2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Oryxslayer]

Couldn’t Evers just veto the repeal of the veto?  Republicans don’t have two thirds majorities needed to override his veto.

There is a legit fear that the Republicans in the state legislature would attempt to do redistricting via a legislative resolution that does not require the veto of the governor. They tried this before in I think the 60's but it was struck down by the Supreme Court. Hagedorn has appeared to be fairly reasonable since joining the court last year, so maybe all hope isn't lost.

Hagedorn so far is a solid conservative yet not a power grabber. This is a problem for the legislature if they try to do redistricting via a resolution. However, Hagedorn would probably be fine if legislative/executive deadlock punts the maps up to the supreme court for them to draw. The problem for the WI GOP then would be the fact that a R-favoring court map wouldn't carve up WI03 like they want, and maybe mess with other stuff like incumbents and their bases of support.

[Oryxslayer]

To prove the point, I just ran up a couple of clean-looking congressional maps.

The first prioritises keeping counties and municipalities whole (it has one precinct of Milwaukee in the 1st for population equality, but that's the only split) whilst still maintaining the basic orientation of the current districts: https://davesredistricting.org/join/13cd8bbf-1e30-48c6-8888-8d76c4bef3cd

Trump won 6 districts (the 1st by 5.4%, the 3rd by 4.9%) and Walker won 5 (the 3rd went for Evers 50-47.8, Walker won the 1st 51.4-46.2.) Even Baldwin only won 4 districts and her margin was pretty slim in the 1st.

The second map is similar, but it aims to shift the 3rd a bit to the right and puts Tiffany's home back into the 7th (Steil is drawn out in both maps, but only by a couple of miles and it's not like there are that many Republican votes in Janesville itself): https://davesredistricting.org/join/779381e0-692f-429d-92a5-47fab02db513

Under this map Trump won the 3rd by 7.0% and Walker won it by 2.1%.

I'm not saying that these are the best possible maps, but I am saying that if I could run these maps up in 20 minutes using nothing more than Wikipedia, I think hackish justices could too and the consultants they'll hire to draw the map certainly could.

The GOP would prefer to dismantle the 3rd and reinforce the 1st, both of which become harder under simple COI and neatness rules. For example, the WI GOP gerry I got sitting in my DRA (using 2016 data, I have not gotten to the state in 2018 yet) get six seats to 55 - 54 Trump vs 40 - 38 Clinton. That becomes impossible under a R-tilting count plan, since WI03 and WI01 need to keep their general centers of gravity.

Doing an absurd cut into Waukesha might be out of the question for WI01 considering clear COIs, and the seat will have to satisfy itself lesser red suburbs. WI03 is more complex because more counties, but the fact it will probably still have to contain two of Eau Claire, Stevens Point, and La Crosse among others means that the seat will still be, on some level, competitive. They would prefer something far more harsh like what Ohio in 2010 did to Obama's 2008 statewide victory. This is a line of tension, though it very well may be resolved as quickly as it emerges.

TLDR: A Court Map would probably end up with 2 Lean/Likely R seats and 4 Safe R seats, whereas the legislature would prefer 6 Safe R.

[Oryxslayer]

To prove the point, I just ran up a couple of clean-looking congressional maps.

The first prioritises keeping counties and municipalities whole (it has one precinct of Milwaukee in the 1st for population equality, but that's the only split) whilst still maintaining the basic orientation of the current districts: https://davesredistricting.org/join/13cd8bbf-1e30-48c6-8888-8d76c4bef3cd

Trump won 6 districts (the 1st by 5.4%, the 3rd by 4.9%) and Walker won 5 (the 3rd went for Evers 50-47.8, Walker won the 1st 51.4-46.2.) Even Baldwin only won 4 districts and her margin was pretty slim in the 1st.

The second map is similar, but it aims to shift the 3rd a bit to the right and puts Tiffany's home back into the 7th (Steil is drawn out in both maps, but only by a couple of miles and it's not like there are that many Republican votes in Janesville itself): https://davesredistricting.org/join/779381e0-692f-429d-92a5-47fab02db513

Under this map Trump won the 3rd by 7.0% and Walker won it by 2.1%.

