Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[Mike Thick]

Trump is doing a decent job so far

lmao

I have been closely following this, and kind of feel bad for not heaping on all the praise it deserved. Keep going!

[Mike Thick]

Sorry if you've covered this already, but how are LGBT rights looking at this point?

[Mike Thick]

I assume Malloy's approvals in Connecticut have recovered?

[Mike Thick]

Wrote these up with TD's blessing. It's Gubernatorials where either a new Governor was elected or the race was somewhat competitive. I might have another post up for maps sometime today.

United States Gubernatorial Elections, 2020

31 Democrats
18 Republicans
1 Independent

Montana - Governor

Tim Fox (Republican): 285,421 - 53.88%
Kendall Van Dyk (Democrat): 228,157 - 43.07%
Others (Independent): 16,157 - 3.05%

Totals … 529,735 | Margin: 10.81%

New Hampshire - Governor

Chris Sununu (Republican): 397,826 - 51.77%
Jeff Woodburn (Democrat): 359,403 - 46.77%
Others (Independent): 11,220 1.46%

Totals … 768,449 | Margin: 5.00%

North Carolina - Governor

Mark Meadows (Republican): 2,179,106 - 43.35%
Roy Cooper (Democrat): 2,772,767 - 55.16%
Others (Independent): 74,899 - 1.49%

Totals … 5,026,772 | Margin: 11.81%

Utah - Governor

Jason Chaffetz (Republican): 742, 596 - 65.64%
Jeff Holtzmann (Democrat): 355,120 - 31.39%
Others (Independent): 33,600 - 2.97%

Totals … 1,131,316 | Margin: 34.25%

Vermont - Governor

Michael Schirling (Republican): 152,387 - 44.86%
Miro Weinberger (Democrat): 175,316 - 51.61%
Others (Independent): 11,991 3.53%

Totals … 339,694 | Margin: 6.75%

Washington - Governor

Michael Waite (Republican): 1,446,160 - 44.10%
Cyrus Habib (Democrat): 1,833,114 - 55.90%

Totals … 3,279,274 | Margin: 14.80%

West Virginia - Governor:

Evan Jenkins (Republican): 316,887 - 46.58%
Jim Justice (Democrat): 347,433 - 51.07%
Others (Independent): 15,987 - 2.35%

Totals … 680,307 | 4.49%

    As with the other 2020 races, there were few surprises downticket. Only two Governorships changed hands -- Democratic Mayor Miro Weinberger of Burlington defeated Republican Michael Schirling, the State Secretary of Commerce, to succeed moderate Republican Phil Scott as Governor of Vermont, but State Attorney General Tim Fox beat State Senator Kendall Van Dyk to take the Governorship of Montana from termed-out Democrat Steve Bullock. As expected, Chris Sununu won a third term in New Hampshire by a five-point margin in a rather sleepy race. Incumbent Republicans won re-election fairly easily in states like Indiana, North Dakota, and Missouri, while Congressman Jason Chaffetz won election to the Utah Governors’ Mansion by a wide margin.

    The GOP gained back the New Hampshire and Iowa Houses of Representatives, which they had lost in 2018, but fell just short in Michigan and Minnesota. They were also able to take back the State Senates of Maine and Wisconsin. Democrats had their highlights as well, expanding on gains they had made in states like New Mexico and Texas, further exemplifying the Southwest’s slow turn towards Democrats. However, like races up the ticket, there were few major changes.

    However, Democrats seem to have had what few standout moments there were in the 2020 state-level elections. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper trounced Congressman Mark Meadows to win a second term, even as President Pence and Senator Thom Tillis both carried the swing state narrowly. In West Virginia, Jim Justice overcame a double-digit polling deficit in the spring to defeat well-funded U.S. Representative Evan Jenkins by four points in the deeply Republican state. And Lieutenant Governor Cyrus Habib of Washington, an Iranian-American who has been blind since the age of eight, is set to become the youngest Governor in the country at age 39.

    The 2020 elections were fairly dry. But sometimes dry is a good thing.

