Do polls really matter before October?

[Obama24]

I feel like while some voters may have their preferences, a lot can happen between now and early November. How many voters are there who don't make their choice until after the debates, or until election day itself?

Can any poll taken before around October as such be considered reliable?

[TML]

Remember that polls are snapshots in time and are not meant to be predictive of the final result, especially those that are taken very early (as Presidents Thomas Dewey and Michael Dukakis can attest). Campaigns can use polls as reference points in deciding how/where to invest political resources, but they should not be interpreted to mean "Candidate X is all but certain to win/lose" unless the margin is well outside the margin of error.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No they don't Trump +1o is really ridiculous Rassy

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

I’d be more concerned by Biden’s pathetic Job Approvals. He can’t win the election with his current JA.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I say no, and always have, since Americans have short-term memories and nothing ever seems to matter unless it happens in the last few weeks. Look at 2016. Trump was done in early October, post-pussygate, then a few weeks later Comey opens his big mouth and the campaign ends with Clinton's emails in the spotlight in the home-stretch.

Why I think some are getting despondent is because a lot has been happening already in these first few months, yet polls are only moving ever so slightly in one way, or noticeably in the other.

It seems like it's going to take something significant in Biden's favor, or significant against Trump to move the polls to where many of us want them to be.

This assumes polls this year are even worth trusting, which I am still somewhat skeptical of.

[Obama24]

I say no, and always have, since Americans have short-term memories and nothing ever seems to matter unless it happens in the last few weeks. Look at 2016. Trump was done in early October, post-pussygate, then a few weeks later Comey opens his big mouth and the campaign ends with Clinton's emails in the spotlight in the home-stretch.

Why I think some are getting despondent is because a lot has been happening already in these first few months, yet polls are only moving ever so slightly in one way, or noticeably in the other.

It seems like it's going to take something significant in Biden's favor, or significant against Trump to move the polls to where many of us want them to be.

This assumes polls this year are even worth trusting, which I am still somewhat skeptical of.

My prediction is that you will see a conviction of Trump happen around the summer, and another right around the debates, which will cripple his campaign.

As it stands right now, meaning, were the election to be held this week, I think Trump would pull off a narrow victory like Clinton in 1992 in terms of magnitude in terms of the popular vote, and like 2016 in terms of the electoral vote.

But, I do think he will be convicted on one or more charges and be in the process of appeal come debate time, and I think Biden's team will hammer at his status as a convicted felon throughout the fall and during the debates rather than truly debate anything of substance - and I think using that, Biden will narrowly win.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I say no, and always have, since Americans have short-term memories and nothing ever seems to matter unless it happens in the last few weeks. Look at 2016. Trump was done in early October, post-pussygate, then a few weeks later Comey opens his big mouth and the campaign ends with Clinton's emails in the spotlight in the home-stretch.

Why I think some are getting despondent is because a lot has been happening already in these first few months, yet polls are only moving ever so slightly in one way, or noticeably in the other.

It seems like it's going to take something significant in Biden's favor, or significant against Trump to move the polls to where many of us want them to be.

This assumes polls this year are even worth trusting, which I am still somewhat skeptical of.

My prediction is that you will see a conviction of Trump happen around the summer, and another right around the debates, which will cripple his campaign.

As it stands right now, meaning, were the election to be held this week, I think Trump would pull off a narrow victory like Clinton in 1992 in terms of magnitude in terms of the popular vote, and like 2016 in terms of the electoral vote.

But, I do think he will be convicted on one or more charges and be in the process of appeal come debate time, and I think Biden's team will hammer at his status as a convicted felon throughout the fall and during the debates rather than truly debate anything of substance - and I think using that, Biden will narrowly win.

A conviction might happen, but only with the New York trial, and it remains to be seen if Americans will care or if Trump will weasel his way out of the negative perceptions of it. That might be bring too pessimistic though, as polls even now suggest Trump would lose support and Biden would gain if a conviction occurs. Can we trust them to remain that way? I don't know.

The Georgia trial starts in the summer and will probably not conclude until next year, if it's allowed to proceed.

Both Jack Smith trials might as well be as good as delayed in perpetuity.

So, we're left with the New York trial which does possibly have the highest potential of Trump getting acquitted or a hung jury/mistrial.

[Mr. Smith]

Yes, it's all gospel truth after the Conventions and their bumps have subsided.

Trump took over Ohio and Iowa something fierce by September, and that was already proof the Midwest "Blue Wall" could be cracked.

Romney took over NC for good in September after that debate.

[Obama24]

I say no, and always have, since Americans have short-term memories and nothing ever seems to matter unless it happens in the last few weeks. Look at 2016. Trump was done in early October, post-pussygate, then a few weeks later Comey opens his big mouth and the campaign ends with Clinton's emails in the spotlight in the home-stretch.

Why I think some are getting despondent is because a lot has been happening already in these first few months, yet polls are only moving ever so slightly in one way, or noticeably in the other.

It seems like it's going to take something significant in Biden's favor, or significant against Trump to move the polls to where many of us want them to be.

This assumes polls this year are even worth trusting, which I am still somewhat skeptical of.