I'm not saying that these are the best possible maps, but I am saying that if I could run these maps up in 20 minutes using nothing more than Wikipedia, I think hackish justices could too and the consultants they'll hire to draw the map certainly could.

The GOP would prefer to dismantle the 3rd and reinforce the 1st, both of which become harder under simple COI and neatness rules. For example, the WI GOP gerry I got sitting in my DRA (using 2016 data, I have not gotten to the state in 2018 yet) get six seats to 55 - 54 Trump vs 40 - 38 Clinton. That becomes impossible under a R-tilting count plan, since WI03 and WI01 need to keep their general centers of gravity.

I think you'd need to do more than that to get to those levels. I just had a go at packing the Madison and Milwaukee seats to the maximum possible extent, and even with the centres of Racine and Kenosha thrown into the Milwaukee seat via water contiguity, the rest of the state topped out at 54.7% Trump.

This map sticks La Crosse in WI02 and has the rest of the state at 54.3/39.3 thanks to selective precinct selection. I basically stripped WOW in a way that diversified the GOP vote, but also in a way that isn't abnormally ugly and keeps most counties intact.

[Oryxslayer]

Unsurprising. The most boring news of this redistricting cycle.

Evers will veto, the Leg won't be able to override, and we will then get into the juicy stuff.

[Oryxslayer]

Unsurprising. The most boring news of this redistricting cycle.

Evers will veto, the Leg won't be able to override, and we will then get into the juicy stuff.

What happens then? Is it court-drawn or something?

That's why it's so juicy. We don't know. Obviously there will be a bunch of plans flying around, potential for compromise plans (lol this is WI), reps would want the state supreme whereas dems would prefer district courts, and then every other uncertainty that would flow from a court case.

[Oryxslayer]

The GOP maps passed the legislature and now await Evers' veto.

[Oryxslayer]

It's been 3 months, again if the judges want a least change what the heck is taking so long?

I have been under the assumption that it is to delay the lift on the parallel suit in federal court until it is too late, but perhaps they are drawing their own maps. Maybe there are just more important things for the moment. Maybe a bit of all 3.

[Oryxslayer]

It's been 3 months, again if the judges want a least change what the heck is taking so long?

I have been under the assumption that it is to delay the lift on the parallel suit in federal court until it is too late, but perhaps they are drawing their own maps. Maybe there are just more important things for the moment. Maybe a bit of all 3.

What do you mean by delay the lift?

There is another redistricting panel that has been ordered into effect in the federals courts if the state failed to map. There was an attempt to get power into their hands because the panel might have been friendlier than the 4-3 court. This panel and the suits were put on hold when the state court took authority, but the stay on any cases against it would be likely lifted upon completion of work. Some arguments, such that the original (legislative mainly) maps violate state compactness provisions, would still apply to any new least-change plan.

At least that's the gist I got from the January reports from those who were watching Wisconsin.

[Oryxslayer]

If the WI high court redraws the maps based on the efficiency gap theory or whatever other theory it embraces, SCOTUS will bounce it. Roberts will write the opinion.

The Dems may well take over the House due to the abortion issue and Pub fecklessness in general, but the road to control will not be through Wisconsin.  It’s a dry hole.

We shall see. Anyone want to bet the other way?  

State courts ruling on state issues pertinent to things like state constitution have their own state Supreme Courts cause the national one basically cannot touch them, don't you know. Unless ISLT of course but that presently seems like a pipe dream, even with this court. So if the new majority wants to be rabid partisans just like NC judges or leading Wisconsin conservatives -including some in the former majority- they can, at least for the immensely more likely legislative redraw. Some other legislators in other states actual tried and failed to petition the national supreme court in 2021/22 in response to redistricting led by other untraditional state actors, and were ignored. The comparison to NC is good here, since these are the two states where everything has become politicized in the last 20 years, and everything is seemingly zero-sum in the pursuit of power.  

