2017 French Presidential Election

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A French Town Known for Picking Presidents Sees Big Upset Ahead
The foie gras town of Donzy is almost always right in picking a winner, and this year it sees Fillon beating Le Pen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-09/a-french-town-known-for-picking-presidents-sees-big-upset-ahead

There are 36,000 communes in France, so there are probably others that have been good bellwethers for the last few elections, but have different results for the current election.

[parochial boy]

I would have sworn that Chirac beat Jospin in 1995

Also, given the peculiar dynamics of this election, I don't think historical bellweathers are going to be very useful. The Nièvre is a traditionally left wing department, but who knows how its vote is going to split between Macron (a spectacularly bad fit for and ageing and rural area), Hamon and Mélenchon

[DL]

Hamon indicates that he would rather endorse Melenchon than Macron if he loses the first round

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/04/09/benoit-hamon-appellera-a-voter-jean-luc-melenchon-s-il-perd-au-premier-tour_5108409_4854003.html

I guess that could mean something if the second round ends up being a run off between Mélenchon and Macron, but I think the odds of that are still about one in a thousand

[brucejoel99]

I would have sworn that Chirac beat Jospin in 1995

Also, given the peculiar dynamics of this election, I don't think historical bellweathers are going to be very useful. The Nièvre is a traditionally left wing department, but who knows how its vote is going to split between Macron (a spectacularly bad fit for and ageing and rural area), Hamon and Mélenchon

Yeah, he very much did lol... they likely just switched the names up (assuming the point of the article still stands & that Donzy is indeed the bellweather it's claimed to be)

[peterthlee]

Hamon indicates that he would rather endorse Melenchon than Macron if he loses the first round

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/04/09/benoit-hamon-appellera-a-voter-jean-luc-melenchon-s-il-perd-au-premier-tour_5108409_4854003.html

The question is whether Melenchon could advance into the runoff.

[peterthlee]

Final prediction
First Round
Macron 28 (+5) ✓
Le Pen 23 ✓
Melenchon 19 X
Fillon 17 X
Hamon 11 X
Minor candidates 2 X

Second Round
Safe EM-Solid
Macron 68-32

How do you guys think?

[windjammer]

Final prediction
First Round
Macron 28 (+5) ✓
Le Pen 23 ✓
Melenchon 19 X
Fillon 17 X
Hamon 11 X
Minor candidates 2 X

Second Round
Safe EM-Solid
Macron 68-32

How do you guys think?

Totally wrong

[Former President tack50]

A French Town Known for Picking Presidents Sees Big Upset Ahead
The foie gras town of Donzy is almost always right in picking a winner, and this year it sees Fillon beating Le Pen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-09/a-french-town-known-for-picking-presidents-sees-big-upset-ahead

There are 36,000 communes in France, so there are probably others that have been good bellwethers for the last few elections, but have different results for the current election.

Yeah, just in Spain alone we have 81 municipalities that qualify (the largest being Ponferrada, a Galician town with 67 000 people). Interestingly there is a "state" that does always predict the election (Aragon, which is often called Spain's Ohio for that reason)

[Former President tack50]

Melenchon has an online video game now: http://fiscalkombat.fr/

If he gets elected I hope his policies are better than his videogames XD

[Classic Conservative]

I have a question for our French posters, if Filion doesn't make it into the second round who will practicing Catholics vote for?

[LabourJersey]

A French Town Known for Picking Presidents Sees Big Upset Ahead
The foie gras town of Donzy is almost always right in picking a winner, and this year it sees Fillon beating Le Pen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-09/a-french-town-known-for-picking-presidents-sees-big-upset-ahead

I really dislike the idea that "bellwether towns" have some genuine predictive power. Its the political equivalent of flipping a coin six times and getting heads for all six.

I believe there was a long piece on Politico about some Indiana town that went for each presidential winner since 1952, and it went for Trump by double digits. Sure that might be technically accurate but that is a difference of 13 percentage points compared to the rest of America Politics change, swing voters change, etc.

[Tirnam]

Poll Kantar-Sofres for Le Figaro / LCI
First poll to show Mélenchon ahead of Fillon

Macron: 24% (-2 since March, 17)
Le Pen: 24% (-2)
Mélenchon: 18% (+6)
Fillon: 17% (=)
Hamon: 9% (-3)

Second round

Macron 61% - Le Pen 39%
Macron 66% - Fillon 34%
Macron 53% - Mélenchon 47%
Fillon 55% - Le Pen 45%
Mélenchon 57% - Le Pen 43%

[DL]

I guess the big question is what is Melenchon's "ceiling" for the first round. To actually get into the second round he would have to overtake LePen or Macron and get well into the 20s...Is that realistic or has he "maxxed out" at this point.

[Tirnam]

I think that polls seem to stabilize:
- Harris Interactive (March, 3-5): Macron 25%, Le Pen 24%, Fillon 18%, Mélenchon 17%
- Odoxa (March, 5): Macron 23.5%, Le Pen 23%, Fillon 18.5%, Mélenchon 18%
- Kantar-Sofres (March, 5-7) : Macron 24%, Le Pen 24%, Mélenchon 18%, Fillon: 17%

Just a few variations but basically similar results (or at least inside the margin of error)
We will see tomorrow if I'm wrong.

