2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tory to NDP is a big jump ideologically 

Not in Newfoundland.

[lilTommy]

Tory to NDP is a big jump ideologically 

Not in Newfoundland.

Can you fill me in as to why?
... Sounds like the same is true for the Yukon, but i think thats a different story.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Because the Newfie PC's aren't really a right-wing party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tory to NDP is a big jump ideologically 

Not in Newfoundland.

Can you fill me in as to why?
... Sounds like the same is true for the Yukon, but i think thats a different story.

Where are the Tories traditionally strong in Nfld? Avalon peninsula. Where are the two NDP seats in the province? Avalon peninsula. I think that sums it up best. When the federal Tories collapsed in the province, where did their voters go? NDP or, if they are truly right wing (which they're not, it's mostly tradition), they didn't vote at all.

The area is mostly Catholic, and they'd don't vote Liberal in Nfld.

[DL]

I would second that - Newfoundland is a bit of a flip from the usual Canadian pattern St. John's is mostly Catholic and catholics in NL traditionally voted Progressive Conservative, while the rural outports tended to be Protestant and Liberal. but the brand of Tory in Newfoundland was always very, very red and had no connection at all to the western reactionaries who dominate the federal Tory party. They were like the last vestiges of liberal Republicans who were still winning in places like Vermont right up until ten years ago.

There is so much tribal enmity between Tories and Liberals and between Catholics and Protestants in NL that a lot of people from Tory families will say "if i ever voted Liberal old Grandpa McLeod would roll over in his grave" etc... but the NDP has no history in Newfoundland so there is no tribal taboo against voting for them. Danny Williams the ridiculously popular PC Premier of NL who just retired is a close personal friend and former law partner of NDP MP Jack Harris and when he had a falling out with Harper and the federal Tories in 2008 and he all but publicly endorsed the NDP in St. John's.

In some ways NL is like Quebec. In Quebec there is so much tribal hatred between federalists and sovereigntists that its hard for voters to switch between the Liberals and the BQ - but then the NDP comes along with no baggage and ex-Liberal and ex-BQ voters alike are able to find a new home.     

[Hatman 🍁]

It should be noted that NL isn't particularly left wing either, so I think that's where the similarities between the rock and New England end.

What is also interesting is that Fort McMurray isn't particularly Liberal, which is surprising considering how many Newfies live there. Perhaps they don't vote, or vote at home? Most of the Newfies in Fort Mac are likely from the rural Protestant areas.

[DL]

I guess it depends on how you define "leftwing". In many ways NL actually is quite leftwing. They have quite a high level of union membership. They got rid of their religiously based school system. They tend to be very much in favour of government spending, programs and subsidies (ie: employment insurance, massive subsidies for cod fishermen etc...), they tend to like a lot of gov't support for the arts and culture and NL was one of the first couple of provinces to legalize same sex marriage etc...can you name a province in English Canada that is more leftwing than Newfoundland??

As for Fort McMurray - i think I read that that riding had the lowest turnout in all of Canada with barely 40% of eligible voters casting a ballot. Given that its such a supersafe Tory seat etc...I suspect that the vast majority of expatriate Newfies working in the tar sands don't bother voting at all.

[Hatman 🍁]

BC might be more left wing than NL, or perhaps Nova Scotia. BC has a lot of right wing areas too, so it's tough to compare (it's a lot like California in that respect).

Newfoundland is definitely culturally conservative though. They may be economically left wing (and why not, considering the unemployment there), and socially left wing in some respects, but the culture there is still conservative, as it is in most of Atlantic Canada.

[RogueBeaver]

NL: Safe PC. No, Dunderdale won't get a shutout like Ghiz might and McKenna did, but a near-sweep.

SK: Safe SP.

MB: Tossup, possible NDP victory.

ON: Likely PC.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The basic issue with Newfoundland parties, and the reason for the odd regional distribution, is that they are descended from the pro- and anti-Canada forces in the 1948 referendum. The areas around St. John's supported independence (as a Commonwealth dominion), since they were more prosperous and economically diversified and thought they could survive as a self-sufficient country, while the rural outports supported confederation with Canada since they were poor and dependent on a single declining industry (the fishery) and wanted Canadian federal money. (Wikipedia results map, no percentages).

After the Confederation side won, the pro-Confederation side became the Liberals, in part because their leader Joey Smallwood wanted to ally himself with St. Laurent's federal government, but it also made a certain amount of ideological sense, since the pro-Canadian fishermen supported a strong safety net but had little tradition of union or co-operative politics. The independence side then became the PC's sort of by default, since they were the other side. Support for actual independence hasn't been a significant force since then, but there is a strong tradition of devolutionist PC politicians. (And "became" here is meant literally: the Newfoundland Confederate Association and the Responsible Government League just changed their names to the Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador and the Progressive Conservative Party of Labrador respectively in 1948-9). This is the reason that Newfoundland traditionally has had the reverse of the usual urban-rural pattern.

