CO, Ras: Romney leads by 2

[5280]

All I can say is this is good news.

[5280]

Clinton lost Colorado his second time around, despite winning by a larger margin nationwide. It also swing against Bush in 2004. Maybe Colorado is just hostile to incumbents?

Probably, I also think CO is a bellwether state.  Not sure how Clinton lost CO in 1996, Bob Dole wasn't the most exciting candidate, but he was from Kansas.

[5280]

Does anyone know what % of the white vote each candidate got in this poll?

I think states like CO are trending Dem in the long term (very high education rate, growing latino population) but the idea of CO being 1% more GOP than the nation isnt far fetched as it was only like 1-2% more Dem than Obama's national margin in 2008. McCain also put all his $$ into PA and away from CO, NV the final weeks. That being said, Obama's been slightly above his national numbers in PPP here and both him and Bennet overperformed polls in 2008, 2010 by about 4 points. In BOTH, the dems outperformed Rasmussen by 5. PPP has actually been the best pollster there.

2008 final polls: PPP 54-44 Obama, Rasmussen 51-47 Obama, result- Obama 54-45
2010 final polls: PPP Buck 49-48,  Rasmussen Buck 50-46, result 48-47 Bennet

Those were joke candidates and were harped for their social issues.  Romney is a different ball game.  Enthusiasm for the GOP will be higher than 2010.

[5280]

Colorado has a lot of wealthy independents so Romney should be a good fit for Colorado compared to say, Ohio. Still, Rasmussen was off by 5-6 points in Colorado in both 2008 AND 2010 so it's proabably accurate to say Obama is actually up 3-4

You can only twist the numbers to your favor, much less, polish a turd to make it pretty.  It's still a turd.