Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Hart AgStrong stuff is a nothing-burger that won't stick with voters because its too hard to follow.  Cagle's scandal is much more potent. 

Also, it's something that happened at a distance.  The Cagle scandal is right here.

[Adam Griffin]

Honestly, it reminds me a lot of Deal's (business) scandals in both of his elections. This probably all originated from the Cagle team, who's trying to muddy the waters as much as possible; it smacks exactly of oppo research dug up by a campaign and I don't think it's coincidence it dropped like 4 days after the recording. They're probably trying to stop any bleeding on their end more so than proactively cost Kemp votes. Otherwise, they would have waited until early voting to feed it to the media.

[QAnonKelly]

Have there been any new polls since the Cagle audio came out? I think he’s done for. Every day that goes by, I feel like Abrams’s chances grow. Kemp is a nutcase all around but he’s really a nutcase about immigration. I hate to say this but the family separation probably helps her. I can’t imagine woke white RINO  moms in Cobb/Gwinnett/ Fayette like this too much.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1009411868757241856

[Pandaguineapig]

Have there been any new polls since the Cagle audio came out? I think he’s done for. Every day that goes by, I feel like Abrams’s chances grow. Kemp is a nutcase all around but he’s really a nutcase about immigration. I hate to say this but the family separation probably helps her. I can’t imagine woke white RINO  moms in Cobb/Gwinnett/ Fayette like this too much.

Yeah but in our adhd news cycle the odds of that remaining an issue on election day are slim

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hillary, Bernie, Biden, Booker, Harris... yeah national Democrats are going to be all in for this race.

I hope to see Biden, Booker, Harris, and Bernie barnstorming the state this fall. I am excited!

Georgia has a lot of transplants, people may scoff at these national endorsements, but yeah... nobody cares about Barnes, Cleland, Darden, and others. Their base of voters are either dead or Republicans at this point. Abrams is the beginning of a new dynasty of Georgia Democrats.

Have there been any new polls since the Cagle audio came out? I think he’s done for. Every day that goes by, I feel like Abrams’s chances grow. Kemp is a nutcase all around but he’s really a nutcase about immigration. I hate to say this but the family separation probably helps her. I can’t imagine woke white RINO  moms in Cobb/Gwinnett/ Fayette like this too much.

There hasn't been any new polls. Regardless of the nominee Gwinnett is Lean D (closer to Likely) and Cobb is a Toss-Up at this point. With a few suburban cross-overs and galvanizing black turnout, Fayette can be closer but she will still lose there by double digits.

[ON Progressive]

Hillary, Bernie, Biden, Booker, Harris... yeah national Democrats are going to be all in for this race.

I hope to see Biden, Booker, Harris, and Bernie barnstorming the state this fall. I am excited!

Georgia has a lot of transplants, people may scoff at these national endorsements, but yeah... nobody cares about Barnes, Cleland, Darden, and others. Their base of voters are either dead or Republicans at this point. Abrams is the beginning of a new dynasty of Georgia Democrats.

Not sure how Bernie would help tbh (and I'm a huge Bernie fan, so this isn't anything against him personally). He got creamed in the Dem primary in 2016 in GA, even in rural white areas.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hillary, Bernie, Biden, Booker, Harris... yeah national Democrats are going to be all in for this race.

I hope to see Biden, Booker, Harris, and Bernie barnstorming the state this fall. I am excited!

Georgia has a lot of transplants, people may scoff at these national endorsements, but yeah... nobody cares about Barnes, Cleland, Darden, and others. Their base of voters are either dead or Republicans at this point. Abrams is the beginning of a new dynasty of Georgia Democrats.

Not sure how Bernie would help tbh (and I'm a huge Bernie fan, so this isn't anything against him personally). He got creamed in the Dem primary in 2016 in GA, even in rural white areas.

Well Abrams doesn't intend to leave any votes on the table, so I expect to see him in Atlanta proper and Athens (where he only lost by 1 point). I would really like to see Abrams crack 67-70% in Athens-Clarke County. Bernie could definitely move some butts to the polls there.

[QAnonKelly]

Hillary, Bernie, Biden, Booker, Harris... yeah national Democrats are going to be all in for this race.

I hope to see Biden, Booker, Harris, and Bernie barnstorming the state this fall. I am excited!

Georgia has a lot of transplants, people may scoff at these national endorsements, but yeah... nobody cares about Barnes, Cleland, Darden, and others. Their base of voters are either dead or Republicans at this point. Abrams is the beginning of a new dynasty of Georgia Democrats.

Have there been any new polls since the Cagle audio came out? I think he’s done for. Every day that goes by, I feel like Abrams’s chances grow. Kemp is a nutcase all around but he’s really a nutcase about immigration. I hate to say this but the family separation probably helps her. I can’t imagine woke white RINO  moms in Cobb/Gwinnett/ Fayette like this too much.

