NH-Rasmussen: Obama leads by 11%

[Lunar]

If any states could have been argued to experience an overt Bradley effect in the 2008 primaries, it would be New Hampshire (and then CA, the state where the effect got its name).  I find it amusing that when New Hampshire showed the McCain beating Obama people were arguing that Obama's going to do worse than Kerry (relative to national numbers) because of MA's proximity in 2004.  Now, in this thread it seems that Obama is the perfect candidate to do well in New Hampshire.  Of course, some of it was due to Clinton's name recognition advantage that was far more apparent in primaries and earlier in the election cycle, but it is something to keep in the back of your mind.

I think McCain is still competitive in the state, he is more closely identified with New Hampshire than pretty much any other state outside of Arizona (I've read more than one article identifying him as the "third senator from New Hampshire") and he seems to really play pretty well there. His approval ratings are still pretty high and outside of his war record, he seems like he's a good fit for New Hampshire in most respects.

I expect the state will swing around some more and settle about where it did in 2004 but we'll see.  Rasmussen has really tended to be more Republican than other pollsters so far in general polls, making this one particularly interesting.