[Mike Thick]

A nitpick - I doubt Habib runs for Gov in '20, it is widely assumed Dow Constantine has it wrapped up.

Otherwise great. Impressive work

Let's imagine that it's a Stunning Primary Upset^TM

[Mike Thick]

Yeah, I'm writing up the 2022 midterms. They should be finished and posted tonight.

[Mike Thick]

Ugh, a fundraising event I had to present at ran like an hour and a half later than I had planned for and I didn't have time to finish up. Things should be posted tomorrow, though

[Mike Thick]

Fall Portends Brutal Midterms

(September 2022) The GOP is preparing for a brutal midterm election in the fall as Republican incumbents are bracing for a difficult election cycle.

In the Senate, the ‘16 GOP victors are up for re-election again. That included Sens. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Ia.), Richard Burr (R-N.C.), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), and John McCain (R-Ariz.) are retiring. On the Democratic side, only Sens. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) and Michael Bennett (D-Colo) are running again for re-election from a swing state.  In the House, it is estimated that about 65 House Republicans are “vulnerable,” while only 10 House Democrats are vulnerable. 

In the gubernatorial sweepstakes, the governorships of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, Colorado, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Texas are among the big battleground states. Of these, the GOP holds New Hampshire, Arizona, and Texas, while the Democrats held the rest. Greg Abbott (R-Tex.) is retiring, while Chris Sununu is seeking a third two-year term in New Hampshire. Tom Wolf is also termed out in Pennsylvania. The rest are first term Democratic governors seeking re-election.

Polling shows that, on a generic congressional ballot, 49% of voters currently plan to vote for the Democrats, while about 40% plan to vote for Republicans. 3% plan to vote third party, while the rest are undecided.

"Things are looking good for us this cycle," said DCCC Chair and Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton. "There are a lot of blue-collar voters in the Midwest and the South who have tried out Republicans, but seen wage stagnation, economic decline, and gridlock despite a unified Republican Government. They're ready to try something new."

Primaries on both sides have showcased this desire for change. In Arizona, State Treasurer Jeff DeWit crushed Congresswoman Martha McSally, widely considered the favorite for the nomination and a rising star in the Republican party, to win the Republican nomination for John McCain's Senate seat. State Senator and anti-establishment stalwart Scott Wagner has secured the Republican nod to seek Pennsylvania's Governorship. And Van Taylor, a firebrand Congressman who was famously derided by House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy as "certifiable," defeated political scion George P. Bush to take the Texas Gubernatorial nomination after a close and bitter primary runoff. Democratic candidates like Arizona Senatorial nominee and former Rep. Ruben Gallego, Darren Soto (the Democratic opposition to Marco Rubio in Florida) and Cincinnati Mayor and Ohio Senatorial candidate Yvette Simpson.

Republicans had better brace themselves -- 2022 is going to be a bumpy ride.

[Mike Thick]

BLUE CRUSH: Democrats Make Massive Midterm Gains

Democrats swept the 2022 midterm elections in a stunning rebuke of President Mike Pence, House Speaker Paul Ryan, and the increasingly unpopular Republican Party.

As it stands, Democrats have gained seven seats in the U.S. Senate, defeating Republicans in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Florida. The Senate race in Ohio remains too close to call, with Cincinnati Mayor Yvette Simpson leading incumbent Rob Portman by seventy-eight votes at press time. Democrats also gained forty-four seats in the House of Representatives, taking back the Chamber from Republicans for the first time in twelve years by a comfortable 239-196 margin. Three races have yet to be called.

Democrats also made major gains in Gubernatorial races, taking the governorships of Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas. Hundreds of State Legislature seats were also picked up by Democrats, flipping nearly a dozen chambers..

Governor-elect Rafael Anchia of Texas won a hotly contested election over controversial Republican Congressman Van Taylor, who gained national notoriety for his vocal opposition to President Pence’s debt deal, to win back the state’s top executive office for the first time in nearly thirty years.

