Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

Compared with the Rasmussen Weekly Tracking Poll from exactly 4 years ago, the numbers are completely reversed:

Week ending Sept. 2, 2004:

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 46%

Today:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers

Republicans had, well, had mostly completed, their convention by that point.

[J. J.]

Compared with the Rasmussen Weekly Tracking Poll from exactly 4 years ago, the numbers are completely reversed:

Week ending Sept. 2, 2004:

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 46%

Today:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers

Republicans had, well, had mostly completed, their convention by that point.

Not that it really matters much.  2004 was an incredibly galvanized year--results ranged from Bush +2.8 to Kerry +2.8.  Bumps, all movements, were smaller.

No, Bush+16 actually - but let me come back to this in about 2-3 weeks when a post-convention comparison with 2004 makes more sense.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html (scroll down to bottom)

First, you are citing what looks like an outlier. 

Second, you are talking different poll comparison.

Third, you are looking at a post convention bump after both convention.

Kerry, the Monday after his speech, or Gore the Monday after his speech, would be a more apt comparison.

[J. J.]

Damn, I was going to post that!  It's either the Palin *bump* or polling on Labor Day phenomenon.  Your choose.  

It's too early to deal with Bristol's pregnancy.  That didn't really hit to midday yesterday.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen polls in the evening (as far as I know).

And it takes a while for for the news to trickle down.  My landlord is fascinated by politics.  I spoke to him Sunday afternoon.  He knew the polling from the day before, but I was able to tell him everything that happened that morning.

It takes a while to trickle through to the voter, or poll responder.

[J. J.]

While there isn't a weekend Obama bounce in Rasmussen, there might have been something related to Gustav.  You had 4 Republican states (probably close to 10% of the US population) where there was a lot evacuations due to to Gustav; that alone could account for it.

[J. J.]

While there isn't a weekend Obama bounce in Rasmussen, there might have been something related to Gustav.  You had 4 Republican states (probably close to 10% of the US population) where there was a lot evacuations due to to Gustav; that alone could account for it.

I doubt more than 1% of the country's population (3 million) evacuated their homes, and certainly no more than 2%.

You also have phone lines down, people away from their phones getting supplies, people not responding because they are watch hurricane coverage.  Part of that is why M-D won't poll FL after a hurricane.  If we should get one in the NE, you might see an Obama drop (and we might).

[J. J.]

While there isn't a weekend Obama bounce in Rasmussen, there might have been something related to Gustav.  You had 4 Republican states (probably close to 10% of the US population) where there was a lot evacuations due to to Gustav; that alone could account for it.

oh thats a relief. glad to see everything is a-okay in mccain land. nothing bad ever happens there.

No, but follows my corolary to JJ's First Rule, never trust one poll.  

One thing that it probably isn't is a weekend bounce for Obama, since that doesn't Occur on Rasmussen.  Do to the timing, it probably isn't a Bristol bounce.

BTW:  I said the same thing after the Biden slump; it took me about 2-4 days of bad polling before I said there was a problem.

[J. J.]

Gov. Palin speech tonight will make or break Sen. McCain.

So will McCain's speech.  She could be brilliant, and he could blow it.

He broke up pair to draw to inside straight flush. 

[J. J.]

This is the DNC bounce evaporating.

[J. J.]

Do they break it down into day-by-day samples anywhere?

No, not usually, but you can kinda tell if something is a good or bad sample for one candidate.

[J. J.]

I expect a Bradley Effect, but a very small one of less than 1 point.  Any tie, I give to McCain.

[J. J.]

I got their site, but they have the new tracking up for premium members only. Lame.

To MODU: That would be a reasonable number. Remember, today is not only factoring in Palin's speech, it's also factoring out Labor Day. Of course, I doubt McCain's favorability changes much as a result of Palin's speech.

I honestly think you'll see a bigger Labor Day effect in Gallup.  Rasmussen doesn't have a weekend Obama bounce, or a midweek McCain bounce.

[J. J.]

