2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[lilTommy]

Liberals lost a candidate DURING the debate! ouch

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nlvotes2011/story/2011/09/28/nl-liberals-lose-candidate-328.html

I heard they had not filled their SJ's slate? the CBC had an articule but that was a couple days ago

I doubt they will win the Premiers seat, its happened but generally its not a common thing. Even if the party loses government premiers hold their seats (i know of Peterson only who lost his in 1990 in Ontario)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Actually the NDP vote is terrible. I really had to work the numbers to make the NDP win seats. We might see one of those dreaded FPTP elections where one party (the NDP) racks up a huge number of "close seconds"

[adma]

I doubt they will win the Premiers seat, its happened but generally its not a common thing. Even if the party loses government premiers hold their seats (i know of Peterson only who lost his in 1990 in Ontario)

Bourassa lost his seat in '76.  He *also* lost his seat in 1985, despite winning the general election (as did Don Getty in Alberta a few years later)

[MaxQue]

I doubt they will win the Premiers seat, its happened but generally its not a common thing. Even if the party loses government premiers hold their seats (i know of Peterson only who lost his in 1990 in Ontario)

Bourassa lost his seat in '76.  He *also* lost his seat in 1985, despite winning the general election (as did Don Getty in Alberta a few years later)

Well, for 1985, that is his fault. When he wanted to enter Assembly during his return, he ran in a by-election where a PQ MNA resigned, in the southern suburbs on Montreal. He won.

Obviously, he lost in the general election. That area is strongly Péquiste.

[mileslunn]

I doubt they will win the Premiers seat, its happened but generally its not a common thing. Even if the party loses government premiers hold their seats (i know of Peterson only who lost his in 1990 in Ontario)

Bourassa lost his seat in '76.  He *also* lost his seat in 1985, despite winning the general election (as did Don Getty in Alberta a few years later)

I believe Mackenzie King also lost his seat in one election he won if I am not mistaken.  I believe that is the only time a PM has lost his/her seat and won the election.

[DL]

Actually the NDP vote is terrible. I really had to work the numbers to make the NDP win seats. We might see one of those dreaded FPTP elections where one party (the NDP) racks up a huge number of "close seconds"

I assume you are referring to NL. In the absence of any regional breakdowns of party support in NL - we have absolutely no way of knowing how efficient or inefficient the NDP vote is in NL. Its is possible (though unlikely) that they get 25-30% in every single riding and get just 1 or 2 seats out of 48 and lose all the others by 15 to 20 point margins to the PCs. But in all likelihood te NL NDP vote will have its concentrations - probably in St. John's where the party won both federal seats. If the NDP vote is actually at 45% in St. John's and 15-20% elsewhere - the NDP could sweep the city and end up with a dozen seats. But in the absence of any actual regional polling data - all we can do is guess.

[DL]

Looks like the NDP will win in Manitoba. ahead 46-43 innthe final poll with a huge lead in Winnipeg

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/provincial-election/ndp-clinging-to-lead-poll-says-130836243.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Impressive fightback. And will be even if it doesn't work out in the end.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, here's my Manitoba prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/manitoba-election-2011-prediction.html

Tory majority still possible, but not likely.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Ok, here's my Manitoba prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/manitoba-election-2011-prediction.html

Tory majority still possible, but not likely.

You have my endorsement. I've done my own projection earlier this morning and you are showing the results I got - except I think the Grits might lose their seat.

[lilTommy]

Ok, here's my Manitoba prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/manitoba-election-2011-prediction.html

Tory majority still possible, but not likely.

You have my endorsement. I've done my own projection earlier this morning and you are showing the results I got - except I think the Grits might lose their seat.

At 7% in the city, both Liberals seats are almost for sure to be split between the Tories(River Heights) and NDP (Tyndall Park). Manitoba will soon look like Saskatchewan, a two party province.

[Hatman 🍁]

Word is the Liberals area still ahead in River Heights, so I'm comfortable with that projection.

[lilTommy]

If i were a MANliberal... i'd only be working on River Heights. Its better to keep one then lose two.

Other elections... A new NFLD poll!

MQO Poll:
PC: 54 (+1)
NDP: 33 (+4 nice)
LIB: 13 (-5 ouch)

LEADER - KD: 62 LM 27 KA: 11.
Who won debate? KD 36 LM 22. KA 6 Sample 464 +/-4.6%

Don't have a link since i saw it tweeted on CBC

[Holmes]

NDP becoming the anti-Tory party... hopefully they can build on that for future elections and try to win the Premiership. Or translate that into federal support outside of St. John's.