“I think that people are finally waking up,” said Anchia, the Minority Leader of the State Senate. “There are millions of voters out there, old, young, male and female, brown and black and white, who are finally seeing that they’ve been swindled. This state has seen Republican rule for nearly thirty years, this country for almost six. Congress has been Republican for eight. And things haven’t improved for Americans -- wages are stagnant, the economy is slow, you have massive debt crises all over the country. People are tired of being lied to and told that things will get better if they just keep voting for Republicans.”

Indeed, it seemed like people are unhappy with the status quo after years of Republican governance. In exit polls conducted immediately after the election, Pence's approvals ranged from the low thirties to the high twenties, while a commanding majority disapproved. Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell didn't fare much better, with the margins barely thinner but lower overall name recognition.

President Pence has announced a meeting with likely House Speaker Tim Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Patty Murray the day after tomorrow. However, it is clear that his position has been weakened even further, and the next two years are not looking pretty for Republicans.

[Mike Thick]

Maps?

Coming in a comprehensive results post, along with more all-encompassing State Legislative results.

Ueutyi, Kander chose not to seek a rematch with Blunt, but we will be seeing him again soon.

[Mike Thick]

United States Elections, 2022

Senate:

Democrats: +8, 54 seats
Republicans: -8, 46 seats


PA:
Joe Torsella (D): 3,270,778 53.51%
Pat Toomey (R): 2,646,084 43.29%
Others (I): 195,599 3.20%
Margin: 10.22%

OH:
Yvette Simpson (D): 2,613,128 48.382%
Rob Portman (R): 2,613,021 48.380%
Others (I): 96,926 3.24%
Margin: .002%

WI:
Chris Larson (D): 1,599,585 53.47%
Robin Vos (R): 1,380,304 44.57%
Others (I): 58,634 1.96%
Margin: 8.90%

IA:
Jeff Danielson (D): 816,724 50.96%
Rod Blum (R): 739,475 46.14%
Other (I): 46,478 2.90%
Margin: 4.82%

AZ:
Ruben Gallego (D): 1,289,359 50.98%
Jeff DeWit (R): 1,127,746 44.59%
Other (I): 112,294 4.44%
Margin: 6.39%

NC:
Josh Stein (D): 2,549,776 52.77%
Dan Forest (R): 2,219,760 45.94%
Other (I): 62,331 1.29%
Margin: 6.83%

GA:
Stacey Evans (D): 2,083,672 51.65%
Austin Scott (R): 1,926,741 47.76%
Other: 23,802 0.59%
Margin: 3.89%

FL:
Darren Soto (D): 4,853,397 49.93%
Marco Rubio (R): 4,781,466 49.19%
Other: 71,931 0.74%
Margin: 0.84%

Gubernatorials:

Democrats: +4, 33 Governorships
Republicans: -4, 16 Governorships
Independents: --, 1 Governorship

NH:
Stefany Shaheen (D): 392,192 53.18%
Chris Sununu (R): 321,178 43.44%
Others (I): 24,990 3.38%
Margin: 9.74%

AZ:
Kyrsten Sinema (D): 1,328,869 52.51%
Michele Reagan (R): 1,152,732 45.55%
Others (I): 49,095 1.94%
Margin: 6.94%

TX:
Rafael Anchia (D): 4,628,551 49.62%
Van Taylor (R): 4,220,918 45.25%
Others (I): 478,526 5.13%
Margin: 4.37%

GA:
Jason Carter (D): 2,010,000 52.08%
Casey Cagle (R): 1,865,323 46.26%
Others (I): 66,935 1.66%
Margin: 5.82%

FL:
Gwen Graham (D): 5,221,939 53.80%
Adam Putnam (R): 4,300,820 44.31%
Others (I): 183,466 1.89%
Margin: 9.49%

KS:
Paul Davis (D): 628,634 54.80%
Kris Kobach (R): 469,181 40.90%
Others (I): 49,327 4.30%
Margin: 13.90%

WI:
Kathleen Vinehout (D): 1,644,011 54.07%
Mike Gallagher (R): 1,330,533 43.76%
Others (I): 65,979 2.17%
Margin: 10.31%

PA:
Brendan Boyle (D): 3,321,995 54.35%
Scott Perry (R): 2,705,883 44.27%
Others (I): 84,349 1.38%
Margin: 10.08%

House:
Democrats: +48, 241 seats
Republicans: -48, 194 seats

State Legislatures:

60% is two chambers flipped, 30% is one chamber flipped. Let me know if I made errors on any of this, of course!

