Final Pew Poll: Obama +3

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/04/obama-gains-edge-in-campaigns-final-days/

Dominating.

[Yank2133]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3ALwKeSEYs

[evan83]

So assuming for a second these numbers are legit, then that means Hurricane Sandy was indeed the "October surprise."  That's one for the history books, folks.

Unbelievable.   

[Skill and Chance]

It almost exactly matches their 2004 final: Bush 51 Kerry 48 vs. Obama 50 Romney 47

[Yank2133]

It is scary how much this election resembles 2004, check out the strong support numbers.

2004

Bush-39
Kerry-32

2012

Obama-39
Romney-33

[Skill and Chance]

It is scary how much this election resembles 2004, check out the strong support numbers.

2004

Bush-39
Kerry-32

2012

Obama-39
Romney-33

Apparently the entire change in Obama's national margin is the Northeast moving from O+9 pre-hurricane to O+21 post-hurricane.  Wouldn't it be something if Obama has an electoral college problem now?  Hopefully for him, PA is in Pew's Northeast...

EDIT: More info: Obama +2 in the swing states vs. +3 nationally.  The Midwest region tightened from O 51/R 45 to O 48/R 44 since their last poll.  MOE is probably huge on both of these.  The Northeast swing should be statistically significant, however.

[Ty440]

WOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

[bedstuy]

Interesting because the last Pew poll in 2008 hit the popular vote dead on.

Also, interesting that Obama is ahead 7 with the registered voters.  Sort of contradicts the skewed poll conspiracy theory.  Pew is already factoring in a depressed dem turnout and coming up with Obama up by 3. 

[Cliffy]

In the last month Their poll has moved 8 or 9 points in sample from R to D

[dspNY]

Pew's track record is unbelievably strong...they have put out a final poll every Presidential election and called the winner correctly every time except for 1976 (they had Ford ahead 49-48 and Carter won)

[DemPGH]

Obama's recovery in the Pew poll is nice because I think they were among the first to show that he took a real hit in the days after that first debate.

[J. J.]

Pew's track record is unbelievably strong...they have put out a final poll every Presidential election and called the winner correctly every time except for 1976 (they had Ford ahead 49-48 and Carter won)

They were off, in the popular vote in 2000, giving Bush a 2 point lead.  2004 and 2008 were okay. 

[Yank2133]

Pew's track record is unbelievably strong...they have put out a final poll every Presidential election and called the winner correctly every time except for 1976 (they had Ford ahead 49-48 and Carter won)

They were off, in the popular vote in 2000, giving Bush a 2 point lead.  2004 and 2008 were okay. 

They were more then ok in 2004 and 2008 in terms of their final results.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In the last month Their poll has moved 8 or 9 points in sample from R to D

...which simply means that more people are identifying as D now than they did then -- which is no doubt why Obama has moved ahead in the polls.  One or two polls might be an exception, but almost ALL of them are showing this trend.  Party ID is not an immutable trait.  It's a self-identification based on a respondent's political leanings AT THAT MOMENT.

This is how random samples of voters -- many such samples by now -- are answering.  What is so difficult to understand about that?

[J. J.]

Pew's track record is unbelievably strong...they have put out a final poll every Presidential election and called the winner correctly every time except for 1976 (they had Ford ahead 49-48 and Carter won)

They were off, in the popular vote in 2000, giving Bush a 2 point lead.  2004 and 2008 were okay. 

They were more then ok in 2004 and 2008 in terms of their final results.

They were okay in both.  They missed it in the admittedly close 2000 election. 

[Eraserhead]

Pew's track record is unbelievably strong...they have put out a final poll every Presidential election and called the winner correctly every time except for 1976 (they had Ford ahead 49-48 and Carter won)

They were off, in the popular vote in 2000, giving Bush a 2 point lead.  2004 and 2008 were okay. 

They were more then ok in 2004 and 2008 in terms of their final results.

They were okay in both.  They missed it in the admittedly close 2000 election. 

They were only "okay" because Obama is +3 right now. If Romney was +3, you'd be drooling over their final polls from past years.