2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[lilTommy]

City of Toronto (416) is also shaping as a three way race - when you have Liberals at 36% and NDP and Tories at 38% each - it smells to me like a three way split in the seat count because of the way the Liberal vote is spread evenly across the city.

...Its actually 28% for the Tories and the NDP, but i think your point still stands
with these numbers, and the NDP candidates i see... Davenport and York South-Weston are sure to fall to the NDP. I don't think we can count out Scar Rouge River or South West since they are held federally, they are competative and i'd give the NDP a fighting chance. This puts Tor Centre in the mix too but that i feel is more of a long shot

[Hatman 🍁]

Scarborough SW is a possibility, probably not in SRR.

[lilTommy]

Scarborough SW is a possibility, probably not in SRR.

I would have put it in the reverse. I feel that Neethan (SRR candidate) has much more exposure, and is much more well known in the community then Bruce Budd is in SSW. The only thing working against him is that there is a liberal incumbent.
In both cases be sure to see Rathika and Dan on the campaign trails with them.

[DL]

Regarding Toronto, i will also be very interested to see what happens in York West. That is actually the poorest riding in the city and was once a NDP stronghold provincially. The NDP is running the executive assistant to a city councillor in the area and the Liberal incumbent is very - shall we say - dated.

[Holmes]

Having an NDP MPP in York West would probably make me cream myself. Assistant to Perruzza = endorsed. But I just can't see it happening. If these people re-elected Sgro of all people, why would they they not re-elect Sergio because he's old?

Ontario's election is in five weeks, are we going to have a separate thread for it eventually?

[lilTommy]

... also, its pretty unfortunate but the poor rarely vote in large numbers. But it will be during the school year and YorkU tends (as we saw in May) to vote NDP, so that will help.
I would love to see York West fall but it would take a huge event to push it to the NDP... but definelty a moderate target. If ONDP can utilze Perruzza's resources and really target their decided voters, HST issues with the working poor... possibly some spill over enthusiasm from York South-Weston.
Toronto Centre has that same issue, Regent/Moss park dosen't vote in the numbers like Rosedale does.
NDP foot soldiers are going to have a big task ahead for them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ontario's election is in five weeks, are we going to have a separate thread for it eventually?

Absolutely not.

[DL]

I think Sgro is a stronger incumbent than Sergio and also the NDP had no campaign federally in York West. It may make difference to have an active campaign there this time.

[Hash]

I wonder what kind of clown they'll find to put up in Orleans.

Still no one. Seems to be the only riding in the city where the NDP is completely dead. No active riding association, no active campaigns, nothing. ever. It's too bad, I know a lot of public servants live in the riding.

I would blame suburbia, but Nepean-Carleton has a competent candidate in Ric Dagenais, and Carleton-MM even had a contested nomination.

Yeah, they nominated some unknown Haitian student who had no campaign whatsoever in May at the last minute after their original candidate endorsed the Liberal as did some previous federal candidate. But they can still get up to 14% or so, which considering how they nominate clowns and have no base whatsoever is scarily impressive.

[MaxQue]

I wonder what kind of clown they'll find to put up in Orleans.

Still no one. Seems to be the only riding in the city where the NDP is completely dead. No active riding association, no active campaigns, nothing. ever. It's too bad, I know a lot of public servants live in the riding.

I would blame suburbia, but Nepean-Carleton has a competent candidate in Ric Dagenais, and Carleton-MM even had a contested nomination.

Yeah, they nominated some unknown Haitian student who had no campaign whatsoever in May at the last minute after their original candidate endorsed the Liberal as did some previous federal candidate. But they can still get up to 14% or so, which considering how they nominate clowns and have no base whatsoever is scarily impressive.

The Liberal candidate in my riding got to 18% in my home riding in 2008 even if most of base defected to the Conservatives. And the candidate was beyond awful, he spend the campaign fleeing the journalists asking questions about his criminal record.

[Hash]

I wonder what kind of clown they'll find to put up in Orleans.

Still no one. Seems to be the only riding in the city where the NDP is completely dead. No active riding association, no active campaigns, nothing. ever. It's too bad, I know a lot of public servants live in the riding.

I would blame suburbia, but Nepean-Carleton has a competent candidate in Ric Dagenais, and Carleton-MM even had a contested nomination.

Yeah, they nominated some unknown Haitian student who had no campaign whatsoever in May at the last minute after their original candidate endorsed the Liberal as did some previous federal candidate. But they can still get up to 14% or so, which considering how they nominate clowns and have no base whatsoever is scarily impressive.

The Liberal candidate in my riding got to 18% in my home riding in 2008 even if most of base defected to the Conservatives. And the candidate was beyond awful, he spend the campaign fleeing the journalists asking questions about his criminal record.

