Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[buritobr]

Jair Bolsonaro had a meeting with AfD representative Beatrix von Storch. Her grandfather was minister of finance in the Third Reich.
Before this meeting, Storch met Jair's son Eduardo Bolsonaro and PSL representative Bia Kicis.

[buritobr]

One hot debate topic in Brazil in the last weekend was the protest on the statue of Borba Gato in São Paulo. The protesters set fire on the statue.
Borba Gato was an explorer who lived in the 17th century. He traveled to the Brazilian countryside in order to look for gold. In his trips, he killed lots of natives and enslaved many of them.
The demonstrators considered that public statues of people like him glorify colonization, racism, slavery and genocide. The opponents of the protest consider that Borba Gato was very important to develop Brazilian territory considering that during his time most of the non-native population was concentrated in the coast and that one can not judge a person who lived in the 17th century according to the values of the 20th century.
There were also the ones who considered that the demonstrators should have proposed the legislative branch of São Paulo to discuss a proposal to remove the statue, instead of trying to burn the statue.
Despite the attempt of the protesters, very little damage was caused on the statue.

[Red Velvet]

So now besides the righties being influenced by US brand of right wing authoritarianism and stupidity, we also have some of the lefties desperate to emulate US woke progressives losing their minds because of statues lmao

It’s too much love, I guess? Thank heavens both Lula and Ciro are against that kind of excessive Identitary rage that simply DOESN’T translate well with most sectors of society and just creates more polarization. The strategy of both campaigns want to be focused on the economy, as it should be in order to win.

And if you want to talk about social issues, talk about the more than a half million dead on Covid due to the disastrous administration. THAT is something that will get you tons of support in necessary times. Not burning historical statues that shaped the identity and image of a state like you were this big revolutionary. It’s not right-wingers who get motivated by that thing, it’s average people who don’t really pay that much attention to politics but don’t like symbols they grew up with burned because now people suddenly realized that history of the country was bloody and racist.

Some people appear to want to think Brazil is some Latin American version of US and import some of their rules when they don’t apply or translate as well in Brazilian concept. Our own existence IS racist because the majority of us wouldn’t even be here if it wasn’t those European explorers murdering, stealing and raping people, so our own presence in this place is a reminder of racist history, especially considering how most of us have all some degree of mix between European, African and Indigenous. It’s bad to think about but it’s the history we have and the only one we have to show.

There isn’t any “good counterpart” to substitute those images, like US has with civil war ones because it was an internal conflict of them, so you might as well completely abolish historical statues shown in public places. Unless you want to substitute all statues by Indigenous leadership images that don’t get me wrong, it would be cool to have more of, but just aren’t the face of majority of Brazilian population anymore. So it would make no sense to only have Indigenous symbolism and hypocritical too, simply because a majority of us are more of descendants of the oppressive colonizers who committed the biggest genocide in all of global history, unfortunately. It is what it is, that’s just the reality.

If we want to completely erase racism, we need to leave the country and go somewhere else. But we wouldn’t fit anywhere because it’s precisely that confused and unique cultural background that makes us very different from Europeans or Africans. Racism is literally written on the Brazilian DNA. The paternal lineage of average Brazilian is heavily European while the Maternal lineage is heavily African or Indigenous. You just gotta add 2 + 2 to understand what that means.

[Lord Halifax]

Racism is literally written on the Brazilian DNA. The paternal lineage of average Brazilian is heavily European while the Maternal lineage is heavily African or Indigenous. You just gotta add 2 + 2 to understand what that means.

So do most white Brazilians have some African or Indigenous ancestry?

If you're looking at the official numbers the 2010 estimate was that 47.7% were White, 43.1% Mulatto and 7.6% Black. So a roughly even distribution between Whites and Blacks by the US defintion (and ignoring Indigenous ancestry for mixed race people). I assumed that meant an "average Brazilian" was a meaningless term (a bit like measuring the average racial background of a person in the Mississippi Delta).

