Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

[jaichind]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/espanol/sns-es-mexico-obrador-avala-candidato-acusado-de-violacion-20210305-qflmlwu6onem7ggjchz4m2txhu-story.html

"AMLO prevails, endorses candidate accused of rape"

It seems after some review MORENA is still going to go ahead with Felix Salgado Macedonio candidacy in Guerrero.  Their internal polling must show him still ahead and calculating that backing down would mean the core MORENA vote might not turnout

[jaichind]

Massive Caller poll for Guerrero 

MORENA's Felix Salgado Macedonio still ahead




In SLP PVEM takes the lead over PAN-PRI-PRD



Most other states MORENA if anything is widening his lead.  PAN is still ahead in Baja California Sur, Chihuahua and Querétaro while it is neck-to-neck between PRI and MORENA in Nuevo León but in the rest MORENA is well ahead.

[jaichind]

Massive Caller have daily tracking polls on the 5 governor races that are high profile or likely to be close

Colima


Guerrero


NL


SLP


Sonara

[jaichind]

https://www.dallasnews.com/espanol/al-dia/mexico/2021/03/26/mexico-ine-revoco-la-candidatura-de-felix-salgado-macedonio-para-gobernador-de-guerrero/

It seems INE has revoked MORENA's Felix Salgado Macedonio candidacy.  What a mess.   I am sure he will challenge this so this is clearly not over yet

[jaichind]

Reforma poll for legislature has MORENA still with a massive lead


MORENA         45
PRI                 18
PAN                17
PRD                 4
PVEM               4
MC                   3
PT                    3

By alliance MORENA-PVEM-PT 52 PAN-PRI-PRD 39

[jaichind]

El Financiero poll on legislative race

On paper, PRI-PAN-PRD is almost as high as MORENA-PVEM-PT

[jaichind]

Where do you find these polls? I can usually only find Massive Caller polls.

Due to the nature of my work I have access to various proprietary news wires that focused on world political developments.  These wires have links to various polls that are done by local media.  In theory if you search google news every day you can find these stories but these news wires does this work for you.

[jaichind]

In Guerrero, after MORENA swapped out Félix Salgado and swapped in his daughter Evelyn Salgado, MORENA still seems to be ahead

[jaichind]

Interesting that you cover Chihuahua today, given a new Massive Caller poll came out today showing Morena leading for the first time. I can see this being an upset in favor of Morena given the tight margins and how good Morena has been with voter outreach. Great writeups btw! They're really good reads.

Other recent polls also show MORENA pulling slightly ahead

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexicos-president-backs-probe-opposition-governor-candidates-2021-05-11/

"Mexico’s president backs probe of opposition governor candidates"

AMLO looking to strike back after MORENA had their governor candidates in Guerrero and Michoacán removed and had to be replaced.

[jaichind]

I think the accident in the 12th Metro line ended the political careers of both Ebrard and Sheinbaum respecting to the average person, Sheinbaum is trying to blame Mancera with the typical ''ThE PaSt GoVeRnMeNt CaUsEd AlL tHe FaIlUrEs'' but it isn't sticking with the General Public.

That's a pretty big blow for MORENA.  Are not Sheinbaum and Ebrard precisely the people talked about as the successors to AMLO in MORENA after 2024 ?

[jaichind]

I think the accident in the 12th Metro line ended the political careers of both Ebrard and Sheinbaum respecting to the average person, Sheinbaum is trying to blame Mancera with the typical ''ThE PaSt GoVeRnMeNt CaUsEd AlL tHe FaIlUrEs'' but it isn't sticking with the General Public.

That's a pretty big blow for MORENA.  Are not Sheinbaum and Ebrard precisely the people talked about as the successors to AMLO in MORENA after 2024 ?

Yeah Sheinbaum in particular in seen as his disciple and who AMLO would back over everyone else. I'm not sure if this will be significant enough to sink them, given that they still have 3 years to turn things around. It isn't great obviously though.

https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/2021/05/12/cae-22-puntos-la-aprobacion-de-sheinbaum-tras-colapso-de-linea-12/

The approval rating of Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum dropped 22%  following the collapse of an elevated metro line in the capital that killed 26 people, daily El Financiero reported on Wednesday.