Yeah, I remember that guy. Wasn't he a racist as well or something? Every party has some small base no matter the riding it seems, even if there's no ground work or an awful candidate. Though to be fair most of the Liberal vote until this year in Abitibi-Nunavik was tribal loyalty to the Liberals as the sole non-Bloc alternative from the natives in Nunavik. I suppose they didn't get the news that the specific Liberal candidate was an idiot and they hadn't gotten around to voting NDP.

===post edited by friendly neighbourhood dictator (who is on power trip). other posts in thread deaded. take it outside, etc===

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder what kind of clown they'll find to put up in Orleans.

Still no one. Seems to be the only riding in the city where the NDP is completely dead. No active riding association, no active campaigns, nothing. ever. It's too bad, I know a lot of public servants live in the riding.

I would blame suburbia, but Nepean-Carleton has a competent candidate in Ric Dagenais, and Carleton-MM even had a contested nomination.

Yeah, they nominated some unknown Haitian student who had no campaign whatsoever in May at the last minute after their original candidate endorsed the Liberal as did some previous federal candidate. But they can still get up to 14% or so, which considering how they nominate clowns and have no base whatsoever is scarily impressive.

Imagine if they actually ran a decent candidate?

[Hash]

I wonder what kind of clown they'll find to put up in Orleans.

Still no one. Seems to be the only riding in the city where the NDP is completely dead. No active riding association, no active campaigns, nothing. ever. It's too bad, I know a lot of public servants live in the riding.

I would blame suburbia, but Nepean-Carleton has a competent candidate in Ric Dagenais, and Carleton-MM even had a contested nomination.

Yeah, they nominated some unknown Haitian student who had no campaign whatsoever in May at the last minute after their original candidate endorsed the Liberal as did some previous federal candidate. But they can still get up to 14% or so, which considering how they nominate clowns and have no base whatsoever is scarily impressive.

Imagine if they actually ran a decent candidate?

They might do up to 20% or so, but it's a very affluent suburb. This isn't at all natural NDP territory, and they'd struggle to do well let alone threatening the Liberals or Conservatives.

[lilTommy]

The election season has just started up now... MAN, YK & ON are already itching to get started and the CBC now has dedicated pages to each (even NWT which is a unique system that dosen't use political parties, and is more consensus based)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/

I have to say the YukonNDP website, has improved dramatically (i've been following nominations in all provinces and was checking in regularly), their site is the BEST of all three parties... plus there was a make-me-smile moment in a articule in Yukon News..

"But, while Mitchell’s (LIB leader) speech moved a crowd of more than 50 Liberal stalwarts to a half-hearted standing ovation, Hanson’s(NDP Leader) address was followed by whoops, cheers and chanting from a crowd nearly twice as big.
The Dippers’ party also featured dancing, thanks to music by Kevin Barr, their candidate for Southern Lakes and Mount Lorne. And they had better food, with hummus, tzatziki and spicy chicken thighs served up by Kebabery owner Louis Gagnon, who’s seeking the party’s nomination in Whitehorse West.
Whether being able to throw a better party translates into a more successful election campaign remains to be seen."

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I've been curious about the Yukon for a bit. The Greens could pull off a seat, but, maybe not. The Liberals do indeed seem to be in big trouble. Polling is hard in a place with 30K people, but the last poll showed the Liberals in 3rd. When a date is set, please let us know!

[lilTommy]

Another NFLD Poll:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/09/06/nl-cra-poll-906.html

                     May
Tories: 54% (57%)
NDP: 24% (20%)
Liberal: 22% (22%)

Good news for the NDP, and those from NFLD can maybe add more detail... 50+% still means a majority, and if this (NDP) number is focused on the Avalon-St. John's could this mean more seats? Another potenial for history if the NDP unseats the Libs at opposition.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another NFLD Poll:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/09/06/nl-cra-poll-906.html

                     May
Tories: 54% (57%)
NDP: 24% (20%)
Liberal: 22% (22%)

Good news for the NDP, and those from NFLD can maybe add more detail... 50+% still means a majority, and if this (NDP) number is focused on the Avalon-St. John's could this mean more seats? Another potenial for history if the NDP unseats the Libs at opposition.

Ooh. I'll have to do a Nfld projection, finally. Might take a couple days, but I will be doing this before my next Ontario prediction.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sneak preview of my NL projection:

The province of Newfoundland and Labrador will also be going to the polls this fall. Their election date is set for October 11. And now that there has finally been another poll released in the province, I can do my first official projection for Canada's youngest province.

Corporate Research Associates released a poll Tuesday indicating that very little has changed since previous poll from last May. The poll, which was conducted from August 15-31 indicated the following,

Prog. Cons.: 54%
NDP: 24%
Liberal: 22%

Despite still having the support of a majority of voters, the Tories are actually polling their worst since probably before Danny Williams was leader. The NDP likewise is in all likelihood at their highest polling numbers ever.

