If Obama wins California by the margins the polls have been showing, Orange is a good possibility.
How about Richmond (Staten Island) New York? Killing Bin Laden should reverse any remaining 9/11 effect there. Upstate there are some very narrow McCain counties, particularly Ontario.
Not going to happen (either Orange or Richmond). Staten Island (Richmond) is one of the last places I'd expect to trend to Obama. It is historically Republican and full of Archie Bunker types that simply don't like Obama.
OC should trend more Republican than 2008 as the Torie Republicans return home. I also would be surprised to see Sarasota County, Florida flip for similar reasons.
Gore won Richmond NY by 7 points so it would be much less shocking from a historical perspective than Orange CA, which I believe last went Democratic in 1936.
Orange CA is down to 44% non-Hispanic white. Obviously many of the other 56% can't vote, but with that trend it will go Democrat sooner or later.
