Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Devils30]

Inelastic Georgia was a problem for Dems in 2014, 16, 18 and the same dynamics that helped Dems in 2020 could help them in 2022. The numbers that used to leave Dems slightly short might leave them with 50-51.5% now.

[Devils30]

Kemp and the legislature would be very smart to just punt this to a referendum

[Devils30]

The 2024 election in Georgia is safe now, PA and AZ are the bigger concern at the moment.

Herschel Walker also ran 15-25 points behind Kemp in the Atlanta area counties, you can see the weakness he'll have relative to Kemp in November. Warnock needs to run a moderate campaign, attack Walker's past and not do campaign events with Abrams (who is cooked).

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1530594117599776768

can’t fix stupid

If Kemp narrowly loses, there’s a good chance these voters (or non voters in 2022) could be the difference.

My guess is the ultimate map is basically 2020 with a slightly better performance by Kemp in Cobb/northern Fulton, ect while Abrams does well in Gwinnett and the more diverse suburbs to the east. Rural GA prolly has a pretty universal small R swing. (Similar to the regular GA 2020 Sen race pre runoff). At face value this should be a narrow Kemp victory but if rural GA has even a slight dent in turnout it could spell trouble.

Kemp- Warnock voters will be a real thing. GA is normally inelastic but looking at the primary, Herschel ran way behind Kemp in the Atlanta burbs. These quirks have a funny way of reasserting themselves in November. Look at 2020 where Dems had a massive turnout in GA, AZ (relative to 2016) even after Biden had basically won along with anemic turnout in South Florida.