2017 French Presidential Election

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am afraid of le pen - melenchon.

france must not go into isolation....

[Shadows]

For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years.

Poll BVA

Macron: 23% (-2)
Le Pen: 23% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (+4)
Hamon: 8.5% (-3)

Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39%

Sample Size 1421 & date is 5-7th April. Macron-Le Pen together have gone down to 46-47% from 50-52% & Melenchon-Hamon together have changed from 25% to 27.5% odd. The left is drawing more, even though Hamon is falling.

Melenchon has drawn an average of 4% after each debate. My french friend told there would be something like another debate/forum before the run-off. Because if there is one, then Melenchon could well cross 20% & be a shade behind the Front 2 as he's a fantastic orator.

If Melenchon is within 1-2% points, a share of Hamon voters will re-consider wasting their votes. And turnout will be the key too, Melenchon's website has the highest hits & he has energized his base !

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I figured that Macron's polling surge would prove to be temporary as he really is a paper tiger candidate but I never figured that a communist dinosaur would be the cause of this. To be fair, Melenchon appears to be drawing votes from all directions (?).  This election is bizarre.

Anyways, it's not terribly shocking that polling is very volatile in a year where both the PS and the LR are in a state of disarray. This has meant that both Le Pen and Macron have coalitions that are fairly diffuse; Le Pen has a solid core of supporters that's rather large but a non-negligible minority are from "neither left nor right" types who weren't FN supporters until recently. It goes without saying that Macron's coalition is very unstable. There's plenty of small-s socialists who were prepared to vote for him and loads of right-wingers who were prepared to do so.

I'm not sure why I posted this honestly. My point is that Melenchon probably has room to grow from Le Pen, Hamon and Macron. Time to hit the panic button if you're a neo-liberal. Hit the blunt if you're a true comrade and lover of communism.

[2952-0-0]

What if the runoff is Melenchon/Macron? Any polls?

[Tirnam]

The dynamics of the race are ... interesting to say the least. You may rejoice if you support Mélenchon, worry if you support Macron.

But at his hour Mélenchon is not near to top Macron for the second round. Maybe it would change in a week, maybe not.

For example yesterday Macron had a 2 hours prime-time interview, he attracted a record TV rating for the show, according to a flash poll he convinced 47% of the people (before him the best score was for Le Pen at 41%), 51% see him as a good president (before him the best score was 38% for Le Pen), maybe this show will have an impact in the next days in the dynamics for Macron (or not).

[America Needs R'hllor]

If it's Melenchon vs Le Pen, I really don't know who would I support. Melenchon might be slightly better.

[JA]

For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years.

Poll BVA

Macron: 23% (-2)
Le Pen: 23% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (+4)
Hamon: 8.5% (-3)

Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39%

YES! It's time for Hamon to dropout and endorse Mélenchon like I said almost a month ago. He is the only chance the French left has at winning the Presidency.

[Zinneke]

For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years.

Poll BVA

Macron: 23% (-2)
Le Pen: 23% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (+4)
Hamon: 8.5% (-3)

Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39%

YES! It's time for Hamon to dropout and endorse Mélenchon like I said almost a month ago. He is the only chance the French left has at winning the Presidency.

Méluche's campaign is a walking contradiction

• I want to abolish presidential monarchism...but I'm going to do it all by myself, screw the rest of you, I've been here longer! (he hasn't, he was in the PS for longer, where he voted for the Maastricht Treaty)
• AM I going to leave the euro...yes...no!
• I'm not going to compromise with the Right...but I'll create a Constitutional Assembly that represents the French people to draft the 6th Republic
• I'm a hardcore ecologist...look at me make a healthy vegan salad while I add some prawns to it (I stole this from Michel Onfray)
• "I´m gonna favour the periphery over the centre more with the 'maritime economy'...but let´s not forget the time I called the Bonnet Rouge movement reactionary

He'd turn out just like Tsipras.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i would still vote melenchon over russian puppet nr1 but.....not feeling good about france.

[parochial boy]

The way things are going, don't be too surprised if the run off ends up Lassalle - Asselineau

[jaichind]

For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years.

