NH-Senate Poll (6/19-7/1) from WMUR/UNH (
https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2014_summer_senate070914.pdf): Shaheen 50, Brown 38, Undecided 12
Shaheen 57, Smith 34, Undecided 9
Shaheen 56, Rubens 30, Undecided 14
Favorable/UnfavorableShaheen - 57/29
Brown - 31/40
Smith - 18/21 (only 45% name recognition)
Rubens - 10/8 (only 23% name recognition)
(The one republican that NH knows and likes appears to be Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who has a 50/25 favorable/unfavorable rating. )
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I was disregarding a lot of the recent polling in this race due to it coming from companies like ARG and Vox Populi. But now that WMUR (and Suffolk) have confirmed what the often-not-trustworthy pollsters found (Shaheen ahead by 10-12 against Brown, who is the likely R nominee), I'm ready to upgrade Shaheen's chances.
NH-Sen moves from Leaning Democratic to
Strongly Leaning Democratic.
While Scott Brown could turn things around if Shaheen has a major gaffe or two or we get a 1994-style wave election, right now it looks like the best option for republicans is to write off this race completely and admit that courting a carpetbagger was a bad decision.
