Let's see, Bachmann ran about even with her district's PVI. If every Pubbie ran even with their PVI, that would mean the Dems would win the generic vote by about 5%. That is not a good number in a GOP wave election. If you compared GOP incumbent.s performance to their district's PVI, Bachmann this year must be close to the bottom. That might be why she got a cool reception: she is toxic with the swing voters needed to win POTUS, or for that matter, winning Congress. If everyone ran as well as Bachmann vis a vis their district's PVI, it is problematical if the GOP would even have taken the House this year.
As a result of the packing of Dem voters, there are 234 GOP PVI districts, 9 ties, and 201 Dem PVIs. This House election was unusual in that PVI was a pretty good predictor of the result (not in all cases, obviously).