[buritobr]

According to the 2010 Census, 47.7% of the brazilians self declared whites. Some of these whites look like European, like Gisele Bundchen. Many people from the south have italian or german ancestry. Some other whites have distant african or indigenous ancestry but doesn't look like if we just see their face. Some other whites have distant african or indigenous ancestry and would not be considered "white" bu European or North American standards. Soccer player Neymar and former soccer player Ronaldo used to consider themselves "white".
A new census was scheduled for 2020, but due to the pandemic, the census will take place in 2022. The most recent survey concerning Brazilian population is PNAD 2019. PNAD is a survey conducted more often than the Census, and unlike Census, is done by sample and not the whole population. According to PNAD 2019, 42.7% of the brazilians are white, 46.8% mulato, 9.4% black and 1.1% asian or indigenous. The highest share of whites took place in the 1950 Census, when 60% of the population declared themselves "white". There was a big European immigration in the late 19th century and early 20th century. Since 1950, the share of whites has been declining because non-whites have more children, and because there is a increasing share of 3/4 white 1/4 black people declaring themselves mulato and not white. There is a increasing perception that racism is not acceptable, and so, non-whites don't have shame anymore to declare themselves non-white.
The estimated Brazilian population now is 210M. So, there are ~90M whites in Brazil. This is the world's third largest white population in absolute numbers, after only USA and Russia. It is bigger than the German population, which is 83M. However, as I told, many of these 90M whites in Brazil are not as white as Germans.
If you consider that mulatos are black, Brazil has the world's second largest black population in absolute numbers, after only Nigeria.

[Red Velvet]

Racism is literally written on the Brazilian DNA. The paternal lineage of average Brazilian is heavily European while the Maternal lineage is heavily African or Indigenous. You just gotta add 2 + 2 to understand what that means.

So do most white Brazilians have some African or Indigenous ancestry?

If you're looking at the official numbers the 2010 estimate was that 47.7% were White, 43.1% Mulatto and 7.6% Black. So a roughly even distribution between Whites and Blacks by the US defintion (and ignoring Indigenous ancestry for mixed race people). I assumed that meant an "average Brazilian" was a meaningless term (a bit like measuring the average racial background of a person in the Mississippi Delta).

They absolutely have, I would say the majority must have something around 5% - 15% if they did one of those ancestry tests. Many wouldn’t be white if they were in US lmao

And black Brazilians have even more European share of ancestry than that, especially if compared to Black Americans. Everyone is way more in a wide spectrum here. And even though the backstory is kinda disturbing, not one of romance, it’s the story we have to tell. That’s why I kinda eyeroll these people angry about white colonizers when they’re directly descendants of these people and their own existence stands because of them whether they like it or not lmao.

We are all invaders here. The only people who can differ are the few Indigenous communities still left. But there are very few of them in Brazil, at least in comparison with the influence they have in other Latin American countries.

[buritobr]

Atlas Poll (I believe Atlas is the most reliable poll) July 2021

Rating of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/Very good: 26%
Regular: 15%
Bad/Very bad: 59%

1st round 2022
Lula 39.1%
Jair Bolsonaro 35.9%
Ciro Gomes 6.2%

Runoff
Lula 49.2%
Jair Bolsonaro 38.1%

Full data here
https://cdn.atlasintel.org/700ce09d-f532-403e-b86c-0d2ec9bd9177.pdf

[SnowLabrador]

Atlas Poll (I believe Atlas is the most reliable poll) July 2021

Rating of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/Very good: 26%
Regular: 15%
Bad/Very bad: 59%

1st round 2022
Lula 39.1%
Jair Bolsonaro 35.9%
Ciro Gomes 6.2%

Runoff
Lula 49.2%
Jair Bolsonaro 38.1%

Full data here
https://cdn.atlasintel.org/700ce09d-f532-403e-b86c-0d2ec9bd9177.pdf