Now, however, St. John's is developing a more typical contemporary style of politics and so the NDP is gaining there while the rural areas are more traditional.

[DL]

St. John's is developing voting patterns just like Halifax (remember Halifax was Robert Stanfield's old seat and was Tory for many years - now its a total NDP stronghold). I think by the next election you will see Saint John and Moncton, NB trending NDP as well.

[MaxQue]

St. John's is developing voting patterns just like Halifax (remember Halifax was Robert Stanfield's old seat and was Tory for many years - now its a total NDP stronghold). I think by the next election you will see Saint John and Moncton, NB trending NDP as well.

It already began.
Saint John, NB
        CPC LPC NDP
2008  40   38  16 
2011  50   16  31

Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
        CPC LPC NDP
2008  36   39  16 
2011  36   31  29

[DL]

I saw that trend to - but next time the NDP will seriously target Saint John and Moncton and probably win them and maybe Charlottetown too. One mystery in Atlantic Canada is why the federal NDP doesn't do better in Sydney and Glace Bay. A generation ago that was the ONLY place in Atlantic Canada they ever won - now its a wasteland. Any idea why?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you mean federally, then wasn't it actually elsewhere on Cape Breton? I think the only time the Sydney riding was ever won was 1997. Provincially the NDP hold two seats in that area and both are usually won by big margins. Personality politics matters a lot there, of course.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not much industry left there, I guess.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not much industry left there, I guess.

So long as the people - some of them anyway - are still there then that's never really an explanation. But I think the fact that the Tories ran an outstanding candidate in Sydney-Victoria (CB North MLA Cecil Clarke) might be the start of one.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, I don't get Cape Breton.  Maybe they're socially conservative there. Kinda like Canada's West Virginia.

[Хahar 🤔]

How did John Crosbie come to exist? He doesn't seem to be the sort of person who would get anywhere in Newfoundland.

[MaxQue]

How did John Crosbie come to exist? He doesn't seem to be the sort of person who would get anywhere in Newfoundland.

He was running as the Progressive-Conservative candidate in St. John's, before merger.
St. John's was heavily Red Tory, I think, they don't seem to like Harper at all.

[Hatman 🍁]

How did John Crosbie come to exist? He doesn't seem to be the sort of person who would get anywhere in Newfoundland.

Seriously? Newfies love their populist grandstanders, no matter their political stripe. The more pro-Newfoundlander a candidate is, the better. It's almost a form of nationalism, if you call it that.

[Linus Van Pelt]

If you mean federally, then wasn't it actually elsewhere on Cape Breton? I think the only time the Sydney riding was ever won was 1997. Provincially the NDP hold two seats in that area and both are usually won by big margins. Personality politics matters a lot there, of course.

Clarie Gillis's seat was essentially Sydney and Glace Bay, in spite of the "south" in the name.

In the post-WWII period, the provincial party was dominated by fractious disputes between the Cape Breton coal unions and the mainland party who had to appeal to a quite different electorate; I'm pretty hazy on the details of this period or what it was all actually about, but the end result was basically that the mainlanders won and industrial Cape Breton left the party en masse for a long time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Clarie Gillis's seat was essentially Sydney and Glace Bay, in spite of the "south" in the name.

Ah, yeah. Forgot about him. I was thinking of seat they held in the late 1970s, though it must have had part of that area as well.

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Was that the split that led to Paul MacEwen forming the CB Labour Party (and then later joining the Liberals) or an earlier one? MacEwen's seat is NDP again, of course.

[mileslunn]

John Crosbie's riding also included much of the souther part of Avalon which the Tories still do well in.  Also the Tories did win the two St. John's seats in 2004 and 2006 under Harper, but I agree that was more out of tradition than any real support for the federal Tories.  As for Moncton and Saint John, Moncton seems possible, but Saint John might be more difficult since the Tories got almost 50% and I don't think there are a whole lot of Tory-NDP switchers in New Brunswick.  The most likely way for them to win it is hope the Liberals recover somewhat and all their gains come at the expense of the Tories and pick up a few marginal votes thus a three way split.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

For the first time ever, Newfoundland is one of the rich provinces. They switched a few years back, but this has had a major impact. Just as Cape Breton once did well for the NDP until they all went poor, the economic changes in Newfoundland will have repercussions on politics.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nanos with sh*tty NDP numbers again

(Ontario)

PC: 42%
Lib: 38%
NDP: 16% (!)
Grn: 3%

That's a drop of 7% from other pollsters for the NDP.

Meanwhile in NL, the provincial Liberal party selected a new leader after Yvonne Jones stepped down due to cancer. They selected former MHA Kevin Aylward who will be running in St. George's-Stephenville East.