Background
Popular Tory Premier Danny Williams resigned at the height of his game last December. Williams was first elected in the 2003 election with a large majority of the vote (59%). His popularity was so high, that he won the 2007 election with the highest popular vote percentage in Canadian history, with 70% of th vote! It's a wonder how his party didn't win every seat in the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. Somehow the Liberals won 3 seats and the NDP won 1. The Tories won 44. Despite Williams leading the provincial Tories, he hated the federal Tories. His “Anybody But Conservative” campaign in the 2008 federal election helped shut out the Harper conservatives on the rock. The Tories did come back in 2011 by winning Labrador, but were still shut out on the island.

Williams was replaced by Newfoundland's first female Premier, Kathy Dunderdale. Despite slipping in the polls, her party is still well in the lead. We were bound for having an all-female leader election this Fall, but it was not to be. Liberal leader Yvonne Jones had to step down last month due to cancer, and the Liberals quickly elected former MHA (Member of the House of Assembly) Kevin Aylward to lead them into the election. The NDP, which currently holds 2 seats in the Canadian House of Commons in the province is led by former nun Lorraine Michael. Her seat is the only one held by the party in the House of Assembly.

Races to watch

Labrador

It appears that every riding in Labrador will be interesting to watch come election night. Cartwright—L'Anse au Clair is probably the only sure bet, as it has always voted Liberal. The only question is how will Yvonne Jones fair there after she stepped down as Liberal leader due to cancer. Labrador West  has been a riding that has flipped between all three parties in recent elections. Tory  MHA Jim Baker is stepping aside, creating a showdown between the Tories and the NDP here. This riding is the NDP's best shot at a second seat in the province, having only lost it by 400 votes in 2007. This part of Labrador also went NDP in the federal election. Lake Melville will be an interesting race because Tory MHA John Hickey is stepping down. This seat is historically Liberal, but Hickey benefited in the 2003 election on a vote split with the Labrador Party helping him win his first race. Finally, up in the Torngat Mountains, Tory MHA Patty Pottle will be in a fight with the Liberals. She won her 2007 race by just 76 votes.

St. John's & the Avalon Peninsula

The Avalon Peninsula is the more Tory friendly part of the province. Interestingly, this is also the area that has gone NDP federally as of late, due to disaffected federal Tories making their switch to the NDP. Perhaps an unlikely choice, but when you've never voted Liberal in generations, why start now?

This part of the province was the best area for Danny Williams, as his Tories racked up massive majorities in most seats. The question is whether or not the NDP can make some inroads here, like they did provincially.

The NDP's lone seat in the province is Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi. The seat has been held by the party since 1990 when former provincial NDP leader (and current MP) Jack Harris won it. The race has been close in recent elections, and current MHA and leader Lorraine Michaels may be in a tough race against the Auditor General of the province, John Noseworthy, who is running for the Tories.

The other St. John's seats were won by overwhelming margins for the Tories in 2007, none lower than 70% of the vote. Only one incumbent is retiring, Sheila Osborne in St. John's West. She got 73% of the vote last time, and it's unlikely the Tories will lose it now.

The Tories won more massive majorities in the St. John's suburbs. Only one seat is open, as Dave Devine is retiring in Mount Pearl South. Considering he won with 84% of the vote in 2007, this one should stay Tory!

The only Liberal seat on the Avalon peninsula is Port de Grave. This seat has been Liberal for all by 7 years since the province joined confederation, and has been Liberal since 1985. MHA Roland Butler will be retiring however, making this seat an interesting one to watch, as he had only won by less than 300 votes in the 2007 election. All other races on the peninsula should be easy Tory wins.

Rural Newfoundland

Outside of the Avalon Peninsula has been traditionally more Liberal in the province. Having said that, the Liberals hold just 2 seats in all of this area, and won only one in the last election. However, if they are to make gains, it will most likely be here.