[jaichind]

Massive Caller Congressional poll has pro-AMLO block falling short of majority based on opposition consolidation of PAN-PRI-PRD alliance




The alliances are not in place everywhere but in terms of vote share

MORENA-PVEM-PT 44.1%
PAN-PRI-PRD        46.0%

[jaichind]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9601471/Mexico-says-FBI-investigating-governors-links-money-laundering.html

"Mexico President López Obrador says the FBI is investigating border town governor's ties to money laundering as a federal judge signs off on arrest warrant"

The current Tamaulipas governor is from PAN and was elected in 2016 as the first non-PRI governor of Tamaulipas since the rise of PR as the dominate party of Mexico in the 1930s.

[jaichind]

JPM did a simulation of the 2021 legislative elections can came up with

MORENA-PVEM-PT    268
PAN-PRI-PRD           200
Others                      32 (I assume most of this will be MC)

[jaichind]

Going by public polling it seems the governor races two weeks out are

Baja California: current MORENA: Solid MORENA-PT-PVEM
Baja California Sur: current PAN: lean PAN-PRI-PRD over MORENA-PT
Campeche: current PRI: three way tossup between MORENA-PT, PRI-PAN-PRD and MC
Chihuahua: current PAN: tossup between MORENA-PT and PAN-PRD
Colima: current PRI: solid MORENA-PANAL
Guerrero: current PRI: solid MORENA
Michoacán: current PRD: tossup between MORENA-PT and PRD-PAN-PRD
Nayarit : current PAN: Solid MORENA-PT-PVEM
Nuevo León: current PRI rebel (El Bronco): tossup between MORENA-PT-PVEM and PRI-PRD
Querétaro: current PAN: Solid PAN
San Luis Potosí: current PRI: lean PAN-PRI-PRD over MORENA and PVEM-PT
Sinaloa: current PRI: lean MORENA over PRI-PAN-PRD
Sonora: current PRI: lean MORENA-PT-PVEM over PRI-PAN-PRD
Tlaxcala: current PRI: lean MORENA-PT-PVEM over PRI-PAN-PRD
Zacatecas: current PRI: tossup between MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PRI-PAN-PRD

It seems in most races the MORENA margins have narrowed from a few months ago as AMLO's ratings have declined.  MORENA is ahead in most races but the margin of error is a lot lower now and if this momentum continues AMLO might get a nasty surprise election night.

[jaichind]

Nuevo León: current PRI rebel (El Bronco): tossup between MORENA-PT-PVEM and PRI-PRD

In what world? Clara Luz Flores is very far behind in every poll, ever since late March, and the race very clearly is between Adrián de la Garza and Samuel García -- the latter may have an edge, although the number of polls by less reputable pollsters giving wildly different numbers makes it all quite messy. If the PAN does manage to finish strong, as some polls could suggest, after having been counted for dead for the entire campaign, there's even a chance that Clara Luz Flores would be pushed into fourth place.

Oops, typo by me.  I meant tossup between PRI-PRD and MC.   Thanks for catching this.

[jaichind]

Bradesco Securities ratings of governor races

Baja California: MORENA
Baja California Sur: PAN
Campeche: Tossup (lean MC over PRI-PAN-PRD, MORENA being pushed to third)
Chihuahua: PAN
Colima: MORENA
Guerrero: MORENA
Michoacán: tossup (lean MORENA over PRD-PRI-PAN)
Nayarit : MORENA
Nuevo León: tossup (lean MC over PRI-PRD)
Querétaro: PAN
San Luis Potosí: tossup (between PAN-PRI-PRD and PVEM)
Sinaloa: tossup (lean MORENA over PRI-PAN-PRD)
Sonora: tossup (between MORENA and PRI-PAN-PRD, MC dropping out to back PRI-PAN-PRD decisive)
Tlaxcala: MORENA
Zacatecas: MORENA

MC could win two governorships

[jaichind]

El Universal poll has MORENA alliance with landslide victory

https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/elecciones/morena-y-aliados-12-curules-de-mayoria-calificada-en-san-lazaro

Levels of support (filtering out undecided)

MORENA         41
PVEM               7
PT                   4
PAN               16
PRI                15
PRD                3
MC                 8
PES                2.6
PFM               2.8

From which they project in terms of seats

MORENA        228
PVEM              49
PT                  45
PAN                79
PRI                 62
PRD                20
MC                 16

Which would imply that MORENA would gain 37 seats from 2018 results.

