Is Kansas really trending Democratic? (user search)
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  Is Kansas really trending Democratic? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is Kansas really trending Democratic?  (Read 1563 times)
Smash255
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« on: April 28, 2020, 09:45:55 PM »

Kansas is not on track to become the next Colorado, it's on track to become the next Indiana: a mostly Republican state that has a small chance of flipping in a landslide election (2008, in Indiana's case).

The Democrats have become stronger in Kansas in recent years for these reasons:

1. Backlash against Brownback (and others - Kobach, etc)
2. Growing diversity in the southwest part of the state. The most diverse municipality in Kansas is not in the KC or Wichita metros, it's Garden City. Since the 1980s, successive waves of immigration have hit the area, first from Southeast Asia, then Somalia, and more recently Mexico and Central America.
3. The suburban realignment is beginning to properly kick in in the Kansas City area. Johnson County has trended strongly toward the Democrats in recent years, and I would not be surprised to see Biden win the county, or at least come very close, this November.


Trump won Johnson County by 2.5 after Romney won it by 17.5.  Kobach lost it by 16.7%, granted different race, and that won't repeat itself for President.  55.3% have a Bachelor's Degree.  Johnson is GONE for the GOP, and the state is trending Democratic.   With that said, it isn't trending anywhere hard enough and is coming from too Republican for the Democrats to have any realistic shot of winning the state outside of a large national victory where it sneaks by (Indiana 2008)
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Smash255
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Posts: 15,454


« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2020, 12:18:10 PM »

I don't know why people say this just because a suburban congressional district flipped and a Democrat won a governor's seat (in a strong D year).  Larry Hogan won in Maryland.  St. Louis suburbs trended D too.  I don't see the argument.   

The St Louis suburbs didn't trend nearly as hard as Johnson County and were balanced out by more GOP trends elsewhere in the state.   You don't have the same GOP trends in rural Kansas as you did in rural Missouri to balance out the suburban trends (in part because rural Kansas has traditionally been more GOP than rural Missouri it didn't have nearly as far to move)

With that said I don't think anyone is making a suggestion that Kansas would be in play outside a potentially lopsided national election perhaps, but that there is some movement in the state as a whole.  Trending a certain way and actually being competitive are two very different things.
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