UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[TheTide]

How plausible is it that Tory loyalists are temporarily switching to Lib Dem (or just staying home) just for this specific by-election, purely as a protest against Boris damaging the party's overall prospects?  I would imagine that even if Boris is still leading the party into the next GE they'll all fall back in line (because GEs actually matter), but for now?

Very plausible.  Even in 1997 the Tories won Christchurch back.

The other epic Lib Dem win of 1993 - Newbury - saw a gradual unwinding until David Rendel lost in 2005 (a good year for the Lib Dems).

One of the following three things happen after the Lib Dems get an epic by-election win - 1. The Christchurch example - they lose it at the next GE (obviously this is more common in the seats that they were previously further behind in), 2. The Newbury example - they hold onto it for one or two GEs (generally with a diminishing majority) - often at the GE after they lose it their vote has a significant decline out of sync with what's going on in the rest of the country, 3. The Bermondsey example - it marks the start of a long period of ascendancy in the seat - this is usually with the help of a strong, high profile or locally popular personality.

[TheTide]

Wild unverified rumour time?

Tiverton could be better than expected for the Liberals.

There's a story in the i suggesting that the Tories may have pulled out as of early this morning.

[TheTide]

Turnout in Wakefield is 39.1%.

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Tiverton and Honiton turnout is 52.0%.

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Seen a claim that the Tory vote is holding up in T and H, but doesn't dispute that they are going to lose. Given that they got 60% last time, it has fallen at least 15% if they have indeed lost. Hardly holding up.

[TheTide]

There we go.

https://twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1540143256704585729?s=20&t=lpsXHg0td...

[TheTide]

There's a polling phenomenon that was once prevalent but seems to have died a death: the Lib Dems getting a major surge after an upset by-election win. Didn't happen after North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham etc and presumably won't happen now. Another one is the party conference bounce. Neither by-elections nor party conferences are treated as the big deal by the media that they used to be so this perhaps isn't surprising.

[TheTide]

Chris Matheson (Labour) is resigning as MP for the City of Chester over sexual misconduct in Parliament, thus a by-election is to be held.

[TheTide]

They'll be some demand for a West Suffolk by-election now that the Honourable Member is going into the jungle.

[TheTide]

They'll be some demand for a West Suffolk by-election now that the Honourable Member is going into the jungle.

The current member for Mid Bedfordshire also did this and that wasn't the end of her career (and in the 2000s, the MP for Bethnal Green went into the Big Brother House, and he continued his ... Political career afterwards).

Hancock seems to have lost the confidence of his local party (not that they can directly trigger a by-election) though, with the Chair making a point of putting disparaging comments on the record.

[TheTide]

Yes, I’m not particularly surprised Reform UK didn’t do better but it increases my scepticism about their higher polling numbers.  The same goes for the Greens, and I’d think it’s a better constituency for them than for Reform UK.

A pretty good result for Labour given the cause of the by-election.  And Lub Dems finally save their deposit in a by-election this Parliament which they don’t win.

I'd like to see how Reform would do in a by-election in one of those long-term Tory strongholds (one that they held throughout the 1997-2010 period) that isn't one of those Remainy Lib Dem targets. If they are polling around 5% nationally then I have a feeling that their patterns of support would look surprisingly similar to those of the Referendum Party in 1997. That is, disgruntled blue-blooded Tories in the South and East. If Farage returned as leader then it might be a different matter.

[TheTide]

Stretford and Urmston today. Exciting.

[TheTide]

Maybe you need a repeat of Carswell or Reckless?

Cameron offering a referendum was arguably the trigger for the UKIP surge, ironic as that may be. The Carswell and Reckless defections were after the UKIP 'victory' in the European elections (which probably has to be considered UKIP's peak).

[TheTide]

Still miss the weekly round-up of council byelections on here, ngl.

We could always try to start one again.

On the Parliamentary front, West Lancashire has just six candidates:

Jo Barton (Lib Dem)
Peter Cranie (Green)
Ruth Ashley Dalton (Lab)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Jonathan Kay (Reform UK)
Mike Prendergast (Con)

Cranie is a name that I first came across when Nick Griffin (ugh) won a seat in the 2009 European Elections.

[TheTide]

Will Hope break 1% since there’s only one other frivolous candidate in the race?

Arguably four of the six.

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Won't happen, but fingers are crossed Zahawi's issues force a Stratford on Avon by election so we can see incredibly laboured bits on Shakespeare from pundits eager to show off.

It would be a Comedy of Errors.

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West Lancashire is today, not that I knew until I just saw a single mention of it on Twitter.

[TheTide]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1641353111829721089

Rutherglen and Hamilton West. The same part of the world where a certain by-election took place in 1967.

[TheTide]

At the moment there is some (probably baseless) speculation that he will contest Mid Beds. In his statement he does say that he's leaving Parliament "at least for now".

[TheTide]

Thinking in fantastical terms, what number would it have to get to in order to become so farcical that a general election would have to be called? Not quite 'have to be', but a point at which the pressure would be immense.

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Can someone give a Lean Likely Tossup type analysis of the By elections and when will they be?

After some quick research it seems like the 3 are

Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Lean CONSERVATIVE (SAFE Swing to LAB)

I would lean towards telling you to piss off from this thread.

[TheTide]

She's really not that bright, all told. A u-turn on this u-turn has to be a possibility.

Her reaction (as she was sitting in the audience) to BoJo's withdrawal speech in 2016 is probably testament to that. She seemed genuinely shocked when he explicitly said he wasn't standing, even though anyone with half a wit about them could tell that that was what the speech was leading up to.

[TheTide]

The Lib Dem candidate in Somerton & Frome spoke to the Guardian.  It did not go well.

About 17 minutes in is where the car crash starts...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/audio/2023/jun/22/fromes-byelection-battle-head-or-heart-politics-weekly-uk

[TheTide]

Isn't Danny Boy Beales a character in EastEnders? 

[TheTide]

The other genre of safe (?) tory seats in this election may be Scotland: assuming the SNP has not recovered they may be too wounded to regain the borders seats/moray.

One thing that hasn't been commented on much regarding the scandals in Scotland is that Labour and the unionist parties could use it to push the "Time for a Change" message. The Profumo scandal of 1963, the Tory scandals of the 1990s and the expenses' scandal of 2009 (all, of course, occurring towards the end of long-running governments - scandals often being the sign of a declining government) at least provided some help in the opposition parties doing this. Of course this not being a Holyrood election complicates matters somewhat, but that may actually help them further (as in "don't worry, the Scottish government won't change, you can just send them a message").