The absentee/early vote thread

[Dr. Arch]

More on NC and the AA vote: NAACP sues the state for voter registration purge right before the election.

"The North Carolina NAACP has filed a federal lawsuit to stop county election boards in the state from canceling voter registrations ― in what the group argues is an effort by the state Republican Party to suppress the black vote.

Thousands of voter registrations have already been canceled by election boards in Beaufort, Moore and Cumberland counties because a mailing to the voters’ addresses was returned as undeliverable."

Link: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/north-carolina-naacp-voter-suppression_us_5817634fe4b064e1b4b385df

[fldemfunds]

Sig bet. Hrc wins fl by 5 or more

[bilaps]

Clinton outperforming Obama with Latinos in week-by-week comparison of Latino prez vote 2012 v 2016. Charts shows gap (%Dem - %Rep)


Interesting

Was it Skill and Chance who predicted this? Whatever small loss there might be with the AA vote will be compensated to greater lengths by Hispanic votes.

LOL. You see that comparison but you are missing that is much easier for white turnout which is surpassing 2012 to compensate for hispanic turnout surge?

[Maxwell]

The problem for Trump, of course, is that few if any polls show Trump doing anything other than way worse than Romney among whites.

[bilaps]

The problem for Trump, of course, is that few if any polls show Trump doing anything other than way worse than Romney among whites.

yeah right. so he is down with whites, doesn't get any from aa and hispanics, hispanic turnout is up, and he is up 4 points in upshot based on what please tell me?

[dspNY]

The problem for Trump, of course, is that few if any polls show Trump doing anything other than way worse than Romney among whites.

yeah right. so he is down with whites, doesn't get any from aa and hispanics, hispanic turnout is up, and he is up 4 points in upshot based on what please tell me?

Trump is down 7 in both NC and PA according to upshot. The state you're referencing is Florida

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale

"First, Hispanics now make up almost 13.5% of FL registered voters who have voted.  And it has been fractionally growing every day."

"In fact 50% of the FL Hispanic Democrats and 55% of Hispanic NPAs voted to date have never voted, or only in 1 of last 3 elections"

[Maxwell]

The problem for Trump, of course, is that few if any polls show Trump doing anything other than way worse than Romney among whites.

yeah right. so he is down with whites, doesn't get any from aa and hispanics, hispanic turnout is up, and he is up 4 points in upshot based on what please tell me?

I was talking nationally - and I honestly don't know what's going on with upshot and Florida.

[Speed of Sound]

Sig bet. Hrc wins fl by 5 or more

I think she'll take FL, but you're out of your mind if you think it'll be by 5. Neither the polls nor even a generous reading of the early vote sees that coming.

[Speed of Sound]

FWIW, Cohn and Schale are both impressed with the Hispanic turnout at this point in FL:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793176820254408704

[BoAtlantis]

[IceSpear]

Why is Pennsylvania's turnout so much lower than other swing states?

We don't have early voting. We have absentee voting that requires an excuse.

[Ozymandias]

This is a nice image from @electionsmith showing to what extent the early 2016 vote in Florida from each party is just cannibalizing the 2012 Election Day vote:



Democrats are doing slightly better than Republicans (compare green boxes) but real key is number of first time non-affiliated NPA voters (purple).

btw, how does "insert image" work? I tried to drag it from my desktop but no luck...

EDIT: Ah, of course, thanks HillOfANight

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Voting TRUMP/McGinty is a very hipster/Atlas position, so I'm going to guess not really very many.

How Toomey talked about Trump is disdainful, and more importantly I disagree with him on an issue I feel very strongly. I hope he loses his seat.

Trump has never talked about anyone disdainfully.

[HillOfANight]

This is a nice image from @electionsmith showing to what extent the early 2016 vote in Florida from each party is just cannibalizing the 2012 Election Day vote:


Democrats are doing slightly better than Republicans (compare green boxes) but real key is number of first time non-affiliated NPA voters (purple).

btw, how does "insert image" work? I tried to drag it from my desktop but no luck...

Highlight the URL and click the IMG button, or click IMG and paste the URL inside.

[HillOfANight]

In 1 week, Republicans have taken the lead in Arizona, narrowed the gap in Colorado/Iowa/Michigan/Ohio, cemented their lead in Georgia. Caveat that this data is very confusing since they don't compare to past years.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Interesting finding in Ohio:

While early turnout is down in Franklin, Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Montgomery counties, turnout is up in the actual cities of Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Dayton. Cincinnati and Columbus have cleared their 2012 totals, even though there's one week less of early voting this year.

Hopefully a sign that the ground game in the cities is running as smoothly as ever. (this is hardly a guarantee of that, however).

Suburban Republicans staying home?

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballot stats, 10/31

Ballots requested:

DEM: 248,314
GOP: 198,459
IND: 132,883
Other: 1,905

Ballots cast:

DEM: 198,736
GOP: 155,425
IND: 97,503
Other: 1,380

Dems had a very good weekend. They expanded their ballot request lead to virtually 50K and now lead in ballots cast by 43.5K. On Friday, Dems led by 46.5K in ballot requests and 40.5K in ballots cast

[Devout Centrist]

Trump was overestimated during the caucus, he's going to lose Iowa come November 8th.

[ApatheticAustrian]

ok, dems also bled in registration levels but still...that IA is competetive at this point.....

[Crumpets]

Iowa absentee ballot stats, 10/31

Ballots requested:

DEM: 248,314
GOP: 198,459
IND: 132,883
Other: 1,905

Ballots cast:

DEM: 198,736
GOP: 155,425
IND: 97,503
Other: 1,380

Dems had a very good weekend. They expanded their ballot request lead to virtually 50K and now lead in ballots cast by 43.5K. On Friday, Dems led by 46.5K in ballot requests and 40.5K in ballots cast

Is there some secret cohort of black churches in Iowa that only appear for souls to the polls and then disappear come census time?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

We've more or less passed the 50k threshold. Great news.

[swf541]

We've more or less passed the 50k threshold. Great news.

Great News

[dspNY]

We've more or less passed the 50k threshold. Great news.

We need it in ballots cast. Obama had an advantage of 82K in ballot requests and 68.4K in ballots cast. So we're still a little behind but that was a good move in the positive direction. Still lots of work to do. I'd like to see us at +65K in ballot requests and +55K in ballots cast to feel even more confident

[HillOfANight]

Obama also never trailed Romney in the polls in Iowa. So she needs to do more than match Obama's early vote performance.