My prediction is that you will see a conviction of Trump happen around the summer, and another right around the debates, which will cripple his campaign.

As it stands right now, meaning, were the election to be held this week, I think Trump would pull off a narrow victory like Clinton in 1992 in terms of magnitude in terms of the popular vote, and like 2016 in terms of the electoral vote.

But, I do think he will be convicted on one or more charges and be in the process of appeal come debate time, and I think Biden's team will hammer at his status as a convicted felon throughout the fall and during the debates rather than truly debate anything of substance - and I think using that, Biden will narrowly win.

A conviction might happen, but only with the New York trial, and it remains to be seen if Americans will care or if Trump will weasel his way out of the negative perceptions of it. That might be bring too pessimistic though, as polls even now suggest Trump would lose support and Biden would gain if a conviction occurs. Can we trust them to remain that way? I don't know.

The Georgia trial starts in the summer and will probably not conclude until next year, if it's allowed to proceed.

Both Jack Smith trials might as well be as good as delayed in perpetuity.

So, we're left with the New York trial which does possibly have the highest potential of Trump getting acquitted or a hung jury/mistrial.

I do think a conviction will dampen his polling at least. Trump's appeal to many of his followers was based around his perception or his assertation that he was a "winner." There's nothing victorious about a criminal conviction. And I actually think, despite many of them feeling his trials are show trials, that a part of them will be hesitant to supported a convicted felon.

There is something in the American psyche that immediately looks down upon criminals. I feel like a conviction might wake a few supporters up I also can't think many outside of the hardcore cultists are going to see him as a martyr-like figure.

I don't know if it would be enough to change the election's outcome, but I do think if he's convicted you'll begin to see Biden consistently leading in polls.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I’d be more concerned by Biden’s pathetic Job Approvals. He can’t win the election with his current JA.

Much as the MAGATs would prefer it to be otherwise, the vote in November is not asking the question: "Do you approve of the job President Biden is doing?"

Instead, the question on the ballot will be:
"Would you rather have Joe Biden or Donald Trump as President?"
(With a side helping of: "Or would you rather throw your vote away?")

Now, I see plenty to criticize in a political system that reduces things to that question... but that still is the question I and everyone else will get to answer, and those criticisms do not make "Donald Trump" a good or decent answer under any circumstances. Donald's only voters will be the wicked and the foolish - and if there are enough of those to elect him President again then America is doomed anyway.

[BlueSwan]

I say no, and always have, since Americans have short-term memories and nothing ever seems to matter unless it happens in the last few weeks. Look at 2016. Trump was done in early October, post-pussygate, then a few weeks later Comey opens his big mouth and the campaign ends with Clinton's emails in the spotlight in the home-stretch.

Why I think some are getting despondent is because a lot has been happening already in these first few months, yet polls are only moving ever so slightly in one way, or noticeably in the other.

It seems like it's going to take something significant in Biden's favor, or significant against Trump to move the polls to where many of us want them to be.

This assumes polls this year are even worth trusting, which I am still somewhat skeptical of.

My prediction is that you will see a conviction of Trump happen around the summer, and another right around the debates, which will cripple his campaign.

As it stands right now, meaning, were the election to be held this week, I think Trump would pull off a narrow victory like Clinton in 1992 in terms of magnitude in terms of the popular vote, and like 2016 in terms of the electoral vote.

But, I do think he will be convicted on one or more charges and be in the process of appeal come debate time, and I think Biden's team will hammer at his status as a convicted felon throughout the fall and during the debates rather than truly debate anything of substance - and I think using that, Biden will narrowly win.

A conviction might happen, but only with the New York trial, and it remains to be seen if Americans will care or if Trump will weasel his way out of the negative perceptions of it. That might be bring too pessimistic though, as polls even now suggest Trump would lose support and Biden would gain if a conviction occurs. Can we trust them to remain that way? I don't know.

The Georgia trial starts in the summer and will probably not conclude until next year, if it's allowed to proceed.

Both Jack Smith trials might as well be as good as delayed in perpetuity.

So, we're left with the New York trial which does possibly have the highest potential of Trump getting acquitted or a hung jury/mistrial.

I do think a conviction will dampen his polling at least. Trump's appeal to many of his followers was based around his perception or his assertation that he was a "winner." There's nothing victorious about a criminal conviction. And I actually think, despite many of them feeling his trials are show trials, that a part of them will be hesitant to supported a convicted felon.

There is something in the American psyche that immediately looks down upon criminals. I feel like a conviction might wake a few supporters up I also can't think many outside of the hardcore cultists are going to see him as a martyr-like figure.

I don't know if it would be enough to change the election's outcome, but I do think if he's convicted you'll begin to see Biden consistently leading in polls.

Well, for the sake of western civilization, I hope you are right, but I really doubt it.

[GoTfan]

It's a pure cope line. Trump has this pretty clearly.

[Steve from Lambeth]

These are polls not votes we still have to VOTE ON EDAY

[Bush did 311]

We won't know until we know. Once we do, the answer will seem obvious.

