CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Torie]

How do you do a recount if the envelops have been separated from the ballots as to which objections were made as to which there is no record?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How do you do a recount if the envelops have been separated from the ballots as to which objections were made as to which there is no record?

You recount everything and hope that those votes don't decide the election.  It's not ideal, but it's far fairer than disenfranchising the entire district by tossing the results and holding a special or risking an election being decided by double-counted votes.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1334524244324020226

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1334524244324020226

We get it Max, you're running for Mayor

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1334524244324020226

It's clear at this point that the BLM protests/riots from over the summer had an effect on the election, almost as much as the pandemic itself-and they helped cost Rose and several other downballot Democrats reelection.

[Torie]

How do you do a recount if the envelops have been separated from the ballots as to which objections were made as to which there is no record?

You recount everything and hope that those votes don't decide the election.  It's not ideal, but it's far fairer than disenfranchising the entire district by tossing the results and holding a special or risking an election being decided by double-counted votes.

OK, I absolutely disagree, but that is OK. Counting some votes that may well not be legal votes, due to the BOE's not following the law, which would have created the requisite paper trail, is a fatal poison pill to me. We shall see what this judge does, and the higher NY courts.

Come to think of it, if there were a recount of the ballots where there is a paper trail (assuming that is possible), and the outcome changed enough that there were only a remote possibility that the remaining ballots would change the result, that might be appropriate. I tend to doubt that is possible however.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1334537707205189632

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1334524244324020226

It's clear at this point that the BLM protests/riots from over the summer had an effect on the election, almost as much as the pandemic itself-and they helped cost Rose and several other downballot Democrats reelection.

I don't think it's clear the protests/"riots" themselves made a difference though? Maybe what came out of it ("Defund the Police") but there doesn't seem much proof considering BLM itself was very popular in the exits.

[StateBoiler]

Beyond which, while I realize that you really want to pretend Hart's 26 vote gain in Scott County was some sort of controversial/sketchy scandal, it isn't.  The fact that a Democrat gained votes in a recount does not mean you can just ignore the results of that county's recount.

This is an example though of why the Gore recount was wrong-minded. You have to have the same rules and same laws anywhere across where an election is conducted. If you have a recount, you can't pick and choose a few localized areas where the recount takes place. It needs to be "recount everywhere". You also don't get to pick and choose the laws for recounts based on where you're at. There needs to be one universal law set for where an election is conducted. If you want to say what Scott County did was fine, then every single other county in the district should be required to do the same thing, and only then would you have a valid election result. If Scott County wants to say their version of the recount is more accurate and not the existing law, I would ask Scott County to cite where in the Iowa State Constitution does it declare a county has the right to overrule the state's statutes made by the state legislature.

[UncleSam]

Honestly if an election is certified within .1% then there should just be an automatic redo. We should just admit that election administration in this country isn't perfect and that sometimes we will just never know who the true winner was.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Honestly if an election is certified within .1% then there should just be an automatic redo. We should just admit that election administration in this country isn't perfect and that sometimes we will just never know who the true winner was.

With all due respect, this is a terrible idea.  

[lfromnj]

Honestly if an election is certified within .1% then there should just be an automatic redo. We should just admit that election administration in this country isn't perfect and that sometimes we will just never know who the true winner was.

With all due respect, this is a terrible idea.  

^ Then you just have recounts for when the election is within .11 etc.

[UncleSam]

I'm not saying it's perfect but can anyone honestly tell me that they know for sure what the result was in IA-2 or NY-22?

Ideally elections are decided by enough votes that we know for sure who won, but sometimes they're not. In those cases, we should have some mechanism for admitting that we don't know who won rather than devolving into these insane legal battles.

An alternative is that both get half the term and the certified winner gets to select which half they want.

[MT Treasurer]

Should Democrats use IA-2 as a bargaining chip? They will agree to seat Miller-Meeks in the house in exchange for policy concessions.

It's total no sense.

Hart lost because she got less votes than her opponent, it's a fact, there is nothing to negotiate on that. Policies are bargainable democracy isn't.

If Pelosi decides to seat Hart despite the results being validated by the state board (which includes two democrats), House democrats will have to pay the political price for it in two years.