[Oryxslayer]

I also recently played around with the legislative lines. My goal in this map was "Michigan style" aka, semi-corrective mapping so that the overall result is both competitive overall and match the statewide popular vote. I think I achieved that result, to an acceptable degree even though the State Senate nesting makes things awkward on the lower district map. Throughout this process several things became apparent to be as absolutes in the event of a non-GOP biased remap, so I'll just add on to list Nyvin already started:

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1. The BOW region is the most heavily gerrymandered.  There really should be 7 assembly seats and 2 state senate seats there that are competitive, with a good number being Biden seats.  
Currently the Dems only hold the three vote sinks in the assembly, and aren't competitive in any others in the assembly or senate.

2. Sheboygan really should have a Biden assembly seat that leans D.  It's a perfect COI and fits very nicely with the rest of the map, it's just partisan interests that wants the city split up.

3. Milwaukee county is a pain in a** to draw, but anyway, 5 senate districts should be within the county, with the one in the southwest most likely competitive.  The amount of splitting the GOP did and sending the districts way out into the country is awful, although SD-5 probably flips in the next few cycles if there's no redraw.

4. SD-17 (southwest) is an obvious gerrymander along with it's accompanying assembly districts.  It should go into Dane county a bit and lean D.

5. Eau Claire should have more of it's suburbs/exurbs in with it on the senate map, and make the assembly  districts better for the D's.

6. I think Huran and River Park (Northwest) should be put together to make an assembly district that's competitive, but that might just be my opinion.  

1. There will very likely be a Biden-won 'snake-by-lake-Winnebago' State House seat mainly built from Menasha and Neenah but also some areas to their south. This district basically needs to exist so as to not strand Oshkosh and connect it with Appleton in the Senate.

2. There will be two Biden State House seats nested in Green Bay + a bit more. How competitive depends upon the goals for the region overall. They will be paired with a third marginal State House seat in the suburbs to the south of Green Bay - which are a bit larger than 1 district + what Green Bay needs - to form a highly competitive State senate seat.

3. There should be a highly competitive State House seat in Wausau City + suburbs. The way I have drawn it appears extremely competitive: it appears to have always voted for all Statewide winning candidates that I have data for (including 2022) except 2018 Gov. Of course there are other ways of drawing it.

4. There will be a highly competitive seat in the Twin Cities exurbs. The way I have drawn it seems to be the best possible lines for Democrats, but this still only gets it to Trump+200 or 0.6%. It's also a seat that's historically GOP so you need Dems to win by a bit statewide - at least until 2022 when Evers carried it - so making it min-maxed for Dems/marginality seems fine.

5. Two Blue State House seats in the Eau Claire region. How democratic in each is an open question though. Here I made sure to divide things down the middle so both are equivalent, but there are plenty of alternatives where one is safer than the other.

6. There will be Blue seat(s) in the far NW counties of Douglass, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron which doesn't vote Dem but is tied at the hip to the other three. Reminder that all the incumbents in this region right now are Republicans. The 2022 remap made the region better for the GOP, going from a marginal Biden 73rd State House seat to marginal Trump, and a 2% Trump 74th to 4% one, which made the already red but now slightly redder senate seat harder for Dems to hold.

This region is effectively a sliding scale. One one end of the scale is the pairing of Douglas and Bayfield and nothing else for one seat, and then stranding Ashland with like Sawyer and other bits. This creates one reliably Democratic seat and one that should go GOP except in a few scenarios. The other side of the scale is you split Bayfield and create two Dem seats, but both are going to be around 1% wins for Biden and be highly competitive. I opted for a middle ground, since the GOP are the incumbents, but anywhere on the scale is possible. The senate seat cannot be made Democratic without so serious gerrymandering, but you can try to keep it competitive.