It's getting closer. If this trend continues, Bolsonaro wins, and the world loses.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One hot debate topic in Brazil in the last weekend was the protest on the statue of Borba Gato in São Paulo. The protesters set fire on the statue.
Borba Gato was an explorer who lived in the 17th century. He traveled to the Brazilian countryside in order to look for gold. In his trips, he killed lots of natives and enslaved many of them.
The demonstrators considered that public statues of people like him glorify colonization, racism, slavery and genocide. The opponents of the protest consider that Borba Gato was very important to develop Brazilian territory considering that during his time most of the non-native population was concentrated in the coast and that one can not judge a person who lived in the 17th century according to the values of the 20th century.
There were also the ones who considered that the demonstrators should have proposed the legislative branch of São Paulo to discuss a proposal to remove the statue, instead of trying to burn the statue.
Despite the attempt of the protesters, very little damage was caused on the statue.

As an American, I hate it when American stupidity gets exported overseas. *sigh*

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/poderdata-lula-lidera-corrida-para-2022-com-39-bolsonaro-tem-25/

PoderData poll 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election:

1st round 2022:

Lula (Worker's Party) 39%
Jair Bolsonaro (no party) 25%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party) 8%
José Luiz Datena (Social Liberal Party) 7%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 6%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats) 4%

Runoff:

Lula 52%
Bolsonaro 32%

Doria 42%
Bolsonaro 32%

Datena 34%
Bolsonaro 34%

Lula 49%
Doria 20%

Lula 51%
Datena 25%

[Red Velvet]

Lmaaaaoo so apparently in the meeting with the White House representatives in Brasília, Bolsonaro sustained the narrative that what happened in US was an electoral fraud and that what he’s trying to do in Brazil is prevent what happened to Trump in US (“stolen election”) happening to him here.

I just cannot with the audacity and craziness to tell these Americans in their faces that the government they serve to is illegitimate, without any evidence. How does any of that helps his case here, other than probably putting these people against him? Most US Democrats never liked Latin American leftists and yet Bolsonaro insists to put them in the same basket of “Everyone but me is a communist”.

I really believe he’s emotionally unstable and really believes the lies coming out of his mouth. Even if dangerous and dumb, I admit there’s a side of hilarious comedy in seeing a Latin American president warn Americans that their elections were frauded. Sure, he claims his own election in 2018 was also a fraud, just to make the concept of democracy itself illegitimate.

[buritobr]

The House didn't approve the Amendment to introduce mandatory printed vote. 308 votes are necessary to approve an Amendment (3/¢ of the House). The proposal had only 229. Brazilian elections will keep all electronic.
Bolsonaro supported the introduction of the printed vote. But it doesn't matter for him. He wants no more than reduce the credibility of the election if he looses. He supported Trump's voter fraud claims. The Trump's voter fraud claims were related to paper ballots sent by mail.

[Red Velvet]

All this discourse about voting system is such an intentional distraction for the Bolsonaro crimes everyone was talking about two/three weeks ago. Bolsonaro successfully made people go back to calling him “Fascist, Authoritarian, etc” instead of “Thief, Corrupt, etc”. Which is a win for him.

Like, the focus of the discussion shifted into stupid nonsense like bringing back paper voting instead. Cool that it was defeated in congress but the mere fact we are even needed to have this discussion about stuff that should be obvious is scary. There are so much more important stuff going on.

Meanwhile, congress is proposing completely absurd stuff like “Distritão” but just to have more bargaining power into to bring back “Coligações” system back. It’s the same logic, cool that an absurdly awful system that doesn’t exist in any respectable country on Earth was defeated but they used this as leverage to pass outdated stuff from the not so distant past that is still bad even if isn’t as awful as the “Distritão”, selling a completely false image of political “middle ground” compromise.

It’s like if someone comes up to you and say you can choose between run over by a car on high speed or have someone punch you in the face. And the punch in the face becomes interpreted as not something too bad ONLY because otherwise something worse would’ve happened in the scenario they made you believe you needed to choose. We are constantly being punched and we are celebrating it because we’re not being run over by cars yet.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Has impeachment lost its luster, then (especially since Bolsonaro got 229 votes for his signature proposal)?

[Red Velvet]

Has impeachment lost its luster, then (especially since Bolsonaro got 229 votes for his signature proposal)?