Obama: (nc, -2)
McCain: (+2, +1)

Right?

[J. J.]

Considering that this is both the labor day sample rolling out and Palin's speech rolling in, I'm actually not too displeased.

As JJ says, we'll know what really happened on Monday

Sam's right on the volatility.  I would not be too surprised if you'll see a clear lead in Gallup either today or tomorrow.

I really think you're going to have to wait until the middle of next week to have an idea.

[J. J.]

Infomania: the samples for the last few days have been about Obama +2 (last night w/ Palin), Obama +6 (night prior w/ Lieberman) and McCain +2 (beginning of convention).

We had the CBS poll at +8 Obama, on 9/1.

[J. J.]

I don't think the last two are correct on that, IMHO, and I think last night was slightly more pro-McCain, but who knows.  Are they just guessing?

I will wager a guess that there was an Obama bounce from the DNC and a McCain bounce from the RNC.  I do so love being definitive. 

[J. J.]

"Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear."

Okay, that makes sense.

Ah, I've kind of been saying that for a while.

Still, I expected an increase for McCain.  The favorable/unfavorable numbers are what I've expected, however.

[J. J.]

"Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear."

Okay, that makes sense.

Ah, I've kind of been saying that for a while.

Still, I expected an increase for McCain.  The favorable/unfavorable numbers are what I've expected, however.

What do you think the margin will be by Tuesday?

I expect, on one of the polls, to see a +4 McCain or either Rasmussen or Gallup.  I have to admit, I thought the numbers today would be higher.

[J. J.]

"Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear."

Okay, that makes sense.

Ah, I've kind of been saying that for a while.

Still, I expected an increase for McCain.  The favorable/unfavorable numbers are what I've expected, however.

What do you think the margin will be by Tuesday?

I expect, on one of the polls, to see a +4 McCain or either Rasmussen or Gallup.  I have to admit, I thought the numbers today would be higher.

It will be Obama by 2-4%.

Right now it's +1 Obama.

I will be a clearer however.  At some point, the bounce will be +4 McCain on Gallup or Rasmussen.  I can't tell if Tuesday will be the peak day.

[J. J.]

Sunday - September 6, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 46% / 48%, including leaners (+1, +2)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 58% favorable, 40% unfavorable (nc, -1)

We're seeing the bounce and the favorable/unfavorable ratings really do not look good for Obama.  The attacks are working, but how long is another matter.

[J. J.]

People do not want a good speaker. They want actual content in the speeches.

Yes, which is why Obama's speech was better.

Barely.

[J. J.]

Is to seem with  pie in the sky or false  specifics better than not to seem with  no specifics at all, that is the question.

Speaking of pie in the sky what do you think of this love affair that republicans have with drilling. They must understand it will do almost nothing to solve our energy problem since that oil was going to be drilled out one day anyways. And the more we drill now the less we have for later so aren't we just playing into the hands of the speculators? The energy policy of the republicans is extremely shortsighted.

McCain's energy policy is all of the above.  I can't see how that is "shortsighted".

"Drill baby drill" repeated a million times. WTF was up with that? I will grant you that Mccain's energy policy is better on one regard and that is nuclear. But he didn't even talk about anything specific with wind and solar, two technologies that could revolutionize energy. Here in california almost everybody with a house could produce all the electricity they need from solar. It just needs to be made cheaper which the government could help with by subsidyising it now for consumers which will lead to an overall reduction in solar panel prices later.

Actually, he did mention a litany of a alternative energy sources, including wind power.  That was a bit more specific than just saying "alternative energy."

[J. J.]

Bounce is leaving, but even with the shift, the favorable/unfavorable is stronger toward McCain.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen has been hugely stable.  It doesn't swing a lot.  There is no midweek/weekend bounce. 

Right now, it is a tie.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen has been hugely stable.  It doesn't swing a lot.  There is no midweek/weekend bounce. 

Right now, it is a tie.

Mensa are so lucky to have you as a memeber.

Yes, and very fortunately, you cannot get it.