I don't see how it's a toss up when all the Democrats need are the Kerry states + VA, NM, NV.
New Mexico and Nevada are practically freebies at this point. That just leaves Virginia, which is probably one of the most obvious trending states in the country. Even if the national vote shifts 3% toward the GOP from 2012, Virginia would still be winnable.
It's just not a workable map for the Republicans. They NEEEEEED a realignment.
Again youre assuming that states are some how fixed in their voting patterns independent of the national popular vote.
The realignment will come when one of three things happens
1. Dems preside over a recession
2. Dems preside over a foreign policy debacle
3. Demographics result in more whites voting GOP and states flipping. Older white states like MI, PA, WI, IA become solid GOP and AZ, GA, NC become Dem.
As whites decline as a % of the population, white will give a larger and larger % to the GOP. In fact it is already happening albeit slowly. By 2030-2040, I could see the GOP getting 70-75% of the white vote.
That's simply not happening.
