German Elections & Politics

[Yeahsayyeah]

Well, I think the CSU leaders have been knowing from the start that this cap makes no sense and is probably unconstitutional...

[Yeahsayyeah]

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For what it's worth, in a uniform swing scenario with

CDU/CSU: 28
AfD: 18
SPD: 17
Grüne: 16
Linke: 10
FDP: 9

you get soemthing like

CDU: 145 (-40)
SPD: 65 (+6)
CSU: 46 (+/- 0)
AfD: 31 (+28)
Grüne: 6 (+5)
Linke: 6 (+1)

In the East (+ the 2 mixed Berlin constituencies):

AfD: 31 (+28)
CDU: 15 (-29)
Linke: 6 (+1)
Grüne 2 (+1)
SPD: 1 (-1)

CDU losing 5 and AfD gaining 5,5 per cent would win them many CDU/AfD marginals. AfD would sweep Saxony but Leipzig II (Linke). Linke would gain Rostock. SPD would hold Potsdam. Greens would win the mixed Berlin constituencies (but likely also their eastern parts).

In the west things are quite boring. SPD could regain some marginals from CDU. CSU's constituency wins are highly unresponsive to their losses because of fractured opposition.  Greens would gain Tempelhof-Schöneberg and 3 Baden-Württemberg constituencies from CDU (Stuttgart I, Karlsruhe-Stadt, Freiburg).

[Yeahsayyeah]

So why are the CSU crashing in Bavaria after they had a hard turn right? you would suppose that would stop the spill to the right, but I guess there's a different underlying reason to it.

Because it is a false assumption that a hard turn right and strengthening AfD voters in their assumption that "migration is the mother of all problems" will automatically let them come back to you.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Terrible numbers. I hate the fact that we become a multi-party system similar to the Netherlands or Israel. This is leads to more instability. We need to adopt a majority votings system similar to the US or UK.

I'm not sure, that FPTP would lead to the outcome, you desire, at the moment. It's only a good idea if you want the Polonisation of East German politics. The only party, that would disappear, ist the FDP. All six parties have their issue/cleavage-driven reasons to exist. And five have regional strongholds and cultural reasons to not disband, especially on the left. By the way, FPTP in Germany is only a good idea if you want the Polonization of East German Politics...And given the intra-camp dynamics it's actually the classical SPD that could be thrown under the bus in the long run. I don't think, that you find that desirable.


On the other hand, Germany has a tradition of multiparty politics and can cope with a six-party system.
Multiparty politics and coalition agreements are actually a far more flexible and stable way of governing, where more positions can be heard, then the 180-degree-turnaround-prone and polarizing winner-take-all system, that German political culture is not used to.
If you want to stop the traditional "people's parties" are eroding, you would have to take measeres to strengthen civic society and to solve the problems of growing inequality, not keeping them on artificial life support by an unjust electoral system. We still have the 5 percent threshold, btw.

[Yeahsayyeah]

My prediction

CSU: 34,2
Grüne: 17,4
SPD: 12,8
FW: 10,6
AfD: 10,3
FDP: 5,4

Linke: 4,6
Others: 4,7

[Yeahsayyeah]

I finally got the exit poll and let’s just say I‘ll start drinking now.

Out of joy orout of Frustsaufen? ;-)

[Yeahsayyeah]

Or we have Easter. :-)

[Yeahsayyeah]

Maybe turnout is just down a lot in Frankfurt, but stable or up elsewhere ...

My interpretation would be, that the numbers on the city of Frankfurt website are without postal voting. It wouldn't make sense giving the parallel trends to the Bavarian state elections, if turnout in Frankfurt is down, of all places.

[Yeahsayyeah]

I would interpet Tageswahlbeteiligung as on-day voting. And the sample is only 9 precincts, which in the end could be very unrepresentative. We will see,

https://wahlen.frankfurt.de/twb/twb.html

[Yeahsayyeah]

Tarek Al-Wazir has won his Offenbach-Stadt district for the Greens.

And SPD has won the Hersfeld constituency from CDU.

[Yeahsayyeah]

And he was not very likeable then, btw.

[Yeahsayyeah]

I don't think, that "the CDU has to elect Merz and move to the right" will help the political system that much. At the end, someone has to govern together with someone. And CDU/CSU won't govern with the AfD (at least this time, and the "transatlantician", pro-EU, transnational company lobbyist isn't the one to to that, either - as is the gay overambitious "ultraconservative").

On a side note, I think, a Merz-CDU would take more from the FDP actually. At least I can't see AfD voters in the east, of whom most would want a stronger welfare state (but for whites only) and are more "Russia-understanding" will be swayed by Friedrich Merz.