2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[MaxQue]

Does anyone want to make a riding map of Bonaventure for my blog? Or give me the links to the data/maps so I can?

When is the by-election, again?

[lilTommy]

Does anyone want to make a riding map of Bonaventure for my blog? Or give me the links to the data/maps so I can?

When is the by-election, again?

looks like december 5th

[MaxQue]

Does anyone want to make a riding map of Bonaventure for my blog? Or give me the links to the data/maps so I can?

When is the by-election, again?

looks like december 5th

Should be able to do it, if Earl is willing to wait two weeks.
Anybody who is able to do it earlier should feel free to do it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think I'll bother doing one for the Sask Party; we have a de facto one anyway.

So, yeah. There is a rural/urban dimension to voting patterns in Saskatchewan, but (as you can see quite clearly from this map) it's a little more complicated than is frequently assumed.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does anyone want to make a riding map of Bonaventure for my blog? Or give me the links to the data/maps so I can?

When is the by-election, again?

looks like december 5th

Should be able to do it, if Earl is willing to wait two weeks.
Anybody who is able to do it earlier should feel free to do it.

That's Ok. I gotta focus on the BC municipals. (maybe I should start a thread)

Looking forward to a SK Green map.

[minionofmidas]

There's a photo exhibition about Winnipeg's slummy Native hoods showing at the MMK in Frankfurt. I think I'll go.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The weak NDP area of SK is basically this map.



All the plains states have this issue. As you move west, even long before the mountains start, the fertile wheat-growing territory transitions into a sort of dry ranching upland that is very sparsely populated and even more ultra-conservative. See also the larger size of the provincial ridings in the southwest; there's practically no-one there.

(Clearly this is my month for environmental causes of voting patterns).

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontario results analysis, finally: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/11/ontario-2011-election-results-analysis.html

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The weak NDP area of SK is basically this map.



All the plains states have this issue. As you move west, even long before the mountains start, the fertile wheat-growing territory transitions into a sort of dry ranching upland that is very sparsely populated and even more ultra-conservative. See also the larger size of the provincial ridings in the southwest; there's practically no-one there.

(Clearly this is my month for environmental causes of voting patterns).

OMG. I've known about this bad soil stuff forever, and, I've known the general voting patterns forever too, but I've never thought they were related!!!

I'm going to see if this works anywhere else.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The weak NDP area of SK is basically this map.



All the plains states have this issue. As you move west, even long before the mountains start, the fertile wheat-growing territory transitions into a sort of dry ranching upland that is very sparsely populated and even more ultra-conservative. See also the larger size of the provincial ridings in the southwest; there's practically no-one there.

(Clearly this is my month for environmental causes of voting patterns).

Good stuff. There are a few exceptions, but the general pattern holds very well.

[Smid]

Did up a blank map of Alberta, taking into account the new boundaries:

Blank Alberta Provincial Election Map - 2010 Redistribution




Obviously, there is a bigger version in the gallery.

According to Wikipedia, the election will have to be in the next 18 months or so, and is likely to be sometime next year.

Perhaps Krago might be able to give an approximation of some notional results based on either the last provincial election, or the federal results?

[lilTommy]

Again, another nice map.

Calgary just looks like one giant mess to me... i digress

I think using the most recent polls: http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Alberta+Tory+popularity+rise+rivals+attack+short+sitting+legislature/5742670/story.html

(vs 2008)
PC: 51 (-1)
Wildrose: 19 (+13) (Second place in Calgary at 21%)
NDP: 14 (+6) (Second in Edmonton at 21%)
Lib: 13 (-13)

with the federal results would be best to see which ridings go which way... Wildrose will be the hard one since in 08 they lost their only seat. All the movement is within the opposition.

[RogueBeaver]

I think Alberta won't go rosy for another 2 cycles, unfortunately. IMO, the Alberta PCs deserve to be wiped off the electoral map like their Socred predecessors were. Crony corruptocratic CINOs so far as this Tory is concerned. At least since Klein's last term they've been all adjective and no noun.