[lilTommy]

NDP becoming the anti-Tory party... hopefully they can build on that for future elections and try to win the Premiership. Or translate that into federal support outside of St. John's.

... or both

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The decline of the Newfie Liberals is a remarkable (and in some ways shocking) thing. Because what's happened over the past decade goes beyond merely being on the wrong side of landslides and because of how important the party has been in the history of the place.

[Hatman 🍁]

It keeps getting better. Except, the Tories are up 1!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Other elections... A new NFLD poll!

MQO Poll:
PC: 54 (+1)
NDP: 33 (+4 nice)
LIB: 13 (-5 ouch)

LEADER - KD: 62 LM 27 KA: 11.
Who won debate? KD 36 LM 22. KA 6 Sample 464 +/-4.6%

Don't have a link since i saw it tweeted on CBC

This is getting closer to the math I used to make my NL projection.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Liberals
Cartwright (only solid seat)
Burgeo (possible loss as well)

less likely:
Port de Grave
The Isles of Notre Dame
Bellevue
Bay Islands
Humber Valley
Torngat Mountains



NDP :
Signal Hill (most solid)
Labrador West (so solid I'd eat my shirt if they lose)
St. John's Centre
St. John's East
Burin-Placentia
St. John's North
St. John's South

less likely:
St. John's West
Lake Melville
Humber Valley
Port de Grave
Lewisporte
Placentia
Bellevue
Conception Bay East
and Virginia Waters, the Premier's own riding

So that's 16 ridings, MAX, that could go NDP, and 8 Liberal (with 3 overlap).
That means that I see the PC party winning in the other 27 ridings, and no way in hell they will lose those 27 ridings; with a maximum limit for the party of 45.

[lilTommy]

Liberals
Cartwright (only solid seat)
Burgeo (possible loss as well)

less likely:
Port de Grave
The Isles of Notre Dame
Bellevue
Bay Islands
Humber Valley
Torngat Mountains



NDP :
Signal Hill (most solid)
Labrador West (so solid I'd eat my shirt if they lose)
St. John's Centre
St. John's East
Burin-Placentia
St. John's North
St. John's South

less likely:
St. John's West
Lake Melville
Humber Valley
Port de Grave
Lewisporte
Placentia
Bellevue
Conception Bay East
and Virginia Waters, the Premier's own riding

So that's 16 ridings, MAX, that could go NDP, and 8 Liberal (with 3 overlap).
That means that I see the PC party winning in the other 27 ridings, and no way in hell they will lose those 27 ridings; with a maximum limit for the party of 45.

So that "could" mean the NDP would win every city of SJs seat (except Virginia Waters, is that in the city?) making it the centre of the opposition strength; and Labrador could elect only opposition members (NDP in LW, Liberals in Cartwright, Lake Melville and Torngat Mnts)
Thats an interesting dynamic

[MaxQue]

Yes, Virginia Waters is in St. John's.

[Hatman 🍁]

I hope you're right Teddy. I suspect my next projection will start having some too close to call races in St. John's.

[DL]

There is a precedent for a party going from being in government and even a natural governing party of a province - to being dead in very short order.

Look at the Union Nationale in Quebec. They were in power almost continuously 1936 to 1960 under Duplessis - then they lost in 1960, then they had a dead cat bounce and regained power under Daniel Johnson in 1966, then they lost big in 1970 to Robert Bourassa and the Liberals but were still official opposition, then they were wiped off the map in 1973 and reduced to just 5% of the vote - so there you have it - in April 1970 the UN was the government of Quebec - by October 1973 they had zero seats and 4% of the vote!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is a precedent for a party going from being in government and even a natural governing party of a province - to being dead in very short order.

True; obviously you've mentioned the most remarkable example, but there's also the Saskatchewan PCs, the SoCreds, the old conservative Liberals in Manitoba and Saskatchewan... to say nothing of the near-death experiences of once-governing NDP's in a couple of provinces. Given the massive historical importance of the Newfie Liberals, this would be up there with the UN, even if the fall won't have been quite as dramatic. If it happens.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberal Party of NL is not dead. When the rural outports want change, it's not likely they'll choose the NDP, they'll pick the Liberals.  Newfoundland could very well be a 3 party system in the coming years. But, if the Tories and NDP duke it out in St. John's, that leaves the Liberals in the rest of the province and could yet win again.