Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[Storr]

So is it Trump+3 or Trump+7 for Boebert’s district?

I think Ethan C7 is right and Georgia Election Geek is wrong. +7 Trump in Boebert's seat.

It was 52-46% (+6 Trump) in 2020 with the current boundaries. So if true, not much has changed when it comes to the overall political lean of the district.

[Oryxslayer]

Some rough GIS work on my part puts 3 around 52.2% Trump, 45.4% Biden. Arguably the biggest effect is putting a bunch of Boebert's Pueblo-based challengers in a different seat.

[Nyvin]

Given trends the GOP might have to worry more about 5 than 3 later on. 5 is Dem trending but might not be competitive until 2028.

Agreed - CO-5 could easily be competitive by 2026 or 2028,  that was pretty much inevitable in any map.

Also - Looks like CO-7 is actually going to be the open seat next cycle?

[Oryxslayer]

Given trends the GOP might have to worry more about 5 than 3 later on. 5 is Dem trending but might not be competitive until 2028.

Agreed - CO-5 could easily be competitive by 2026 or 2028,  that was pretty much inevitable in any map.

The fifth was always going to be just Colorado Springs and her environs, so the seat becomes competitive under any map the moment D's make El Paso county competitive.

[Storr]

Apparently the new 8 (old 7) is an attempt to get a Hispanic Rep using Greeley and Adams to get a seat >30% Hispanic under the current data. Honestly, may be a better option than the Aurora-Denver minority seat some proposed, but probably less effective than the Adam-Denver one.

edit: tweet snip

Boeberts seat got bluer.

Interestingly, the 4th would (barely) be the most Hispanic district, slightly ahead of the 8th at 31.0% to 29.9%.
https://redistricting.colorado.gov/content/2021-redistricting-maps (under Attachment B)

[Devils30]

One on hand, would have been nice for a 6-2 map but Dems have a shot at new seat there that is more Dem than the country as a whole.

[Stuart98]

The new 7th is gross, probably going to get the most criticism. Don't think people in Pueblo are going to be happy about this map. I saw some people asking for a Weld-Adams Hispanic opportunity district so the 8th is gonna make them happy. On the other hand, people asking for Douglas to be separated from the rurals or for there not to be one district for all of east Colorado aren't gonna be happy.

It's just generally weird how ugly the lines here are.

[Meatball Ron]

Given trends the GOP might have to worry more about 5 than 3 later on. 5 is Dem trending but might not be competitive until 2028.

Agreed - CO-5 could easily be competitive by 2026 or 2028,  that was pretty much inevitable in any map.

Also - Looks like CO-7 is actually going to be the open seat next cycle?

In theory, yes; CO-08 is more similar to Perlmutter's current seat than CO-07. But I am interested to see which one he runs in. CO-08 is 30% Hispanic and was apparently designed to help elect a Hispanic member from CO. I assume Perlmutter will want to run in the less competitive seat (08), but he could selflessly decide to run in 07 (opening up 08 to elect a Hispanic member, and putting a "strong incumbent" - himself - in the more competitive seat)

[Storr]

The new 7th is gross, probably going to get the most criticism. Don't think people in Pueblo are going to be happy about this map. I saw some people asking for a Weld-Adams Hispanic opportunity district so the 8th is gonna make them happy. On the other hand, people asking for Douglas to be separated from the rurals or for there not to be one district for all of east Colorado aren't gonna be happy.

It's just generally weird how ugly the lines here are.

Yeah. For example, they could literally have put all of the 1st in Denver, but decided to instead include 7,597 random people from Arapahoe County. There are so many county splits. Why are Boulder, Weld, Denver, Douglas, and Adams Counties all split among three different districts?

[Nyvin]

Given trends the GOP might have to worry more about 5 than 3 later on. 5 is Dem trending but might not be competitive until 2028.

Agreed - CO-5 could easily be competitive by 2026 or 2028,  that was pretty much inevitable in any map.

Also - Looks like CO-7 is actually going to be the open seat next cycle?