Poll BVA

Macron: 23% (-2)
Le Pen: 23% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (+4)
Hamon: 8.5% (-3)

Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39%

YES! It's time for Hamon to dropout and endorse Mélenchon like I said almost a month ago. He is the only chance the French left has at winning the Presidency.

And the only chance for Le Pen to win in the second round.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years.

Poll BVA

Macron: 23% (-2)
Le Pen: 23% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (+4)
Hamon: 8.5% (-3)

Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39%

YES! It's time for Hamon to dropout and endorse Mélenchon like I said almost a month ago. He is the only chance the French left has at winning the Presidency.

And the only chance for Le Pen to win in the second round.

That would be Fillon.

[SunSt0rm]

Have there been any serious polls on Melenchon vs Le Pen? I see on wikipedis there is one with 68%-32% but I cant really believe he would do better than Macron would

[Barnes]

Remember that the French far-left and right look at any attempt to further electability as a "betrayal of values," etc.

[parochial boy]

In case anyone is wondering about how different demographics are lining up to vote. IFOP has a pretty cool tracker that you can use to see how their polls have evolved, including demographic breakdowns, party identity, evolutions of "certainty to vote" and all that.

click here

[mvd10]

Mélenchon is the one candidate that would make me support Le Pen. I'd take Hamon over Le Pen though. Fillon also seems to have a slight bump in the last couple of polls btw.

[DavidB.]

Thanks, parochial boy, very interesting! According to ifop turnout would only be 65%, and that percentage is relatively stable. Weird. In 2012, turnout in the first round was 79%.

[Barnes]

According to ifop turnout would only be 65%, and that percentage is relatively stable. Weird. In 2012, turnout in the first round was 79%.

Not really. The electorate is (once again) thoroughly turned off by the major parties as I'd say as many who are supporting the alternatives are just abstaining. Of course, this could just be an effect of polling as well--begrudgingly going to vote but refusing to play any other part in the election.

[windjammer]

Thanks, parochial boy, very interesting! According to ifop turnout would only be 65%, and that percentage is relatively stable. Weird. In 2012, turnout in the first round was 79%.

By the way, 5 years ago, we expected as well a low turnout, in the end it was fine. I think turnout will go down, but 65% is really to low to be considered as a scenario.

[Barnes]

Thanks, parochial boy, very interesting! According to ifop turnout would only be 65%, and that percentage is relatively stable. Weird. In 2012, turnout in the first round was 79%.

By the way, 5 years ago, we expected as well a low turnout, in the end it was fine. I think turnout will go down, but 65% is really to low to be considered as a scenario.

I would think about 70, but who knows. I think a lot of people would rather say they're not interested.

[Barnes]

Thanks, parochial boy, very interesting! According to ifop turnout would only be 65%, and that percentage is relatively stable. Weird. In 2012, turnout in the first round was 79%.

By the way, 5 years ago, we expected as well a low turnout, in the end it was fine. I think turnout will go down, but 65% is really to low to be considered as a scenario.

I would think about 70, but who knows. I think a lot of people would rather say they're not interested.

Which would still be better than the US in about any year, but that's not much of a bar to set.

[Kringla Heimsins]

Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum.
He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties.

[Kringla Heimsins]

Sorry to double post, but Jean Lassalle just did this:



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YH476oLSYj8

I'm... amazed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The way things are going, don't be too surprised if the run off ends up Lassalle - Asselineau

I'd sign for that!

The good thing about my candidate polling dead fifth is that I'm much less invested in what happens to the other four. Basically as long as Fillon is out of the runoff, I'll shrug it off.

[Shadows]

Leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose poll scores are rising, set the ball rolling by suggesting he would not take part in a live debate so close to the first round. He had already complained in March about TV channels’ scheduling of debates, arguing that their dates clashed with his own campaign planning. Mélenchon, a firebrand who appeared less radical onstage than far-left candidates Nathalie Arthaud and Philippe Poutou, gets more mileage out of rallies and town-hall style Youtube broadcasts.

Instead of a debate France 2 plans to conduct 10-minute interviews on the same date with each of the contestants. If one of them refuses, there will be no political show on April 20.

http://www.politico.eu/article/france-2-tv-cancels-2nd-presidential-debate/