After NY, Cruz will likely join the Kasich club (user search)
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  After NY, Cruz will likely join the Kasich club (search mode)
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Author Topic: After NY, Cruz will likely join the Kasich club  (Read 905 times)
Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« on: April 16, 2016, 01:38:10 PM »

And if it does go to a 2nd ballot, why should Cruz get it?

Because he's completely dominated the delegate selection process?
Trump has completely dominated the primary process; why shouldn't he get it?

Because he hasn't? He's just gotten a bunch of weak pluralities.
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Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,641
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2016, 02:32:10 PM »

And if it does go to a 2nd ballot, why should Cruz get it?

Because he's completely dominated the delegate selection process?
Trump has completely dominated the primary process; why shouldn't he get it?

Because he hasn't? He's just gotten a bunch of weak pluralities.

He's still done way better than Cruz...

I suppose that's fair, but the primary season has been polarized around trump in a way that it hasn't been around Cruz. People who vote against trump are rejecting him; that's not the case for the other candidates.

Anyway, I was dropping by this thread to note that it was mathematically impossible for what the opening post describes to take place in New York, and that it was a classic example of trump-supporter math (even if IceSpear isn't a trump supporter Tongue).
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Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,641
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2016, 02:42:15 PM »

I like Cruz.  But Cruz is going to have a rough time in the next hew weeks.  Meanwhile Trump will be winning primaries.  The GOP may find that the best way forward is to bite the bullet and nominate Trump.  Paul Ryan is refusing to be the nominee.  If Cruz had won a lot of southern states, then there would be a stronger case for him.  Look at Arizona, Cruz got trounced here in this GOP stronghold.  I really think Cruz has a weaker hand than many have been saying.
The big question is how many delegates will Trump have going into Cleveland.  Right now he has a big lead. And it is about to get a lot bigger.

In reference to the bolded section of your post, "the GOP" has zero control over the process. If they had control, they would've prevented trump from running in the first place. As it stands, they cannot prevent Cruz from recruiting his own backers to be trump delegates.

As for trump's lead, his margin doesn't matter at all; what matters is what percent of total delegates he has. He's at 44% right now. If he wins every single available bound delegate (which won't happen) in both New York and on 4/26, he's still only up to 49%, and he'll then be declining again once Indiana and the Pacific Northwest vote. trump's path to the nomination is an extremely narrow one.
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