Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[RogueBeaver]

Hebert thinks the BQ can disappear quite soon. One can only hope, though I'll believe that when it happens.

[RogueBeaver]

G&M on Mulcair's strategy and La Presse on Trudeau's Montreal recruitment. Unsurprisingly, La Presse doesn't note the lack of regional recruitment, which is where the Orange-Red battle will be fought. Because narrative forming.

[RogueBeaver]

I do wonder who said recruits will be. Meanwhile here's the other take on Mulcair: not getting traction outside the Hillverse.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the link. Also, Hebert thinks the BQ could disappear. I won't believe that unless it actually happens.

[RogueBeaver]

Agreed. I guess their voters would scatter to the winds, with a majority probably going to you guys. Softer core ones to the Grits and the righties to us.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau got ensnared on expenses.

[RogueBeaver]

So I did a tax return for someone from Ontario today.

You know that big bad "tax the rich" rate for earners >$500 000? NS has higher rates starting at $30 000

Tax reform probably isn't on McNeil's agenda, alas.

[RogueBeaver]

PLQ is finally taking a coherent position on the charter and enforcing proper caucus discipline, but perhaps too late. Leger has the PQ ahead 36/33/17 and nosing into majority territory at the magic 43% of Francophones. 69% of Francophones support the charter, 74% of non-Francos oppose.

Pierre Paquette will run against Legault in L'Assomption - in an election which the PQ president sees as inevitable, regardless of who provokes it. Does Marois pull the trigger if turkeys don't vote for Xmas?

LPC nomination in Ville-Marie between a Trudeau BFF and a Chretien endorsee.

Analysis of the poll from Josee Legault, plus full results. Grenier estimates a 70/47 seat split. Young voters are still anti-Charter.

Tip: Find Legault's article through Twitter to skip the paywall. Works for most JDM articles.

[RogueBeaver]

PLQ has been completely useless and pathetic on the charter, as even their staunchest supporters admit. Now Couillard loses a previously unknown backbencher (Fatima Houda-Pepin) he should've booted eons ago, instead of being pushed around. Even Dion and Iggy didn't get pushed around by random backbenchers.

[RogueBeaver]

Huh? Couillard got mired in what he himself admitted was a purely hypothetical question. To the point, they should've had a position months ago and once agreed upon, in or out. I don't see where supposed Catholic fundamentalism enters into the picture. Not when Muslim and occasionally Sikh or Hasidic garb has been the focus for eons. We do wholeheartedly agree on the Charte being disgusting and silly.

[RogueBeaver]

Totally agreed, misunderstood - thought you were implying Catholic fundamentalism was the Charte target, rather than part of its target audience. At any rate, Marois now has the "can't govern yourselves, can't govern the province" to add to her talking points. Extremely ironic for her particularly and the PQ generally, needless to say.


What do you think the odds are for a March election? After getting burned last November I won't believe it unless there's a dissolution.

[RogueBeaver]

The current speculation is that she'll dissolve the Assnat in 3 weeks' time.

[RogueBeaver]

Hudak fired his Essex candidate for refusing to recant his anti-RTW Tweets. PLQ should take note of how you deal with public insubordination on party policy. Meanwhile the unions are in a lovely catfight about who's leading the anti-PC fight in Ontario.

[RogueBeaver]

More Ford videos, which Ford has confirmed are authentic.

[RogueBeaver]

Whoa: Dunderdale's resigning, Tom Marshall will be interim premier. Guess she didn't want to go down with what looks like a imploding guv. To think I thought Williams had set them up for dynasty...

[RogueBeaver]

Something to do with yesterday's floor crossing? Too bad Williams left...

Also, I'm not surprised that Ivison had this scoop.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah. VOCM says a new election will have to be held this year, which is why I created an election thread in Hash's board. The PC leadership election will be held in April. It nearly happened when Williams retired but Dunderdale decided to stay on. Remember he was publicly distancing himself from her just months into the transition? Closest thing I can think of to the 3 premiers thing is the BC NDP, but that was over a longer period.

[RogueBeaver]

Thanks Hash. Wonder if any other province has something like that. Seems a bit strange to me.

[RogueBeaver]

Which would be even more ridiculous.

[RogueBeaver]

Hebert also thinks the tea leaves look good for an early election.

[RogueBeaver]

Reminder of what happened last time a Canadian PM visited Israel. Laughingstock is an understatement.

[RogueBeaver]

Jean Crowder is retiring next year, as are Cotler and St. Denis. I've always thought (and heard rumblings) that Cotler wouldn't run again. St. Denis obviously wasn't running given the switch and health. I assume the Grits would like to line up a name candidate in one of their crown jewels, no idea who that might be.

[RogueBeaver]

Woot, they're back tomorrow. Budget, contract negotiations and Ukraine. I guess the EC bill at some point this sitting too. Wonder how many Serious People beaks get tweaked or worse till June. More the merrier, right?

[RogueBeaver]

Budget 2 weeks from tomorrow.

[RogueBeaver]

CROP from last week: PLC up 40/28/17. No regional breakdown so no idea what that translates to... my guess is Grits need a bit more for a Quebec seat majority. Yet Mulcair's still by far the most popular federal politician at 60% approval. While even sovereigntists are divided on BQ viability, there's still a core remaining.

Liberal incumbents will be renominated in a few weeks, purposefully frontloaded as part of a 3-stage nomination cycle. Again, open in name only.