[Zuza]

Macron 53% - Mélenchon 47%

Surprisingly good result for Mélenchon. It looks like he gets the bulk of Le Pen voters in this scenario.

[mvd10]

Poll Kantar-Sofres for Le Figaro / LCI
First poll to show Mélenchon ahead of Fillon

Macron: 24% (-2 since March, 17)
Le Pen: 24% (-2)
Mélenchon: 18% (+6)
Fillon: 17% (=)
Hamon: 9% (-3)

Second round

Macron 61% - Le Pen 39%
Macron 66% - Fillon 34%
Macron 53% - Mélenchon 47%
Fillon 55% - Le Pen 45%
Mélenchon 57% - Le Pen 43%

I believe there was a poll that had Fillon at 15.5% and Mélenchon at 19% so it's not the first. But it's probably the first serious poll that has Mélenchon ahead because the other one probably was a junk poll.

Anyway, I just read that Sarkozy thinks he could be Macron's PM in a cohabitation government if the right wins a majority. He is even more delusional than Fillon lol.

http://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/presidentielle-2017-second-tour-resultat-macron-le-pen-sarkozy-7787966549

[TheSaint250]

I guess the big question is what is Melenchon's "ceiling" for the first round. To actually get into the second round he would have to overtake LePen or Macron and get well into the 20s...Is that realistic or has he "maxxed out" at this point.

Without Hamon dropping out, his ceiling is probably 19% or 20%. With Hamon dropping out, probably 24%(?)

On that note: another question, if Hamon did drop out, how many of his supporters would go to Melenchon?

[Tirnam]

Poll Kantar-Sofres for Le Figaro / LCI
First poll to show Mélenchon ahead of Fillon

Macron: 24% (-2 since March, 17)
Le Pen: 24% (-2)
Mélenchon: 18% (+6)
Fillon: 17% (=)
Hamon: 9% (-3)

Second round

Macron 61% - Le Pen 39%
Macron 66% - Fillon 34%
Macron 53% - Mélenchon 47%
Fillon 55% - Le Pen 45%
Mélenchon 57% - Le Pen 43%

I believe there was a poll that had Fillon at 15.5% and Mélenchon at 19% so it's not the first. But it's probably the first serious poll that has Mélenchon ahead because the other one probably was a junk poll.

It wasn't a poll done by a reliable pollster.

In the continuing series "The FN has changed but not so much" Le Pen said today that "France wasn't responsible for the Vel d'Hiv roundup" in which 13,152 jews were arrested by French police, on the order of French legal government in Vichy, in 1942 before being sent to Auschwitz.

[DL]

I guess the big question is what is Melenchon's "ceiling" for the first round. To actually get into the second round he would have to overtake LePen or Macron and get well into the 20s...Is that realistic or has he "maxxed out" at this point.

Without Hamon dropping out, his ceiling is probably 19% or 20%. With Hamon dropping out, probably 24%(?)

On that note: another question, if Hamon did drop out, how many of his supporters would go to Melenchon?

And there is no chance at all of Hamon dropping out. If he did I suspect his support would split between Macron and Melenchon and virtually none of this support would go to LePen or Fillon

[Shadows]

Melenchon was stupid to be the 1st major candidate to  withdraw from the 3rd debate, would have helped him get votes among a wider audience ! I think he realistically has to be within 2-3% of the Top 2 in the polls & then hope for a bigger turnout of his voters & expect Hamon voters to defect. Look there will be Hamon voters who wouldn't want to waste votes of a candidate who won't go into the Final 2 !

Can Melenchon touch or cross 20% in the next 8-9 days drawing from Macron/Le Pen voters as well, like he has been doing so far, with the Hamon+Melenchon vote increasing.

I think Le Pen will fall, Poutou did some damage to her among the working class voters she is targeting !

[parochial boy]

I would like to issue a warning about overreacting to post-debate bubbles. Remember Nick Clegg in 2010.

[Barnes]

I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up

[TheSaint250]

I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up

No she's not. She said she believed the French were not responsible for rounding up Jewish citizens for the Germans. That's not denial of the Holocaust. That's denial that France did anything to contribute to it.

As the article says, she was wrong, but what she said was nothing close to Holocaust denial.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up

No she's not. She said she believed the French were not responsible for rounding up Jewish citizens for the Germans. That's not denial of the Holocaust. That's denial that France did anything to contribute to it.

As the article says, she was wrong, but what she said was nothing close to Holocaust denial.

It's denial of a particular event that contributed to the Holocaust. We can discuss semantics as much as you want but this is still vile.

[TheSaint250]

I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up

No she's not. She said she believed the French were not responsible for rounding up Jewish citizens for the Germans. That's not denial of the Holocaust. That's denial that France did anything to contribute to it.

As the article says, she was wrong, but what she said was nothing close to Holocaust denial.

It's denial of a particular event that contributed to the Holocaust. We can discuss semantics as much as you want but this is still vile.

Yes, as I said, she's wrong on this.  I'm just saying it's not blatant Holocaust denial like what was being implied.