In theory, yes; CO-08 is more similar to Perlmutter's current seat than CO-07. But I am interested to see which one he runs in. CO-08 is 30% Hispanic and was apparently designed to help elect a Hispanic member from CO. I assume Perlmutter will want to run in the less competitive seat (08), but he could selflessly decide to run in 07 (opening up 08 to elect a Hispanic member, and putting a "strong incumbent" - himself - in the more competitive seat)

This would be ideal for Democrats both ways - boost hispanic turnout in CO-8 possibly and have the incumbent in the more competitive CO-7 district.

[Meatball Ron]

Given trends the GOP might have to worry more about 5 than 3 later on. 5 is Dem trending but might not be competitive until 2028.

Agreed - CO-5 could easily be competitive by 2026 or 2028,  that was pretty much inevitable in any map.

Also - Looks like CO-7 is actually going to be the open seat next cycle?

In theory, yes; CO-08 is more similar to Perlmutter's current seat than CO-07. But I am interested to see which one he runs in. CO-08 is 30% Hispanic and was apparently designed to help elect a Hispanic member from CO. I assume Perlmutter will want to run in the less competitive seat (08), but he could selflessly decide to run in 07 (opening up 08 to elect a Hispanic member, and putting a "strong incumbent" - himself - in the more competitive seat)

This would be ideal for Democrats both ways - boost hispanic turnout in CO-8 possibly and have the incumbent in the more competitive CO-7 district.

Agreed. But I assume Perlmutter will just want to run in the easier district (CO-08), at the expense of electing a Hispanic rep / making CO-07 easier to hold.

Any idea which one he actually lives in?

Edit: he lives in the new CO-07 but just 50 yards from the CO-08 border https://twitter.com/JesseAPaul/status/1407815467322941441?s=20

[cvparty]

The new 7th is gross, probably going to get the most criticism. Don't think people in Pueblo are going to be happy about this map. I saw some people asking for a Weld-Adams Hispanic opportunity district so the 8th is gonna make them happy. On the other hand, people asking for Douglas to be separated from the rurals or for there not to be one district for all of east Colorado aren't gonna be happy.

It's just generally weird how ugly the lines here are.

Yeah. For example, they could literally have put all of the 1st in Denver, but decided to instead include 7,597 random people from Arapahoe County. There are so many county splits. Why are Boulder, Weld, Denver, Douglas, and Adams Counties all split among three different districts?

those are just enclaves of denver

[Gass3268]

Can anyone explain why it's necessary for the 4th to come in between the 1st and 8th? Seems odd.

[cvparty]

Here's the preliminary map on DRA if anyone wants to play around with it:

[Nyvin]

Can anyone explain why it's necessary for the 4th to come in between the 1st and 8th? Seems odd.

Looks like they used I-76 for the boundary of CO-8 and Denver as boundary for CO-1, and CO-4 got whatever was inbetween.

[Nyvin]

Gotta say, they nailed all seven of these (even the Aurora one).   Looks like the commentary on the website HEAVILY influenced the map making.

So I was reading some of the comments on the public input forum here -

https://redistricting.colorado.gov/public_comments

Seems like a lot of comments (a majority?) focus on a few issues:

1. Routt and Grand counties get mentioned a lot (especially Grand county for whatever reason), mostly that they don't want to be part of the Front Range districts. 

2. Ski Resort communities wanting to be kept together (also a lot of mentions about not being put in districts with the Front Range area, but mostly they want to be kept intact).

3. Hispanic areas in the south, including Pueblo, being kept intact to maximize hispanic influence

4. El Paso being kept intact, but also there's an active group on the board "True Southern Colorado" that wants El Paso split north/south with other counties to form two districts.

5. A few mentions of keeping the city of Aurora intact

6. Virtually nothing about Denver aside from "keep us out of that district!" lol

edit - forgot this one - 7. Lots of people from Longmont want to be in the district with Boulder and the rest of Larimer (not the eastern farmland district in other words)

[Calthrina950]

This is an interesting map. I'm not sure why they gave part of El Paso County to Buck's district, rather than keeping the whole county intact as its own congressional district. But otherwise, the map makes sense, and pretty closely correlates with what I expected. This would be a 5 D-3 R map in most years, assuming that Republicans don't reverse the Democratic rise in Douglas County.