I suspect that the undecideds will break against MORENA so these numbers seem too good for MORENA.  Also given the 8% rule I do not know how MORENA will get to 228 seats unless the vast majority of MORENA-PVEM-PT alliance candidates are designated as PVEM or PT candidates which could very well be the case.

[jaichind]

Just to confirm parties in Mexico still gets dissolved when they get less than 3% of the votes?
If so, there is a possibility that PRD fall under the threshold and gets dissolved.

Yes.  I believe that this rule is still in place.

[jaichind]

El País poll from a couple of weeks ago on Legislative race also has MORENA-PT-PVEM bloc with an easy majority but also some demographic breakdown





It seems unlike 2018 the youth vote has shifted to PAN but the older vote have shifted toward MORENA.  MORENA also have a relative edge with men and PAN have a relative edge with women.

[jaichind]

Reforma poll has AMLO bloc keeping its majority although most likely to lose seats from the 306 it got in 2018.  This poll has PT PVEM and PRD all at risk of falling below 3% which I am sure is adding to the risk of the AMLO block will lose seats.

[jaichind]

JP Morgan last election simulator still has the AMLO bloc losing a lot of seats

MORENA-PVEM-PT   259
PAN-PRI-PRD          203
Rest (mostly MC)      38

if true this would be a big blow to AMLO who most likely was hoping to get to 335 or 2/3 majority from 306 that his bloc won in 2018.

[jaichind]

In the 300 district seats, the two major alliances (MORENA-PVEM-PT and PAN-PRI-PRD) are not perfect.

MORENA-PVEM-PT has an alliance in 183 seats and allocated (MORENA 83, PVEM 50, PT 45).  In the other 117 seats MORENA PVEM and PT will run separately.  Due to the need to get around 8% rule I am pretty sure at least half of the PVEM and PT candidates are really MORENA running on PVEM and PT identification. 

PAN-PRI-PRD has an alliance in 219 seats and allocated (PRI 77  PAN 72 PRD 70).  In 81 seats PAN PRI and PRD will run separately. 

MC will run in all 300 seats.
RSP will run in 296 seats (new Leftist party)
FPM will run in 296 seats (MORENA splinter)
PES will run in 299 seats (Christian social conservative, ex-ally of MORENA.)  PES failed to win 3% in 2018 and got deregistered.  PES is trying to get around 3% this time around to become a registered party and get government funding.   

Given MORENA-PVEM-PT alliance vote is mostly concentrated with MORENA the fact that in 117 seats these 3 parties will separately will hurt a lot less than PAN-PRI-PRD will run separately in 81 seats since in many states PAN and PRI support are evenly split letting MORENA to run away with most of the seats in those 81 seats.

[jaichind]

PREP should show up the election night for preliminarly results on the various election commission websites

Federal election:    https://www.ine.mx/

Baja California:   https://www.ieebc.mx/
Baja California Sur:   https://www.ieebcs.org.mx/
Campeche:    https://www.ieec.org.mx/
Chihuahua:   https://www.ieechihuahua.org.mx/
Colima:   https://ieecolima.org.mx/
Guerrero:  https://iepcgro.mx/proceso2021/
Michoacán:   https://www.iem.org.mx/
Nayarit : https://ieenayarit.org/
Nuevo León:  https://www.ceenl.mx/
Querétaro:  https://www.ieeq.mx/
San Luis Potosí:  http://www.ceepacslp.org.mx/ceepac/
Sinaloa:  https://www.ieesinaloa.mx/
Sonora:  http://www.ieesonora.org.mx/
Tlaxcala:  https://www.itetlax.org.mx/
Zacatecas:  http://www.ieez.org.mx/