[Mike Thick]

8:45 PM EST

Bill: "With Arkansas now called for Democratic Governor Richard Cordray, we have another 6 electoral votes in the bag for him. That brings him to 195. Here's the list of undecided states and where we stand on them. West Virginia is also undecided but we'll have results for that state at 9:00."

KENTUCKY - 84% of precincts reporting

Cordray/Castro (Democratic): 847,259 - 50.50%
Pence/Haley (Republican): 806,615 - 48.08%
Others (Independent): 23,932 - 1.43%

Totals: 1,677,807 | Margin: 2.42%

SOUTH CAROLINA - 64% of precincts reporting

Cordray/Castro (Democratic): 680,448 - 49.28%
Pence/Haley (Republican): 670,847 - 48.59%
Others (Independent): 29,436 - 2.13%

Totals: 1,677,807 | Margin: 2.42%

Can you fix the Vote Totals ? It doesn't seem right.....

Considering that not all precincts are reporting, and the turnout is increased significantly from 2016 levels for a number of reasons, I think the totals are pretty reasonable.

[Mike Thick]

Gubernatorials:

Delaware:
Matthew Townsend (D): 293,528 61.01%
Ken Simpler (R): 178,060 37.01%
Others (I): 9,526 1.98%
Margin: 24.00%

Missouri:
Nicole Galloway (D): 1,594,316 52.37%
Mike Parson (R): 1,335,243 43.86%
Others (I): 114,771 3.77%
Margin: 8.51%

West Virginia:
Doug Reynolds (D): 391,000 51.63%
Patrick Morrissey (R): 347,985 45.95%
Others (I): 18,326 2.42%
Margin: 5.68%

North Dakota:
Joe Morrison (D): 180,882 46.06%
Brent Sanford (R): 206,762 52.65%
Others (I): 5,066 1.29%
Margin: 6.59%

Indiana:
Scott Pelath (D): 1,456,465 49.07%
Susan Brooks (R): 1,458,543 49.14%
Others (I): 1.79%
Margin: 0.07%

Montana:
Angela McLean (D): 251,942 47.40%
Tim Fox (R): 266,187 50.08%
Others (I): 13,394 2.52%
Margin: 2.68%

North Carolina:
Anthony Foxx (D): 2,972,051 58.07%
Daniel Soucek (R): 2,066,340 40.36%
Others (I): 80,380 1.57%
Margin: 17.71%

State Governmental Control:

90% - Governor's party trifecta
50% - Split Legislature
30% - Unified Legislature against Governor's party

Color, of course, corresponds to the party of the Governor. I imagine that the Democrats came close to flipping another chamber or two in places like Georgia, South Carolina, Kansas, Indiana, or even Kentucky, but despite their victories there they didn't have enough influence on the redistricting process in 2020 to crack the gerrymanders. Alaska is split with a Democratic State House, a Republican Senate, and a centrist Independent Governor.

As everywhere else, Democratic victories have been widespread in both 2023 (Democrats flipped Kentucky with Andy Beshear and Mississippi with Jim Hood) and 2024. Democrats control 37 of 50 Governorships -- nearly three in every four-- and have full control of the Government in 28 of those states.

Side note: when I was doing internet stuff to prepare this, I accidentally combined my two favorite Atlas timelines and Googled "Between New Majorities"

[Mike Thick]

Here are some belated primary maps.