There hasn't been any new polls. Regardless of the nominee Gwinnett is Lean D (closer to Likely) and Cobb is a Toss-Up at this point. With a few suburban cross-overs and galvanizing black turnout, Fayette can be closer but she will still lose there by double digits.

Yeah no D should lose Gwinnett now and I could totally see Cobb being closer even if it's not quite ready to flip just yet. I didn't realize Fayette was 70  % white but she can probably pick off Peachtree City Yoga Moms even if she has no way to win it.

[Podgy the Bear]

Hillary, Bernie, Biden, Booker, Harris... yeah national Democrats are going to be all in for this race.

I hope to see Biden, Booker, Harris, and Bernie barnstorming the state this fall. I am excited!

Georgia has a lot of transplants, people may scoff at these national endorsements, but yeah... nobody cares about Barnes, Cleland, Darden, and others. Their base of voters are either dead or Republicans at this point. Abrams is the beginning of a new dynasty of Georgia Democrats.

Not sure how Bernie would help tbh (and I'm a huge Bernie fan, so this isn't anything against him personally). He got creamed in the Dem primary in 2016 in GA, even in rural white areas.

Well Abrams doesn't intend to leave any votes on the table, so I expect to see him in Atlanta proper and Athens (where he only lost by 1 point). I would really like to see Abrams crack 67-70% in Athens-Clarke County. Bernie could definitely move some butts to the polls there.

That's what I want to see--that Abrams doesn't intend to leave any votes on the table.  This means going to north Georgia and to the suburban areas surrounding Columbus, Savannah, and Augusta and denting the margins.  I don't really care who comes in (and I agree with you on Bernie in midtown Atlanta/Decatur/Athens), but it needs to be a solid, unified effort.  If this is the case, I think we have a chance.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

In case some of you Gawgans are interested (and would otherwise not see), I have 2020 population estimates (including estimates for 2020 race data) for Georgia that can be downloaded and used in Dave's Redistricting App.

I also made 2 hypothetical court-drawn Congressional maps for Georgia using the data, which may (or may not) be similar to the sort of Congressional map Georgia will end up with in 2020 redistricting if Stacey Abrams wins the GA-GOV race. I also made a Democratic gerrymander map.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=294399.msg6268087#msg6268087

[Rookie Yinzer]

Pod Save America had a live show in Atlanta this week, Abrams was there:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpWLk4wucZY&feature=youtu.be

[QAnonKelly]

Abrams was on Seth Meyers last night. Glad to see her getting out there

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozNvM45yKWw

[GeorgiaModerate]

New AJC poll shows Cagle leading Kemp 44-43 (more details in the polling subforum).

[QAnonKelly]

The much awaited sequel has arrived
https://youtu.be/Y6htgrVPi7A

[Maxwell]

The much awaited sequel has arrived
https://youtu.be/Y6htgrVPi7A

jake quit tryin to have sex with mah daughter only i get to that

[Zaybay]

If Kemp wins, the suburbs will be up in arms and give Abrams the win. If Casey wins, the moderates will be up in arms and Abrams will win. This race is starting to look more like a tossup, but the 50%+1 rule could still give it to the Rep.

[QAnonKelly]

If Kemp wins, the suburbs will be up in arms and give Abrams the win. If Casey wins, the moderates will be up in arms and Abrams will win. This race is starting to look more like a tossup, but the 50%+1 rule could still give it to the Rep.

Yeah, I’d love to see some polling but this could very well be an Abrams leaning tossup at this point. Cagle and Kemp are equally terrible and damaged and there’s still almost another month before the runoff.

[Adam Griffin]

The much awaited sequel has arrived
https://youtu.be/Y6htgrVPi7A

The father-in-law not pointing his gun directly at you is a good sign in Southern culture. Looks like they're making progress!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The much awaited sequel has arrived
https://youtu.be/Y6htgrVPi7A

The father-in-law not pointing his gun directly at you is a good sign in Southern culture. Looks like they're making progress!

Gotta admit, it's a solid ad in a cheesy sort of way.  I've seen much worse.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

[Rookie Yinzer]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

Ew. It is so inauthentic. Cagle will go the way of Gillespie at this rate.

[wesmoorenerd]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

Ew. It is so inauthentic. Cagle will go the way of Gillespie at this rate.

There are definitely parallels between Cagle and Gillespie. They're boring candidates who tried to spice up their campaign by infusing Trumpian tactics, not realizing that they're just harming their own odds in the process. Difference is, Gillespie is trying those tactics in a state that is massively anti-Trump. Cagle will fare better, but he's really not helping himself.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC: Black and Democratic voters gain on Republicans in Georgia

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Oh good - the turnout by demographics figures are finally available! I'll have to look through them later.