Not even PT wants impeachment because they consider it easier for them to win by running against Bozo in 2022 so yeah

[CumbrianLefty]

Has impeachment lost its luster, then (especially since Bolsonaro got 229 votes for his signature proposal)?

Not even PT wants impeachment because they consider it easier for them to win by running against Bozo in 2022 so yeah

Well, have to hope this works better than "Trump is HRC's dream opponent" did in 2016!

[Red Velvet]

Has impeachment lost its luster, then (especially since Bolsonaro got 229 votes for his signature proposal)?

Not even PT wants impeachment because they consider it easier for them to win by running against Bozo in 2022 so yeah

Well, have to hope this works better than "Trump is HRC's dream opponent" did in 2016!

The orientation of the party is to not attack him too little that it makes him too comfortable in office and neither attack him too hard that it actually succeeds in impeaching him lol

I think there’s a valid argument of not giving fuel for their adversaries claim persecution, but these people will find an excuse to not admit their loss even if they lose the elections (“It was rigged!” empty claims).

[Cassius]

Looking at the poll posted above, who does Bolsonaro appeal to that the centre-right candidates (Doria and Dateno) don’t, seeing as he gets better scores against Lula?

[Red Velvet]

Looking at the poll posted above, who does Bolsonaro appeal to that the centre-right candidates (Doria and Dateno) don’t, seeing as he gets better scores against Lula?

People who would vote for Bolsonaro or Lula but wouldn’t vote for other options.

Vote in Brazil isn’t as ideological as you may think.

[buritobr]

Has impeachment lost its luster, then (especially since Bolsonaro got 229 votes for his signature proposal)?

Sure. 2/3 of the House is necessary for the impeachment: it means 342. Or: 171 votes are necessary to avoid the impeachment. We could see that Bolsonaro has safe 229 votes.
If there are no extraordinary facts, there is no impeachment.

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro is not the easiest opponent of PT. The incumbent has always advantage.

Besides, Bolsonaro does well in the group of evangelicals who live in poor neighborhoods in metro areas. Many of them voted for Lula, Dilma and Bolsonaro (they are like the american white working class who voted for Obama and Trump).
If a PT candidate runs against a PSDB or DEM candidate, this group can go back to PT.

[buritobr]

State level polls for 2022

Espírito Santo (Orizzonte, August 13)
Jair Bolsonaro 34.9%, Lula 34.3%, Ciro Gomes 4.6%
in 2018
2nd round: Jair Bolsonaro 63.1%, Fernando Haddad 36.9%
1st round: Jair Bolsonaro 54.8%, Fernando Haddad 24.2%, Ciro Gomes 9.5%

Acre (Big Data, August 7)
Jair Bolsonaro 43%, Lula 27%, Ciro Gomes 7%
2nd round: Bolsonaro 45%, Lula 31%
in 2018
2nd round: Jair Bolsonaro 77.2%, Fernando Haddad 22.8%
1st round: Jair Bolsonaro 62.2%, Fernando Haddad 18.5%, Ciro Gomes 5.2%

Rio Grande do Sul (Ranking, August
Jair Bolsonaro 28.00%, Lula 26.05%, Eduardo Leite 17.10%
2nd round: Lula 42.3%, Bolsonaro 38.5%
in 2018
2nd round: Jair Bolsonaro 63.2%, Fernando Haddad 36.8%
1st round: Jair Bolsonaro 52.6%, Fernando Haddad 22.8%, Ciro Gomes 11.4%

Bahia (Paraná Pesquisas, August 7)
Lula 47.1%, Jair Bolsonaro 23.7%, Ciro Gomes 8.7%
in 2018
2nd round: Fernando Haddad 72.7%, Jair Bolsonaro 27.3%
1st round: Fernando Haddad 60.3%, Jair Bolsonaro 23.4%, Ciro Gomes 9.4%

Rio Grande do Norte (Perfil, August 6)
Lula 49.84%, Jair Bolsonaro 20.50%, Ciro Gomes 5.25%
in 2018
2nd round: Fernando Haddad 63.4%, Jair Bolsonaro 36.6%
1st round: Fernando Haddad 41.2%, Jair Bolsonaro 30.2%, Ciro Gomes 22.3%