2024 Presidential Primaries:

Democratic Party:

Governor Richard Cordray (D-OH) (Nominee)
Governor Andrew Cuomo(D-NY)
Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)
Governor Tyler Olson (D-IA)
Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Senator Mark Warner (D-VA)
Senator Jared Polis (D-CO)
Governor Kate Brown (D-OR)
Former Governor Ralph Northam (D-VA)
Former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI)
Former Governor Martin O'Malley (D-MD)

Republican Party:

President Mike Pence (R-IN)
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)

[Mike Thick]

Alaska is split with a Democratic State House, a Republican Senate, and a centrist Independent Governor.

Just curious: who's the centrist Independent Gov. of AK elected in 2022 if Bill Walker was first elected in 2014 & AK has a term limit?

Current State Representative Jason Grenn.

[Mike Thick]

I should note that I used an index of median household income and partisanship to make maps for House elections 2022-2026, but I accidentally deleted the write-up, and my left eye is screwed up temporarily for assorted reasons, but yeah, that's a thing that's happening sometime in the next few days

The results might surprise you, but are quite consistent with TD's theories.

[Mike Thick]

2022-2026 U.S. House Elections: What the F*** Just Happened

United States House of Representatives Elections, 2022:

Democrats: 241 (+47)
Republicans: 194 (-47)

United States House of Representatives Elections, 2024:

Democrats: 306 (+65)
Republicans: 129 (-65)

United States House of Representatives Elections, 2026:

Democrats: 328 (+12)
Republicans: 107 (-12)

Seat counts are rough, since I accidentally deleted them with the rest of the write-up. The venn diagrams in the corners mean nothing, and are only there because I borrowed the CD maps from Adam.

All the flips are based on an index of partisanship to median household income. David Valadao's district has the lowest score (most likely to flip) at 9, while Kevin Brady's district has the highest score (least likely to flip) at 417. Texas's 27th is the median district, at 242.

A lot of the seats that flip in 2022 are pretty standard swing-seat fare --  Texas's 23rd, Florida's 26th, Arizona's 2nd, Maine's 2nd. However, there are some very notable outliers. Rural districts in Eastern Washington/Oregon and California's far North flip. North Carolina sees five districts flip in one election. As Barbara Comstock hangs on in her wealthy NoVA district, even as Tom Garrett's Republican-leaning seat directly to her south flips. Northern Louisiana and parts of Mississippi flip to the Democrats.

2024 is where things start to get extremely odd. The Deep South continues to rapidly trend left. However, perhaps what's most notable is the giant splotch of red over Appalachia and Western Pennsylvania -- a detail of the way the index turned out that fits this timeline particularly well. Even as the Rust Belt flips en masse, though, Orange County remains a Republican stronghold, and suburban districts across the country continue to hold strong (with a few debatable exceptions, like NE-2 and whichever district has Oklahoma City in it).

In 2026, we start edging into some more suburban territory -- part of why I didn't go further, since flipping a bunch of suburban districts would really conflict with what happens in the TL. However, there is some more of the fare described throughout the timeline. Kentucky's 5th, the poorest district in the nation, finally switches allegiances, as does the Republican-since-1880 TN-1st.

TL;DR -- poor people, especially poor white people, stop voting Republican. Northern Virginia is more Republican than Mississippi. Hilarity ensues.

[Mike Thick]

CA-48 (and most of Orange County) stays Republican the whole time!?!

The backyard of the Reagan Revolution prevails through the Cordray era!

*whispers* it's because they're loaded

[Mike Thick]

Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

[Mike Thick]

Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

Sorry If I'm asking for too much, but what's the dem county percentage map?

I was actually going to make this, but I got lazy. Pawar wins Cook by a lot, and St. Clair and Randolph narrowly. Collar counties go yuge for Barickman, as does the area in his Champaign-based CD, and he runs narrowly ahead in the rest of the state with variations of a few percentage points between the various different regions Downstate. Actual map soon.

[Mike Thick]

Here's a map that I just farted out by looking at:
 - Poverty rates by county
 - Black population by county
 - Partisanship in 2016, to a certain extent
 - Total population, to ensure that the margins roughly corroborated an eight-point Republican win.

