NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[wbrocks67]

I think VBM. They won't start counting provisionals until all VBM ballots are received, and today was the deadline.

You're right - I wonder if counties have actually counted any of the post-election day VBMs yet, or those are going to be processed starting tomorrow?

[Roll Roons]

I think VBM. They won't start counting provisionals until all VBM ballots are received, and today was the deadline.

You're right - I wonder if counties have actually counted any of the post-election day VBMs yet, or those are going to be processed starting tomorrow?

They've been counting them as they come in.

[philly09]

Has there been any change in the Sweeney/Durr race? Sweeney was down 2,298 votes and isn't conceding.

[smoltchanov]

Well, a win is a win, but 2,7-2,8% win in Biden+16 state is nothing to brag about. New Jersey is quintessential suburban state, so at least some "backward" (to Republican party) movement of educated suburbanites possibly takes place. Combined with energization of Republican electorate and continued Democratic bleeding among WWC and in rural areas - situation is serious, to put it mildly..

[wbrocks67]

Well, a win is a win, but 2,7-2,8% win in Biden+16 state is nothing to brag about. New Jersey is quintessential suburban state, so at least some "backward" (to Republican party) movement of educated suburbanites possibly takes place. Combined with energization of Republican electorate and continued Democratic bleeding among WWC and in rural areas - situation is serious, to put it mildly..

They're not done counting

[wbrocks67]

I think VBM. They won't start counting provisionals until all VBM ballots are received, and today was the deadline.

You're right - I wonder if counties have actually counted any of the post-election day VBMs yet, or those are going to be processed starting tomorrow?

They've been counting them as they come in.

Have they uploaded results though? There were no updates on Sat or Sun, and only a few counties reported extra results yesterday (mostly from Hudson though)

[Woody]

It's New Jersey after all.

[Orwell]

Did SirWoodbury leave the Secular Blog for a year after promising he would should Ossoff/Warnock win.

[Sir Mohamed]

May have cost him a 1 pt. or 2, don't think it explains his weak performance in general.

Did SirWoodbury leave the Secular Blog for a year after promising he would should Ossoff/Warnock win.

He only deletes threads, especially Reaction to..., when answers are uncomfortable and contradict his pro-GOP narrative.

[Del Tachi]

Ethnic considerations are often an important aspect of many state/local races that the Atlas hive and other #serious pundits neglect to discuss, sure enough

[Skill and Chance]

Ethnic considerations are often an important aspect of many state/local races that the Atlas hive and other #serious pundits often neglect, sure enough

I mean, maybe?  The Italian and Irish stuff in the NE is getting to be ancient history now though. 

[Senator Incitatus]

This actually does move some votes still, but Italians in New Jersey are increasingly an unwinnable demographic for Democrats as the Kennedy generation dies out.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

This actually does move some votes still, but Italians in New Jersey are increasingly an unwinnable demographic for Democrats as the Kennedy generation dies out.

NJ Dems better make sure to fully embrace the ITALIAN FUTURE

[Senator Incitatus]

This actually does move some votes still, but Italians in New Jersey are increasingly an unwinnable demographic for Democrats as the Kennedy generation dies out.

NJ Dems better make sure to fully embrace the ITALIAN FUTURE

They should focus more on slowing the assimilation of white Hispanics, who are following an identical path.

[kwabbit]

Well, a win is a win, but 2,7-2,8% win in Biden+16 state is nothing to brag about. New Jersey is quintessential suburban state, so at least some "backward" (to Republican party) movement of educated suburbanites possibly takes place. Combined with energization of Republican electorate and continued Democratic bleeding among WWC and in rural areas - situation is serious, to put it mildly..

The story of the election is that Murphy and other Dems completely collapsed in South Jersey. They held up quite well in Morris, Somerset, and Hunterdon. If anything it’s foreboding a massive collapse for the Dems in the Midwest given how WWC it is. But I wouldn’t be too worried for the Dems in suburban Chicago or Atlanta where they’ve made big gains with educated Whites.

[Roll Roons]

Also I do wonder how this race would have gone if Trump was still in the White House. I bet the result would have been similar to 2017, though with Murphy doing slightly worse in the South and considerably improving in the suburban/exurban North.

And Sweeney probably wouldn't have lost.

[President Johnson]

This actually does move some votes still, but Italians in New Jersey are increasingly an unwinnable demographic for Democrats as the Kennedy generation dies out.

NJ Dems better make sure to fully embrace the ITALIAN FUTURE

Battista Minola 1616 for governor then?

[wbrocks67]

A few more votes today, increasing Murphy lead to +2.7%

Murphy (D) 1,288,462 (51.0%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,220,907 (48.3%)

This batch went Murphy 3,173 / Ciatarelli 1,022

The slow and painful count continues, Murphy lead now +2.8% (70,670 votes)

Murphy (D) 1,295,739 (51.0%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,225,069 (48.2%)

Latest votes went Murphy 7,277 - Ciattarelli 4,162

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/AlexandraWilkes/status/1458246382146437121?s=20

[kwabbit]

Thanks for filling in for Bronz during his time out.

This definitely part of the reason. The fact that Murphy is yet another Manhattan financier carpetbagging vs. Ciatarelli being a native New Jerseyan did make some difference. Ciatarelli definitely thought so, labelling himself as 'Jersey Jack'.

Italians are definitely a problem group for Democrats. They are one of the few upwardly mobile White groups that have trended R during the Trump era.

[Senator Incitatus]

Italians probably did turn out for higher rates for Ciattarelli, who is the first candidate in the state to ever really campaign as a "Republican Italian." (Really! But it's hard to explain what I mean by this. Christie arguably did it in 2009.)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/johnsb01/status/1458495149445689355

[beaver2.0]

Ethnic considerations are often an important aspect of many state/local races that the Atlas hive and other #serious pundits often neglect, sure enough

I mean, maybe?  The Italian and Irish stuff in the NE is getting to be ancient history now though. 

You say this but I voted for a city council candidate because he's irish.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This actually does move some votes still, but Italians in New Jersey are increasingly an unwinnable demographic for Democrats as the Kennedy generation dies out.

NJ Dems better make sure to fully embrace the ITALIAN FUTURE

Battista Minola 1616 for governor then?

I feel like I am not the kind of Italian who would have strong appeal to the people this thread is discussing, and not just because I am actually from Italy and not, you know, from New Jersey. Having said that, I have an innate dislike for the Garden State, so I would not be interested.

[Rjjr77]

It's New Jersey after all.

The economy was the top factor, taxes were the second, 15 other issues, the fact that his opponent was actually from new jersey came 18th, and ethnicity was 19th