[lilTommy]

I think Alberta won't go rosy for another 2 cycles, unfortunately. IMO, the Alberta PCs deserve to be wiped off the electoral map like their Socred predecessors were. Crony corruptocratic CINOs so far as this Tory is concerned. At least since Klein's last term they've been all adjective and no noun.

I agree, they deserve to be trounced, just like the BCLibs, i am just counting the days till they die...
Even with 51% i see the tories losing seats esp. to Wildrose in Calgary and Rural Alberta and the NDP in Edmonton. Edmonton is going to be exciting since you have 4 competative (ok relative) parties, with Wildrose eating away the right and the NDP gaining strength... the PC's have to hope the Liberals crash and burn to hold on to seats in Edmonton like Glenora, Manning, Calder, Beverly-Clareview... Liberals ridings like Riverview, Gold Bar, Centre are also ones that might be lost. Could the Liberals lose them all?

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting map. I see the Fort Mac riding is split.

[lilTommy]

Here's a link to the interim report... some difference between the finals and the interm propoals before people started to cry...

Grande Prairie was suppose to have a fuly urban riding and a fully rural one...
Ardrie was also mostly just the town only, much smaller than the end result...
Edmonton: The proposed E-North West, La Petrie and Glenora are the only ones that changed drastically... i think the NDPs Eggan (former MLA for Calder) was going for Glenora since that interim boundary heavily benefited him, until the final report came out and jumped back to Calder

http://daveberta.ca/2010/02/albertas-proposed-new-electoral-boundaries-interim-report/

Found these
Calgary

Edmonton

[Smid]

Again, another nice map.

Thanks! I'm mostly satisfied with it, but not overly impressed with the southern extension of Wetaskawin-Canmore, but it's not horrendous - the real problem is with the boundary... there's actually an "island" off to the side, which I've used some licence in connecting to the main trunk. I'm working on a post-redistribution Quebec one. I suspect it won't be finished until after Christmas, but it's coming along nicely. It has the same layout as the other Quebec map I uploaded the other week - full Quebec map, Montreal, Quebec City and Southern Quebec (starting in the top left and going around in a clockwise direction). I've finished the full Quebec map and have done a bit of work on the Southern Quebec inset.

Interesting map. I see the Fort Mac riding is split.

Yes, they split Fort Mac between two ridings. I was about to comment but pulled out the relevant pages of the final report and found out that what I was going to say was actually all about Grande Prairie, which is also divided between to larger ridings, as noted by Tommy:

Here's a link to the interim report... some difference between the finals and the interm propoals before people started to cry...

Grande Prairie was suppose to have a fuly urban riding and a fully rural one...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Even with 51% i see the tories losing seats esp. to Wildrose in Calgary and Rural Alberta and the NDP in Edmonton. Edmonton is going to be exciting since you have 4 competative (ok relative) parties, with Wildrose eating away the right and the NDP gaining strength... the PC's have to hope the Liberals crash and burn to hold on to seats in Edmonton like Glenora, Manning, Calder, Beverly-Clareview... Liberals ridings like Riverview, Gold Bar, Centre are also ones that might be lost. Could the Liberals lose them all?

I think there are retiring Liberal incumbents in Riverview and Gold Bar (judging from Wikipedia). With a general swing away from the Liberals and to the NDP, these retirements may make it more of a challenge for the Liberals to hang onto those seats. It seems the Liberal incumbent in Calgary Varsity is also retiring, which is probably also an important target for the NDP if they want a beach-head into Calgary (since they currently hold no seats there). Northeastern Calgary would probably also be a target, but the Liberal vote may be entrenched there and a little harder to pry out of their hands. I also read on that daveberta link you posted, Tommy, that the Liberal Member for Lethbridge East has crossed the floor to PC. Lethbridge is a university town, I believe, and the NDP also did very well down there federally. Does anyone know if their federal candidate is considering another run?

Thanks for uploading those Krago maps, too! He really has done some exceptional work! There are also those ones The506 has on his website, too, although they aren't city-wide (not a criticism). They're federal, so are obviously quite different to the ones you included.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One reason why they did (relatively) well there federally was because the Tories ran (bizarrely) a paper candidate in a rock solid seat. Though wasn't Leithbridge always one of the weaker areas for Reform/CA? in non-metropolitan Alberta?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

There are also a lot of mormons in the extreme southern tip of Alberta near Lethbridge, so who knows what the heck they do?