No one will remember this in 2022. (For the record, I don't think Hart should be seated.) It's not like Republicans suffered for what Mark Harris did in 2018.

I mean, yeah, I agree in the sense that Hart is going to get blown out of the water in 2022 regardless of whether she chooses to go down that road or not (assuming the current MM +6 result is overturned and she is seated).

[2016]

According to the New York State Board of Elections Excel Sheets

NY-1

Lee Zeldin (R) 199,763  53,92 %

Nancy Goroff (D) 157,484  46,08 %

NY-2

Andrew Garbarino (R) 177,353  49,47 %

Jackie Gordon (D) 154,123  42,99 %

Harry Burger (G) 3,446  0,96 %

This should now be enough for the AP to call both Races.

Notable

Donald Trump lost Suffolk County to Joe Biden by about 11,000 Votes 351,643 to 340,940

[KaiserDave]

I'm honestly shocked Zeldin did that badly

[Xing]

Should Democrats use IA-2 as a bargaining chip? They will agree to seat Miller-Meeks in the house in exchange for policy concessions.

It's total no sense.

Hart lost because she got less votes than her opponent, it's a fact, there is nothing to negotiate on that. Policies are bargainable democracy isn't.

If Pelosi decides to seat Hart despite the results being validated by the state board (which includes two democrats), House democrats will have to pay the political price for it in two years.

No one will remember this in 2022. (For the record, I don't think Hart should be seated.) It's not like Republicans suffered for what Mark Harris did in 2018.

I mean, yeah, I agree in the sense that Hart is going to get blown out of the water in 2022 regardless of whether she chooses to go down that road or not (assuming the current MM +6 result is overturned and she is seated).

I meant that this isn't going to have a bit impact on the 2022 environment as a whole. If Democrats have a very bad night, it won't be because of what happened in a single House race almost two years ago.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm not saying it's perfect but can anyone honestly tell me that they know for sure what the result was in IA-2 or NY-22?

Ideally elections are decided by enough votes that we know for sure who won, but sometimes they're not. In those cases, we should have some mechanism for admitting that we don't know who won rather than devolving into these insane legal battles.

An alternative is that both get half the term and the certified winner gets to select which half they want.

There are no perfect solutions.  If Rita Hart has no legitimate grounds to contest her defeat, then she lost and that's true whether she lost by 6 votes or 60,000 votes.

Of course given the margin of error in the counting she might well have actually won, but both sides had the same rules going in.

[MT Treasurer]

I meant that this isn't going to have a bit impact on the 2022 environment as a whole. If Democrats have a very bad night, it won't be because of what happened in a single House race almost two years ago.

Oh, obviously. I think Frenchrepublican meant Democratic prospects of holding IA-2 in 2022 by "House democrats will have to pay the political price for it in two years" rather than the impact of that race on the overall environment.

[2016]

I'm honestly shocked Zeldin did that badly

It's not when you consider that Trump lost Suffolk County 10,703 Votes to Joe Biden.

[KaiserDave]

I'm honestly shocked Zeldin did that badly

It's not when you consider that Trump lost Suffolk County 10,703 Votes to Joe Biden.

Trump LOST Suffolk? Woweee. WOW.

[VAR]

Trump narrowly won Suffolk, no?

[KaiserDave]

Trump narrowly won Suffolk, no?

If Trump lost Suffolk county, I feel really bad for the folks at the NY GOP.

You lost Suffolk county, howwww??? Lmao

[bandg]

According to the New York State Board of Elections Excel Sheets

NY-1

Lee Zeldin (R) 199,763  53,92 %

Nancy Goroff (D) 157,484  46,08 %

NY-2

Andrew Garbarino (R) 177,353  49,47 %

Jackie Gordon (D) 154,123  42,99 %

Harry Burger (G) 3,446  0,96 %

This should now be enough for the AP to call both Races.

Notable

Donald Trump lost Suffolk County to Joe Biden by about 11,000 Votes 351,643 to 340,940

Suffolk was close, but Trump won it narrowly 375,821 to 368,000. Above poster wasn't including the Conservative and Working Families ballot lines. 

[KaiserDave]

Antonio Delgado won by 11. UTAD was never going to lose.