Typical Atlas colors, darker shades are larger margins of victory, you know the drill. The big navy blue thing that kind of looks like a guy swimming is Barickman's CD (approximately).

I'll take requests for write-ups and maps of other downballot races, which I assume is okay with TD.

[Mike Thick]

How close did TN-7 ever get to flipping in 2022/24/26?

Lots of poor white people, basically.

[Mike Thick]

West Virginia Gubernatorial Election, 2032:
State Senator Riley Keaton:
330,212 - 48.34%
U.S. Rep. Ryan White:
327,753 - 47.98%
Others:
25,138 - 3.68%

As Vice President Castro duked it out with his Republican opponent, both having sealed up their nominations long ago, a hotly contested gubernatorial race in West Virginia went under the radar.

The Democratic primary was dominated by the state's two Congressmen -- Ryan White, a younger millennial from the Northern district who had overseen fed-sponsored infrastructure programs in the Mid-Atlantic states, and Richard Ojeda, a decorated veteran with a record of winning tough State Senate races who had lost two campaigns for the southernmost seat before finally winning in the 2024 wave. Former State House Speaker Timothy Miley ran as well, but despite pulling decent fundraising numbers, he was unable to overcome his relative anonymity. Ojeda inspired tremendous enthusiasm among the formerly impoverished residents of his districts who had benefited from President Cordray's jobs programs, but White had deep-running ties to Democratic donors, and was able consistently outspend his opponent. Ultimately, White prevailed over Ojeda 46-41 with Miley far back at 14, in a fight marked by deep geographic division but little actual bitterness.

Meanwhile, the Republican primary was an equally contested affair. Attorney General John McCuskey started as the odds-on frontrunner, having cruised to victory in four statewide elections while Democratic Governors and even Presidential nominees won the state. His only opposition came from the 34-year-old Riley Keaton, a well-connected conservative who had won a seat in the State House of Delegates before he graduated college, and moved up to the State Senate just four years later. McCuskey made the fatal mistake of ignoring his primary opposition, training his fire on the Democrats and incumbent Governor Doug Reynolds as Keaton politicked up and down the state. On primary day, Keaton came out on top 50-48 in a stunner, as his well-structured data operation and ground game outperformed polls by nearly twenty points.

The general election was bitterly close, all the way through. Keaton ran on a strong record of accomplishment, having assisted the successful coordination between the infrastructure programs and private organizations, as well as operating a large microloan bank that serviced economically unstable coal country. White, meanwhile, wrapped himself around President Cordray and Vice President Castro, proposing the construction of a line connecting Charleston to the high-speed rail system servicing the East Coast. On election day, Keaton pulled out an extremely narrow 2,500-vote victory, close to the Presidential margin in the very competitive state, making him the youngest chief executive in the nation and the first Republican to win a gubernatorial election in 36 years.

[Mike Thick]

Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

*single tear rolls down cheek*
Finally free from the machine.

I realize this might be a bit too much, but could you post the results of the state house and senate?  Something tells me IL might have flipped.

Thank you so much for this.

Republicans make pretty significant gains, but there's no way that it's enough to overcome the majorities that Democrats have built up through nearly a decade of Democratic waves that deeply entrenched a lot of incumbents. Once Barickman has to sign off on district maps, though, things might improve a bit for Republicans.

[Mike Thick]

Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

*single tear rolls down cheek*
Finally free from the machine.

I realize this might be a bit too much, but could you post the results of the state house and senate?  Something tells me IL might have flipped.

Thank you so much for this.

Republicans make pretty significant gains, but there's no way that it's enough to overcome the majorities that Democrats have built up through nearly a decade of Democratic waves that deeply entrenched a lot of incumbents. Once Barickman has to sign off on district maps, though, things might improve a bit for Republicans.

The maps are exactly why I'm so happy this happens in the TL, once those get put in IL would have a good chance of flipping, especially with 2032 being an R wave iirc.

2032 was a 52-46 Democratic win. Republicans don't take back the Presidency until 2036.