7. There will be a marginal State House seat in Waukesha City: the community is larger than 1 seat, and is currently split down the middle to prevent competition. Nesting a State House seat in the city and then nibbling at the edges to satisfy surrounding districts produces a marginal GOP district. Marginal GOP though is the closest you can get to 50-50: this is true ancestral GOP turf and I'm fairly confident only Daniel Kelly has lost the district I drew - which is no more favorable for the GOP than the town overall - in the last several decades.

You will note that I didn't comment on Dane and Milwaukee. That's cause they have the most potential variation in districts, and what goals the potential remap pursues competitiveness, COIs, compactness, counties, or whatever will have a big impact on the outcomes here. So there really are no absolutes, other than the fact that Milwaukee still needs to have it's minority access districts.
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Colors shown on the House and Senate maps Below reflect 2020 Presidential partisanship. Overall Partisanship is 51-48 Biden in the State House and 17-16 Biden in the State Senate, but that fluctuates. State House seats are numbered based on nesting.









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Now for some things I particularly liked after adjusting the map around for a while. First, just to raw competitiveness of the map. DRA puts 20 State House districts inside their window of competitiveness. The map swings: Trump in 2016 wins 52 State House seats, Biden in 2020 wins 51, and the larger number of seats won by Johnson in 2016 and Baldwin in 2018 reflect their more confident statewide wins. Both close in around 60, which more reflects how Johnson was probably the high point for close-race GOP wins when it comes to the BOW region rather than any overall geographic advantage.

More specifically though, I like what happens with the 2022 data. Evers wins 54 district with his 3% win, the Dem AG wins by 1.5% and wins 52 seats,  La Follette wins by 0.3% and wins 50 seats, and then the successful GOP candidates who win by a tiny bit over 1% carry 50 seats. And using all this data suggests that the map is highly competitive even beyond the tightest districts.



The senate map looks neater from a birds eye, at least in terms of aesthetic shapes and especially around Madison. But it is less swingy overall based on results. This isn't to say their arn't marginal districts of course, cause there's quite a few depending on your definition. However, the lower seat count means that it is often just the Green Bay and the Wausau/Steven's Point districts that changes alignments in a bunch of tight races like 2022.

Another thing I specifically like is the Milwaukee region. Milwaukee County + Ozaukee County + the Menomonee Falls square from Waukesha county is a clean 6 Senate seat/18 State House seat grouping. Obviously I pair one of these senate seats with regions outside the grouping, and one with regions inside the grouping, but this is more to not strand the 4th Biden/Competitive House seat that should be drawn somewhere between Kenosha and Racine. Also makes the senate seats in WOW group better. The main feature of this grouping is allowing for some very neat and sensible distracts to be drawn in the inner NE and western Milwaukee County suburbs.

Obviously, in relation to the previous point, The obvious criticism would be what I happens to Menomonie Falls. But I should caution that this was done purely out of the desire to create a new minority seat out of district 7. If I decided to not follow this access line, then nothing in the big picture changes. Menomonee + surplus precincts from NW Milwaukee still votes Blue, just a bit closer to the margins. The only outcome that shifts is now it is electing a Democrat whose the candidate of choice for White primary voters and the overall minority-district count stays the same from the current map, whereas the cutup allows for an African American. Still would get paired in Senate 4 as the white block to avoid minority packing. Something like this:

[Oryxslayer]

I also recently played around with the legislative lines.

Incredible work as usual - when's your blog coming? - but would you explain the meaning of "declination" in your last graph? Can't tell whether it's the gradient of the LBF or some sort of angular measure.

It's just pulled straight from DRA, so I can't speak to it. Graphs like these were used often in the anti-gerrymandering pieces over a year ago, especially  by Sam Wang's PEC-affiliated outlets, and is similarly part of the evidence used in redistricting lawsuits. That's why DRA added it, cause a competitive map with many districts should look close to the linear line, with obvious shifts to the left or right of the chart based on the overall states lean. A Gerrymandered chart looks very obvious, arrows added for visual effect:


Current WI House



TX House



GA Senate



MD Senate

[Oryxslayer]

The new lawsuit against the legislative maps uses DRA screenshots, so we have a clear idea of their gerrymadering allegations against the map, you can read it here.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1687523198965862409?t=fHfHq6QcstpfqA8oVD...