Piauí (Estimativa, August 10)
Lula 63.65%, Jair Bolsonaro 16.45%, Ciro Gomes 7.00%
in 2018
2nd round: Fernando Haddad 77.0%, Jair Bolsonaro 23;0%
1st round: Fernando Haddad 63.4%, Jair Bolsonaro 18.8%, Ciro Gomes 11.4%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

2022 presidential election XP Ipespe poll:

1st round - 1st scenario:

Lula (Worker's Party) 40%
Jair Bolsonaro (no party) 24%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party) 10%
Sérgio Moro (no party) 9%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats) 4%
Eduardo Leite (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 4%

1st round - 2nd scenario: 

Lula (Worker's Party) 37%
Jair Bolsonaro (no party) 28%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party) 11%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 5%
José Luiz Datena (Social Liberal Party) 5%
Rodrigo Pacheco (Democrats) 1%

Runoff:

Lula 51% vs. Bolsonaro 32%
Ciro Gomes 44% vs. Bolsonaro 32%
 Sérgio Moro 36% vs. Bolsonaro 30%
Mandetta 38% vs. Bolsonaro 34%
João Doria 37% vs. Bolsonaro 35%
Eduardo Leite 35% vs. Bolsonaro 33%

Bolsonaro's approval:

Excellent/good 20%
Regular 23%
Bad/terrible 54%

[Red Velvet]

New Instituto Opinião poll about opinions on recent events in Brazil:

Do you think President Bolsonaro wants to implement a dictatorship?
Yes - 57,6%
No - 31,1%

About the military parade of August 10th, did you feel more…
More Proud than Ashamed - 41,1%
More Ashamed than Proud - 46,3%

What did you think it was the main goal of the showing that happened in August 10th?
Intimidate the National congress on the day of their printed voting vote - 43,0%
To give the president the Navy’s invitation to participate in Operation Formosa - 15,4%
Demonstrate the strength and the submission of the military forces to president Bolsonaro - 13,9%


New XP/IPESPE poll for 2022 election:

Scenario 1:
Lula (PT) - 40%
Bolsonaro (no party) - 24%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 10%
Sérgio Moro (no party) - 9%
Henrique Mandetta (DEM) - 4%
Eduardo Leite (PSDB) - 4%

Scenario 2:
Lula (PT) - 37%
Bolsonaro (no party) - 28%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 11%
Henrique Mandetta (DEM) - 5%
Datena (PSL) - 5%
João Doria (PSDB) - 5%
Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD) - 1%

Runoff Scenarios:
Lula (PT) 51% vs 32% Bolsonaro (no party)
Lula (PT) 49% vs 34 % Sérgio Moro (no party)
Lula (PT) 49% vs 31% Ciro Gomes (PDT)
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 44% vs 32% Bolsonaro (no party)
João Doria (PSDB) 37% vs 35% Bolsonaro (no party)
Eduardo Leite (PSDB) 35% vs 33% Bolsonaro (no party)

Lula vs Bolsonaro rejection: Which of the two would Brazilians NEVER vote, under any scenario?
% who says they would never vote for Bolsonaro - 61%
% who says they would never vote for Lula - 45%


XP/IPESPE also polled opinions about the government and other stuff:

How do you rate the Bolsonaro government?
Bad/Awful - 54%
Great/Good - 23%
Regular - 20%
Don’t Know - 2%

What’s your opinion about the Impeachment of president Bolsonaro?
Support Impeaching him - 50%
Don’t support Impeaching him - 46%
Don’t Know - 4%

Do you support establishing the printed vote system in Brazil?
Oppose Printed Vote - 58%
Supports Printed Vote - 36%
Don’t Know - 7%

[buritobr]

Former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso endorsed São Paulo governor João Doria in the PSDB primary, which will take place early 2022. The biggest competitor is Rio Grande do Sul governor Eduardo Leite.