Bold predictions.

[Kingpoleon]

The General Election Scenarios:

I. The Favored:

1. Democratic Victory:
a. Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/John Kerry(D-MS): 285 EVs - Notably loses Ohio and Florida

b. Marco Rubio(R-FL)/Rob Portman(R-OH): 253 EVs - Notably loses Virginia

2. Republican Victory:

a. Marco Rubio(R-FL)/Jim Webb(R-VA): 270 EVs - Notably loses Pennsylvania

b. Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Robert Casey, Jr.(D-PA): Notably loses New Hampshire, Virginia, and Ohio


II. The Underdog:


1. Republican Victory:

a. John Kasich(R-OH)/Marco Rubio(R-FL): 290 EVs - Notably loses Nevada

b. Joe Biden(D-DE)/Keith Ellison(D-MN): 248 EVs - Notably loses New Hampshire, Virginia and Pennsylvania

2. Democratic Victory:

a. Joe Biden(D-DE)/Joseph P. Kennedy III(D-MS): 303 EVs - Notably loses Florida

b. Bobby Jindal(R-LA)/Jeb Bush(R-FL): 235 EVs - Notably loses Virginia




.... Interestingly enough, I have to agree with Deputy Secretary of the Clinton White House Staff, David Goodman: "As a Democrat, I fear John Kasich."

[Kingpoleon]

a. Marco Rubio(R-FL)/Jim Webb(R-VA): 270 EVs - Notably loses Pennsylvania

b. Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Robert Casey, Jr.(D-PA): Notably loses New Hampshire, Virginia, and Ohio




.... Interestingly enough, I have to agree with Deputy Secretary of the Clinton White House Staff, David Goodman: "As a Democrat, I fear John Kasich."

Talk about bold on those VP selections. I like the Jim Webb switch, especially given that he's in the Dem race now.

If Hillary gets in the general she either loses or wins LBJ style. If Bernie Sanders can win the nomination he would win with more EVs than Clinton, given the huge wave of momentum and ideological shift that would be necessary behind his campaign.

Rubio chooses a Lieberman-esque figure in Webb, while Clinton goes with a charismatic Biden-esque figure in Casey. Honestly, a Rubio vs. Clinton debate would likely give Rubio victories using the "Young & New" strategy. 2/3 Rubio.

The Vice Presidential candidates are two interesting personalities - policy stoic Casey versus intensive analytical Webb. A toss-up, most likely.

Anyway, I ran the system and evened out the popular vote. Rubio received a +3.33% Charisma in five swing states, while Clinton received a +5% Experience in Lean-Dem states like Pennsylvania, Iowa, Nevada, and such. With a few other modifiers, Rubio got 50.85% of the popular vote to Clinton's 49.55%.

Oddly enough, I found a few interesting third party possibilities:

Green Party: Keith Ellison(D-MN), Rahm Emanuel(D-IL), Jesse Jackson, Jr.(D-IL); likely Jill Stein(G-MS)/Gayle McLaughin(G-CA) - 0.38%
Libertarian Party: Rand Paul(R-KY), Ron Paul(R-TX), Gary Johnson(L-NM), Mile Gravel(L-AK); Rand Paul(R-KY)/Gary Johnson(L-NM) - 1.01%
Constitution Party: Michele Bachmann(R-MN), Donald Trump(R-NY); Virgil Goode(C-VA)/Alan Keyes(C-MD) - 0.01%

As to your point, I don't know - Nixon 1960, perhaps.

I presume Rubio receives, say, 49.32% to 49.21%. Now, then, what is this? Narrow popular vote win by a comparative nobody to an elder stateswoman-like person?





In short: Yes, I based that one off 1960.

[Kingpoleon]

Iowa: Scott Walker
New Hampshire: John Kasich
South Carolina: Jeb Bush
Nevada: Marco Rubio

[Kingpoleon]

Polls have a 4-point Republican bias (due to trying to compensate for the 2014 results), and 80% of the members of this forum predict a Bush win, while Clinton actually wins by about the same margin as Obama '12. The average prediction on this site gets 6 senate races wrong: people predict that Democrats only pick up IL and WI, and lose NV. Democrats actually win IL, WI, NH, FL, PA, OH, and (due to McCain getting primaried) AZ.

How is Portman going to lose to Strickland?

As for Nevada, Heck has 49% of the vote against Masto's 35%. Even assuming the four-point bias is here already, Heck has been a much better campaigner than Masto. She's only won by depicting her opponent as more extreme than Sandoval(which was admittedly true). She wouldn't get many independent votes by pulling that against Heck.

[Kingpoleon]

New Predictions for the Early States

Iowa - Carson(27.5%), Cruz(25%), Rubio(25%), Field(22.5%)
New Hampshire - Kasich(30%), Fiorina(27.5%), Bush (12.5%), Field(30%)
South Carolina - Carson(25%), Rubio(25%), Field(50%)
Nevada - Fiorina(20%), Paul(15%), Kasich(15%), Field(50%)

[Kingpoleon]

New Predictions for the Early States

Iowa - Carson(27.5%), Cruz(25%), Rubio(25%), Field(22.5%)
New Hampshire - Kasich(30%), Fiorina(27.5%), Bush (12.5%), Field(30%)
South Carolina - Carson(25%), Rubio(25%), Field(50%)
Nevada - Fiorina(20%), Paul(15%), Kasich(15%), Field(50%)

Are these odds or predictions?

Odds while I narrow down everything in my head.