Congressional suit is apparently also forthcoming,  they are probably just seeing how immediate the legislative suit will get taken up.

[Oryxslayer]

Legislative redistricting case to be heard November 21st, just in time for Turkey. Lets ee if the GOP lets things progress in usual and orderly fashion.

[Oryxslayer]

snip

AKA it's not happening cause the holiday

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1726976563051425922?t=4XEIWvT-fg1x8WQfjpRp4w&...

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1726988759349256546?t=ooe_HeW0AGxnTcMxAz9J7w&...

https://twitter.com/ET_Californian/status/1726979467422368133?t=yIAmZKRvWtbL0RJb...

Live updates

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1738305271427104780?t=2FhQrjDHqp52N4yfZm7mq...

Incoming soft Dem gerrymander that corrects for partisan sorting. See the past few pages where we explored these possibilities.

And remember,  if you want to create hypothetical maps, 3 state house seats nest inside one senate seat.  So the "geographical corrections" have to function on both levels.

[Oryxslayer]

Yay, *finally*.

While geography definitely favors Rs, I don't think the geography bias is as bad at the State Legislature level because smaller cities like Eau Claire, La Crosse, Appleton, and Green Bay can sustain D-leaning seats on their own. Dems will honestly probably gain most of their seats on the redrawn fair map out of these sorts of places.

The Congressional level, 8 seats is just an unfortunate number for Dems since both metro Madison and Milwaukee Dem sinks are sort of "natural" seats, and there aren't large enough D cities outside of those to sustain other D leaning CDs.

Just FYI for you and everyone else, maybe not needed in this response but important for the future, is this has 0 effect on the congressional plans at the moment. The case is solely the legislative maps. Maybe there will be a followup, but it could only happen for 2026 given the present timeframe.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/davesredist/status/1740154004007784594?t=9rmmomCEYVO4ueXcVFh...

2022 data has been added to dra for community use, accelerated in light of the court ruling.

Everyone update their msps!

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1745950460467356056?t=nYlRb6HS72JbgpDH6J3vNA...

Here are said maps. Hey, that Dane setup is familiar, but I  mean, we all know something like that was desired given the push for corrective gerrymandering and inspirations from Michigan.  However,  the plaintiffs didn't do enough in the Milwaukee region imo, especially when things could be much neater. Also just in general there could have been a better respecting of locality lines.  They also didn't try any tricks of numbering to get enough senate seats up in 2024 for a potential flip.

Dra links to senate and house.

[Oryxslayer]

Here is the dem maps. Some interesting decisions, most notably in the Kenosha/Racine area.

https://twitter.com/SenHesselbein/status/1745930215153377390?t=2ahRpZU4g6vDjukxy...

[Oryxslayer]

Here's my personal final plan, for comparison. So you can see what I personally think isn't being appropriately pursued, and what is

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/lawrencegandrea/status/1747407426016465259?t=6DQrZ7d3_vlmFeu...

Here it comes...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1753227375637131680?t=qfT2uEwks9Wk53ayCb61sA&am...

They find serious flaws with the GOP legislative leaders submitted maps, and call the 4 other Dem/Plaintiffs plans virtually indistinguishable.

[Oryxslayer]

Probably the grounds for a Evers veto, if he goes that route.
https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1757487467395944739?s=46

Special elections are held under old lines all the time in between redistricting years, it happened for a couple races in NY in 2022 and TX-34 special is probably the most notable. IMO all this posturing from Dems seems unnecessary, the maps the court produces aren't going to that much different from Evers in the end. Dragging this out further is just less time Dems have to hit the ground running on flipping seats.

This is quite literally standard practice since you are fulfilling a unfinished term that was elected under old lines. People noted in 2022 when Nebraska used their new lines for the NE-01 special election that the GOP probably would have sucessfully challenged the results if they had a upset loss.