Iowa president-senate split

[chubbygummy]

This is one of those cases in which I think there will be a solid amount of ticket splitters on both sides.

[wbrocks67]

I could easily see Trump winning by a hair but Greenfield also winning at the same time

[SnowLabrador]

Trump-Greenfield in theory, since Ernst is likely to run behind Trump based on current polling. But in reality, neither, for whoever wins the Presidential race in Iowa will also win the Senate race. It will be this way in every state, in every election, until the end of time.

[chubbygummy]

Trump-Greenfield in theory, since Ernst is likely to run behind Trump based on current polling. But in reality, neither, for whoever wins the Presidential race in Iowa will also win the Senate race. It will be this way in every state, in every election, until the end of time.

Dems could win Montana senate despite Biden having zero chance there.

[WD]

Trump-Greenfield in theory, since Ernst is likely to run behind Trump based on current polling. But in reality, neither, for whoever wins the Presidential race in Iowa will also win the Senate race. It will be this way in every state, in every election, until the end of time.

“Until the end of time”? That’s absolute nonsense.


Anyway, the result will likely be Trump-Greenfield. Trump carries the state by 1-2 points and Greenfield outruns Biden by 2-3.

[PAK Man]

Actually, I can see Ernst doing better than Trump. I'm familiar with Iowa, having went to college there and lived there for eight years. Iowa was an anti-Clinton state, not a pro-Trump state (not even Iowa Dems like Clinton) so I'd expect Obama/Trump voters to swing back to Biden since Clinton's not one ticket. Ernst still has a bit of a personal brand, though it's not particularly great. What's really going to hurt Ernst is the State Fair's cancellation, because that's now she gets out and meets people. Without her ability to interact with the public, that's going to hurt her (I've met Ernst in person, and while I don't like her, I will say that she is very personable and friendly).

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Biden and Greenfield both win by 0.5-1%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Actually, I can see Ernst doing better than Trump. I'm familiar with Iowa, having went to college there and lived there for eight years. Iowa was an anti-Clinton state, not a pro-Trump state (not even Iowa Dems like Clinton) so I'd expect Obama/Trump voters to swing back to Biden since Clinton's not one ticket. Ernst still has a bit of a personal brand, though it's not particularly great. What's really going to hurt Ernst is the State Fair's cancellation, because that's now she gets out and meets people. Without her ability to interact with the public, that's going to hurt her (I've met Ernst in person, and while I don't like her, I will say that she is very personable and friendly).

Interesting take. I've always kind of suspected this, though I think Ernst and Trump will be essentially tied. We saw in 2018 that IA took a stark turn against Trump, and Ds got more raw votes in the house than they did in 2016 on the presidential level with Clinton

[Xing]

I don’t expect a huge difference between the presidential race and this race, but if I had to guess, Ernst does about 1% worse.

[😥]

Trump/Greenfield

[Del Tachi]

Like 2016, I don't expect 2020 to feature any president-senate splits

[chubbygummy]

Like 2016, I don't expect 2020 to feature any president-senate splits

Not even Montana?

[Del Tachi]

Like 2016, I don't expect 2020 to feature any president-senate splits

Not even Montana?

I dunno, let’s ask Senators Bayh and Bredesen

ME, MI and MT are the states most likely to feature a president-Senate split, but I expect all three races to track with the presidential contest (even if only by coincidence rather than design)

The latest MT-SEN polls have Daines up, IIRC