Some seats the Liberals could pick off  include Bellevue (where Tory Calvin Peach won by 800 votes in 2007), The Isles of Notre Dame (where Tory Derrick Dalley won by just 7 votes), Bay of Islands (where Tory Terry Loder defeated the Liberal MHA Eddie Joyce by 400 votes. They will be in a rematch), and Humber Valley (which will be another rematch of last election where Tory Darryl Kelly defeated the sitting MHA, Dwight Ball by 300 votes). Also, recent by-elections in the area have also shown that the Liberals should be targeting other seats, such as St. Barbe. Former Liberal leader Jim Bennett is running again there in a seat he lost by 900 votes in 2007. The Liberals came within 400 votes of winning a 2008 by-election in Baie Verte-Springdale, and 700 votes from winning Terra Nova  in 2009. Also, we musn't forget the riding Liberal leader Kevin Aylward is running in, St. George's—Stephenville East. He will have an uphill battle, as the Liberals were 50% behind in the 2007 election.  The Liberals had picked up just one seat in a by-election during the last legislative session. Marhsall Dean won the seat for the Grits in 2009. Benefiting from a large 19% swing, he beat the Tory candidate by just 126 votes. The only other Liberal seat in the area is Burgeo-LaPoile. This Liberal stronghold should continue to go Liberal, despite the retiring of its incumbent, Kelvin Parsons. His son, Andrew will be the party's candidate in the riding that has been held by the Tories for just 7 years since 1949.

Meanwhile, the NDP will be setting its sights at Burin-Placentia West. Their candidate is Julie Mitchell, who ran and lost by 1,400 votes in 2007 to Tory Clyde Jackman. With the NDP doing much better in the polls, she is sure to have a shot at the riding. This appears to be the party's third best hope in the province.

The Tories will just have two retiring incumbents in the area. Bonavista North and Bonavista South. The Liberals may have a shot at the north riding, where Harry Harding is retiring. This seat has voted Liberal for most of its history, but the Liberals lost by 1,500 votes in 2007. In the south riding, Rodger Fitzgerald is retiring. He was acclaimed in 2007, meaning it will be hard to guage how well the Liberals will do. It has been a Tory riding since 1993 however, and Fitzgerald won by 3,300 votes in his last contested election of 2003.

[MaxQue]

That will probably be in 2012, but perhaps in 2011. A by-election will by held in Bonaventure, because Nathalie Normandeau, Vice-PM of Quebec and minister of Natural Ressources resigned for personal reasons.

According to medias, that is because her recent relationships were heavily covered by medias. She dated François Bonnardel, an ADQ MNA in 2009. She also dated Yvan Delorme, an former chief of Montreal Police, which has links with a corrupt business called BCIA. That scandal caused the resignation of the Family minister, Tony Tomassi, last year. She is 43, if she wants to have kids, she doesn't have mush time left. And because she is 43, we shouldn't be surprised if she come back in a few years. She had the reputation of being an excellent parlementarian and she was in the favorites to succeed Charest.

Will she come back once he will leave?

That by-election is important because the majority of the government is very tight.

Current standings are:
Liberals - 65
PQ - 46
ADQ - 4
QS - 1
Independants - 9 (2 formers Adéquistes, 1 expelled Liberal, 1 expelled Péquiste and 5 former Péquistes)

So, Bonaventure proper. It has a strong Liberal lean and there 15% of Anglophones, but opposition can win it. Past results aren't very useful, as Normandeau was hugely popular there. The riding was represented from 1956 to 1993, by Gérard D. Lévesque, a Liberal,the longest-serving MNA in history, which was often interim leader of the party during leadership races and was very often in Liberal Cabinets. They elected a PQ MNA in the by-election after his death, which was reelected in 1994, but lost in 1998 to Normandeau.

So, given her absence from the election and the impopularity of Liberals, that election might be interesting. And perhaps Legault's Party will run in it for the first time?

[RogueBeaver]

The Legault Party isn't running in anything this year, and Bonaventure stays Liberal. I honestly don't see the BFD about Legault, except that the media is making a very unremarkable ex-Peq minister a BFD.

[MaxQue]

The Legault Party isn't running in anything this year, and Bonaventure stays Liberal. I honestly don't see the BFD about Legault, except that the media is making a very unremarkable ex-Peq minister a BFD.

I neither see why people are loving Legault. He was only a more competent PQ minister than Marois was (which isn't saying much, as she was dreadful).

[adma]

I really wonder about Newfoundland, since it's a place that can be prone to breakneck swings.  Like, if the NDP sustains a certain momentum with a few select "star candidates", even a 70%+ PC seat in the Avalon doesn't necessarily have "incumbent hold" etched in stone...

[Hatman 🍁]

We missed a poll from PEI as well,

Lib: 59
PC: 31
NDP: 7
Grn: 3

[Hatman 🍁]

Newfoundland projection

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/newfoundland-and-labrador-projection.html

I admit, I was being a tad "Liberal" with my predictions there.

PEI will come up next, whenever I get the chance to do it.

[lilTommy]

I suspect PEI will be boring... And yes, i think the results wont be so "Liberal" in NFLD

http://www.leaderpost.com/health/Sask+Party+personal+attack+trumps+policy/5368410/story.html

in Saskatchewan, looks like it might be a more interesting fight... Personality (empty policy)SASK party vs Policy (empty personality?) NDP... i'm hoping it is more of a fight.