Virginia January 2017 special elections

[Beet]

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http://www.nbc12.com/story/33818766/3-special-elections-in-va-set-for-january

[Jeppe]

Too bad there aren't any Loudoun county elections. It'd be interesting to see if the shift in Loudoun county towards the Democrats was an artificial shift or a part of a clear trend, downballot especially.

[Mr.Phips]

Too bad there aren't any Loudoun county elections. It'd be interesting to see if the shift in Loudoun county towards the Democrats was an artificial shift or a part of a clear trend, downballot especially.

The test of the Loudoun and Chesterfield/Richmond shifts will be in the 2019 state senate elections.  Clinton won Dick Black's SD-13 in outer Loudoun by 7 and Sturtevant's Richmond-Chesterfield-Powhatan SD-10 by 13 (after it was only 50/48 Obama in 2012).  Flipping both would assure Democrats control of the chamber.  Some of the Richmond swing was about Kaine, but he can't explain all 11% of the increase over Obama. The most vulnerable Dem seat is in Roanoke.  It was still a 6 point Clinton win and the incumbent is entrenched.

I'd look at 2017s House of Delegates elections as well.  Both Jim LeMunyon and Tag Greason hold districts where Trump lost by over 20 points and have only won by narrow margins in each reelection. 

[Mr.Phips]

Too bad there aren't any Loudoun county elections. It'd be interesting to see if the shift in Loudoun county towards the Democrats was an artificial shift or a part of a clear trend, downballot especially.

The test of the Loudoun and Chesterfield/Richmond shifts will be in the 2019 state senate elections.  Clinton won Dick Black's SD-13 in outer Loudoun by 7 and Sturtevant's Richmond-Chesterfield-Powhatan SD-10 by 13 (after it was only 50/48 Obama in 2012).  Flipping both would assure Democrats control of the chamber.  Some of the Richmond swing was about Kaine, but he can't explain all 11% of the increase over Obama. The most vulnerable Dem seat is in Roanoke.  It was still a 6 point Clinton win and the incumbent is entrenched.

I'd look at 2017s House of Delegates elections as well.  Both Jim LeMunyon and Tag Greason hold districts where Trump lost by over 20 points and have only won by narrow margins in each reelection. 

The GOP could certainly fall from the mid 60's to the mid 50's in a Trump midterm, but actually flipping the chamber is a whole different animal.  And if the VA GOP holds on through 2019, they will just re-gerrymander the maps.  I really don't see Dems taking the lower chamber until the 2030's.

Well if Dems hold the governorship in 2021, Dems could force a fair map.

[heatcharger]

I'd look at 2017s House of Delegates elections as well.  Both Jim LeMunyon and Tag Greason hold districts where Trump lost by over 20 points and have only won by narrow margins in each reelection. 

Greason is most likely DOA, but LeMunyon ran unopposed in 2015, so we'll see if the VA Dem Party is competent enough to field a good candidate this time.