KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[windjammer]

I mean, KS seems to be trending dem a bit but it's still going to be reliably republican in the foreseable future.

[windjammer]

Likely rep.
Kansas is "trending" democrat but instead of remaining a R+10 state it's becoming a R+7 PVI state so still reliably red.

[windjammer]

Kansas may be trending dem, but losing the state by 10 instead by 20 doesn't change the outcome

[windjammer]

I don't understand why people think Kobach is going to get Moore'd.
Kansas is a republican state. They elected some democrat governors in the past, but democrat senator? The last time it happened was in the 1930's.

[windjammer]

Kansans love their radical centrists and middle-aged neoliberal ladies. Barbara Bollier is going to do them proud in the Senate.

D+1.

Is it sarcastic or not?

[windjammer]

Btw, reminder to everyone here that even with Sharice Davids winning by 10 points in 2018 and the 2nd district basically being tied House Rs still won the statewide vote by double digits. Safe R.

Right, this is a very good indicator. Watkins was/is a weak candidate as well so that drug down the numbers a bit.

It also says something about the state demographic vote makeup. If even a stellar performance in KS-01 and almost winning a Trump +20 district isn't enough to even come close to a win statewide, anyone who thinks this race is competitive is fooling themselves.

This!!!

Kansas is indeed trending dem but losing Kansas by 10 instead by 20 still means losing it!!!

[windjammer]

I don't think Kobach can win by less than 5 points.

[windjammer]

I don't think Kobach can win by less than 5 points.

Do you mean that he can't win by more than 5 points? Because what you've said technically means that he'd win by at least 5 points.

Exactly, I think he would win at least by 5 points, if he becomes the nominee of course.

[windjammer]

For those of you who think this is Safe R even with Kobach and that KS couldn’t possibly be more competitive than, say, IA or CO:

“National Republicans have outright said that the controversial Kobach can’t win a general election after losing the 2018 governor’s race by 5 points to Democrat Laura Kelly,” writes the Cook Report’s Jessica Taylor. “In private polling, Republicans have Kobach losing to likely Democratic nominee Barbara Bollier, and Kobach leading every other Republican in a head-to-head except Pompeo. Add in the fact that Democrats have a strong recruit in Bollier ⁠— a former Republican state senator who cited Trump as one of the reasons she switched parties in Dec. 2018.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/10/this-is-how-democrats-flip-senate/

In 2014, Roberts was losing by 10 points in the polls correct ?