You can read the tea leaves and find arguments for anything happening from a Biden landslide to a Trump landslide, and everything in between. Things will resolve more in the summer, and further still after the conventions.

[Dan the Roman]

They matter but matter a lot less. Make no mistake. The Biden campaign would prefer a world where all the polls showed them up 2-5% and leading all the swing states rather than the reverse. They might still think they were flawed, but they would not be reliant on every major data point being flawed or misleading for a path to victory.

It's also risky relying on the trials. The percentage in polls who say they are witchhunts is running about 10% higher than the number who felt rhe 2020 election was stolen(generally 43-45% v 32%-35%) and that's both likely Trump's floor, and an indication that the sentiment that 2024 was stolen will be far less divisive and more general than post-,2020 stuff ever was because it is reaching a broader audience.

A conviction probably hurts here only insofar as Trump does worse the more he is in the news, and better the more Biden is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls are flawed like in 22 they are going by Approval ratings and just going by that makes them flawed because Biden has a better Approval in blue states than red states

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Nothing has changed since Fall of 2023.

Bidens Approvals are in the gutter, and no signs of improvement.

Trump leading nationally, consistently.

Trump leading overwhelmingly in Sunbelt.

Trump with steady leads in Rustbelt.

But yeah, the polls are garbage. 🙄

[OSR stands with Israel]

I say no, and always have, since Americans have short-term memories and nothing ever seems to matter unless it happens in the last few weeks. Look at 2016. Trump was done in early October, post-pussygate, then a few weeks later Comey opens his big mouth and the campaign ends with Clinton's emails in the spotlight in the home-stretch.

Why I think some are getting despondent is because a lot has been happening already in these first few months, yet polls are only moving ever so slightly in one way, or noticeably in the other.

It seems like it's going to take something significant in Biden's favor, or significant against Trump to move the polls to where many of us want them to be.

This assumes polls this year are even worth trusting, which I am still somewhat skeptical of.

My prediction is that you will see a conviction of Trump happen around the summer, and another right around the debates, which will cripple his campaign.

As it stands right now, meaning, were the election to be held this week, I think Trump would pull off a narrow victory like Clinton in 1992 in terms of magnitude in terms of the popular vote, and like 2016 in terms of the electoral vote.

But, I do think he will be convicted on one or more charges and be in the process of appeal come debate time, and I think Biden's team will hammer at his status as a convicted felon throughout the fall and during the debates rather than truly debate anything of substance - and I think using that, Biden will narrowly win.

If Trump wins by Clinton 1992 margins in the PV , then he’s probably winning between 340-350 EV. A 2016 margin in the EV suggests a super close PV margin

[Vice President Christian Man]

By October we usually have a clear idea of who the winner is going to be (1980 when Carter was improving in the polls and 2016 was an outlier for obvious reasons). But I think that the polls begin to matter after the conventions when the median voter starts paying attention. But of course if we're either at war or if the economy is particularly good/bad then they're more likely to make up their mind earlier.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nothing has changed since Fall of 2023.

Bidens Approvals are in the gutter, and no signs of improvement.

Trump leading nationally, consistently.

Trump leading overwhelmingly in Sunbelt.

Trump with steady leads in Rustbelt.

But yeah, the polls are garbage. 🙄

You keep saying this Biden has higher Approval in blue states than red states

[TheTide]

Remember that polls are snapshots in time and are not meant to be predictive of the final result, especially those that are taken very early (as Presidents Thomas Dewey and Michael Dukakis can attest). Campaigns can use polls as reference points in deciding how/where to invest political resources, but they should not be interpreted to mean "Candidate X is all but certain to win/lose" unless the margin is well outside the margin of error.

A counterpoint to this is that the electorate is clearly a lot less fluid and open-minded than it used to be. Dewey and Dukakis had big leads a matter of months before the election. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were never heading for a 40+ state landslide at the equivalent points.

Having said that, this also means that it's pretty likely that a given election will remain at the very least competitive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Polls are not hugely significant this far advance of the election, but neither are they meaningless.  They have a mild predictive value at this point, which will generally increase as we get closer to November.  

I like to think of it with a football analogy: Biden is down something like a touchdown in the second quarter.  If the game ended now, he would lose.  But the lead is not insuperable, and there's plenty of time for the trailing team to get hot and/or the leading team to commit some mistakes and blow it.

[ProudModerate2]

September and October are the months to watch. (Put more emphasis/weight on polling.)

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Polls are not hugely significant this far advance of the election, but neither are they meaningless.  They have a mild predictive value at this point, which will generally increase as we get closer to November.  

I like to think of it with a football analogy: Biden is down something like a touchdown in the second quarter.  If the game ended now, he would lose.  But the lead is not insuperable, and there's plenty of time for the trailing team to get hot and/or the leading team to commit some mistakes and blow it.

Biden needs a Hail Mary at this point.

At no point has Biden shown he can garner support. He’s been down and out since Afghanistan 2021.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

You're assuming we will have debates. I doubt we do. Trump isn't going to agree to debate the usual way and Biden won't agree to debate on Fox News or whatever friendly media outlet Trump will want.