WV-PPP (2018 SEN): Manchin leads McKinley by 10

[SATW]

I'd like to see him polled against Alexander Mooney or Patrick Morrisey.

McKinley or Morrisey would be stronger.  McKinley has been in Congress for sometime, although Morrisey has won statewide before (and alongside Manchin).  I don't think Mooney will run, maybe a few cycles later when there's an open seat and he gains experience in the House.

Mooney won statewide GOP Chair in Maryland. He knows how to run a statewide campaign and staff it properly. He's younger than either of them, more energetic, and he is pretty moderate. Two terms in the House is quite enough experience for the Senate, in my opinion. In 2020, an incumbent Republican Governor and Senator are running for re-election. Should he hope to run for Governor in 2024, Senator in 2024/2026(if Capito retires after two terms/McKinley retires after one term), Governor in 2028, or Senator in 2018? Pretty obvious choice to me.

Carpetbagger Mooney is the one person Manchin would have a chance at beating.

Are you just a Democratic hack?

Mooney is actually well liked and pretty young. Just because he moved states doesn't make him an automatic HP. Mooney is by far the most moderate of the three. IIRC, all three Republican Representatives are in the Mainstreet Partnership, so they probably won't be any worse than Capito. Capito and Manchin are two of the best Senators in the Senate, IMO.

Unlike you, I actually know WV politics, as I often go down to Wheeling and Morgantown for Business. So, here are some facts for you:

1. Mooney is not moderate. He is a tea partier and supported Cruz.
2. McKinley is BY FAR the most moderate member of the WV House delegation. Has had a record of supporting some pro-union initiatives and, since 2012 (he was Tea Party from 2010-2012), has towed the establishment line.
3. Mooney is starting to become somewhat liked but doesn't change the fact that he did infact carpet bag to the state.

[SATW]

In terms of the Manchin race:

- McKinley is almost 70. He didn't run for Gov in 2016, I doubt he runs for Senate in 2018.
- More likely candidates include Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-WV-03) and/or WV AG Patrick Morrissey.
- I've heard that Morrissey is eyeing this race, so I can see Jenkins just running for re-election while Morrissey guns for Manchin.

I think Alex Mooney stays in the House a few more terms (and He'll increase his margin of victory by a decent amount each time). Maybe in a few cycles he'll run for Sen or Gov, but not now. He's also facing primary challengers this go around, so we'll see how he fares in their primaries on May 10th (he should win easily, but I want to see if it's by a underwhelming margin or not).

I think Manchin will struggle in a 2018 senate campaign. He'll start off with moderate to strong leads between 7%-10%, and it'll slowly become competitive.

[SATW]

Totally forgot that WV is expected to lost a seat. In that case, things do get more complicated for Mooney. If McKinley retires, there'll be a tough competition for the newly drawn WV-01 (where he will likely wind up due to his home being in Eastern Panhandle).

McKinley's son, David Jr,  would be a candidate to watch if McKinley retires closer to the census. However, I think he needs to run for lower office before even thinking about congress.

Amanda Pasdon, who recently resigned from the House of Delegates due to health reasons, was always floated as a potential congressional candidate. I think she'll return to politics before 2022.

Of course, this will all depend on what the boundaries look like.

[SATW]

No question about it, Mooney will do better in 2016 then 2014.