

Clark will not be resigning as Premier and will convene the Legislative Assembly in June to force a standoff on the floor.

She does give a vibe that she's conceding she will lose the vote. But when asked if she thinks the LG will call another vote, she responded with a clear no.

Oh certainly. The LG would be almost certainly refuse a request for a new election if Clark asked for one.

[Barnes]

Clark will not be resigning as Premier and will convene the Legislative Assembly in June to force a standoff on the floor.

She does give a vibe that she's conceding she will lose the vote. But when asked if she thinks the LG will call another vote, she responded with a clear no.

Oh certainly. The LG would be almost certainly refuse a request for a new election if Clark asked for one.

She made clear she wouldn't ask one and is ready to become the Opposition Leader, should the likely event of losing that vote happens.

Honestly, I don't blame her for waiting for a vote to happen. As has been previously discussed, Clark isn't terribly popular among her caucus, so I wonder how long her position would be tenable?

[Barnes]

It's important to remember that the Legislative Assembly could not constitutionally do anything until they elected a speaker, so if Clark is still trying the "Strong and Stable!" shtick, paralyzing Parliament from Day One would have reflected rather poorly on her.

Also, there is a direct precedence for what might happen in Queensland in 1996 when the ALP was reelected with a one seat majority and collapsed the next year after loosing a by-election leading to a Coalition minority government. A few weeks after the new Coalition government took over, the ALP speaker resigned and the new government tested its numbers by electing a Liberal speaker.

We shall see how this plays out...