[Oryxslayer]

This is an interesting map. I'm not sure why they gave part of El Paso County to Buck's district, rather than keeping the whole county intact as its own congressional district. But otherwise, the map makes sense, and pretty closely correlates with what I expected. This would be a 5 D-3 R map in most years, assuming that Republicans don't reverse the Democratic rise in Douglas County.

The El Paso cut is only done for Pop reasons, CD5 remains nested in the county. DRA's 2019 estimates have the county just on the edge of 1 cd, but given growth it likely surpassed its allotment in their internal data. It and the rest of the front range is also likely to benefit from the final census numbers, at the expense of the south of the state and Pueblo region, given the expectation of a rural Hispanic undercount.

[Minnesota Mike]

This is an interesting map. I'm not sure why they gave part of El Paso County to Buck's district, rather than keeping the whole county intact as its own congressional district. But otherwise, the map makes sense, and pretty closely correlates with what I expected. This would be a 5 D-3 R map in most years, assuming that Republicans don't reverse the Democratic rise in Douglas County.

Congressional Districts have to be as close to equal population as possible. There is only a variation of 2 people between any of the districts.

BTW the portion of El Paso county in CO-04 may be quite a bit of land but it only contains 2,156 people.

[Stuart98]

Took another stab at Colorado:


Pretty unorthodox since it splits El Paso, but I think it makes sense?

* 3 districts that are at least 30% hispanic by total population, 2 districts that are at least 25% hispanic by CVAP.
* A majmin district by cvap in metro Denver
* 4-4 in 2020 (and probably every other election in the past decade), like my previous map, though with a bit more dummymander risk.

President 2020 numbers:

[Minnesota Mike]

Took another stab at Colorado:


Pretty unorthodox since it splits El Paso, but I think it makes sense?

* 3 districts that are at least 30% hispanic by total population, 2 districts that are at least 25% hispanic by CVAP.
* A majmin district by cvap in metro Denver
* 4-4 in 2020 (and probably every other election in the past decade), like my previous map, though with a bit more dummymander risk.

President 2020 numbers:

That's nice but it is very likely we only get minor tweaks to the plan that was revealed today.  I would be stunned if after putting a plan out today, holding meetings across the state on it they would just start over with something completely different.

[Lognog]

Honestly, by the next democracy wave year we could see a 7-1 dem delegation. Boebert may end up being a disaster. Imagine if AOC was in NY-03 and how on edge that would make dems. Not that they are equal as far as sanity goes, but they are equal when talking about underperforming the top of the ticket. Trouble is for the GOP is how fast CO is going left. El Paso county is another ticking time bomb for the GOP. If they flip, Buck would be the sole R rep.

Btw this isn't me being some "dem hack" people will call me a "doomer" if they Hear me talking about states like Iowa. This post is specific to Colorado

[Oryxslayer]

The only way I think we see major tweets - rather than the minor "put X town in Y seat and remove Z town from Y seat" - is if said tweaks increase COI or the stated goals of each present seat. The one example that immediately comes to mind is Denver Hispanics could want in on CD8, and would lead to major ripples across the metro. CD1 would probably grab from non-Aurora CD6, CD6 from CD4, CD4 from CD7 and 8, and CD7 from whiter suburbs of CD8.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1407828715690770440

WTF?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is an interesting map. I'm not sure why they gave part of El Paso County to Buck's district, rather than keeping the whole county intact as its own congressional district. But otherwise, the map makes sense, and pretty closely correlates with what I expected. This would be a 5 D-3 R map in most years, assuming that Republicans don't reverse the Democratic rise in Douglas County.

The El Paso cut is only done for Pop reasons, CD5 remains nested in the county. DRA's 2019 estimates have the county just on the edge of 1 cd, but given growth it likely surpassed its allotment in their internal data. It and the rest of the front range is also likely to benefit from the final census numbers, at the expense of the south of the state and Pueblo region, given the expectation of a rural Hispanic undercount.

I would like an all-El Paso CD, but seems the county grew too much for that to be possible.