[adma]

One reason why they did (relatively) well there federally was because the Tories ran (bizarrely) a paper candidate in a rock solid seat. Though wasn't Leithbridge always one of the weaker areas for Reform/CA? in non-metropolitan Alberta?

If Lethbridge proper is weaker, it's by default of its being mini-metropolitanish in its own right.

[lilTommy]

I think there are retiring Liberal incumbents in Riverview and Gold Bar (judging from Wikipedia). With a general swing away from the Liberals and to the NDP, these retirements may make it more of a challenge for the Liberals to hang onto those seats. It seems the Liberal incumbent in Calgary Varsity is also retiring, which is probably also an important target for the NDP if they want a beach-head into Calgary (since they currently hold no seats there). Northeastern Calgary would probably also be a target, but the Liberal vote may be entrenched there and a little harder to pry out of their hands. I also read on that daveberta link you posted, Tommy, that the Liberal Member for Lethbridge East has crossed the floor to PC. Lethbridge is a university town, I believe, and the NDP also did very well down there federally. Does anyone know if their federal candidate is considering another run?

Thanks for uploading those Krago maps, too! He really has done some exceptional work! There are also those ones The506 has on his website, too, although they aren't city-wide (not a criticism). They're federal, so are obviously quite different to the ones you included.
[/quote]

Looks like no, the NDP hasn't nominated Mark Sandilands who was the federal candidate... in Lethebridge East (where Liberal who used to be PC is now PC again) the NDP nominated their 2008 candidate Tom Moffat... in LW, i think this is where the NDP is more excited (and won more polls in May) they nominated Shannon Phillips whos with the Federation on Labour.

Another Daverta note:
"The NDP have attracted a surprising group of seaworthy candidates including former MLA David Eggen in Edmonton-Calder (also now former MLA/past leader/Federal candidate Ray Martin in Edmonton-Glenora), Catholic School Trustee Cindy Olsen in Edmonton-Manning, AUPE Vice-President Sandra Azocar in Edmonton-Mill Woods, former five-term City Councillor Lorna Watkinson-Zimmer in Red Deer-South, and Shannon Phillips in Lethbridge-West."

[Hatman 🍁]

Sorry for the bump, but here's my Newfoundland analysis, only 6 weeks later

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/11/newfoundland-and-labrador-provincial.html

My next post will deal with the by-election. MaxQue, are you still planning on making a map?

[MaxQue]

Sorry for the bump, but here's my Newfoundland analysis, only 6 weeks later

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/11/newfoundland-and-labrador-provincial.html

My next post will deal with the by-election. MaxQue, are you still planning on making a map?

I totally had forgot about it. I'll do it tonight.

[Hatman 🍁]

merci!

[mileslunn]

Alberta should be interesting although even if the Tories have outlived their usefulness I just cannot see them losing.  The WRA is a little too right wing for urban Alberta, the Liberals are pretty much dead in the water and the NDP is generally too left wing for Alberta. 

Rural Alberta - Should be a battle on the right but I expect the Wild Rose Alliance to pick up some seats, although too early to tell how many.  Lethbridge could be interesting as vote splitting on the right could help the NDP or Liberals slip up the middle.  I suspect the PC + WRA vote in Lethbridge will still exceed 50%. 

Calgary - Largely PC, but maybe a few WRA seats depending on how well they do.  The NDP has never been strong here and the Liberals typically tend to do better when the Tory leader is from Edmonton, whereas Redford is from Calgary thus the results in Calgary will probably more like they were under Klein than Stelmach

Edmonton - The Liberals have taken a hit but should hold a few seats while the NDP has a real chance at gaining, especially with splitting on the right.  The Tories probably won't do as well due to the fact Redford is from Calgary much like Klein struggled in Edmonton, but Stelmach did well.  There is a strong Edmonton-Calgary rivalry in politics too, not just hockey and often whichever city the leader comes from, they do well in that one, while the other city they take a hit.