Casey +7

[TeePee4Prez]

I don't know about the ABS vote.

Sure, it might exist...heck I might be one of em...but it may not translate into votes for casey...

especially if there are strong Libertarian/Green candidates out there...

Thing is, Casey is essentially fighting Santorum on Casey's home turf...Socially Conservative Democrats...The conservative/uber partisan republicans will stay with rick...the partisan dems with casey, the liberals may (stress may) back a green while liberal moderate republicans (unless arlen can sway)...will likely stay at home...or vote Libertarian [some will vote casey...but I doubt they will in decisive numbers].

Casey has a lead...he should...that name is quite valuable...for it to be only 7 right now...before Santorum has moderated his image or thrown mudballs at Casey is something that should be observed carefully...as the battle will be waged on democratic turf.

Good analysis unfortunately for me.  I know what the numbers say, but do you think us Dems would be better with a pro-choice, social liberal to rile up the base and invite out of state cash or bring back the conservative, pro-life Dems including those former Dems who are now GOP solely because of abortion?   

[TeePee4Prez]

And turncoat Barb Hafer= BAD CHOICE! 

[TeePee4Prez]

Here's teh thing. If it was something like Casey 42 Santorum 35, you could argue Santorum wasn't in too much trouble. But Casey's almost at 50 this early. Santorum has a lot of ground to cover, he's going to need almost all the undecideds (since they break against the incumbent usually not easily) and going to sway a few Casey voters back. Anything can happen in a campaign, but having your opponent at almost 50 this early is not good.

Here's another thing.  Why can't us Democrats field a good pro-choice socially liberal, economically left-center candidate?  Out of Philadelphia and suburbs, we should have someone articulate and intelligent enough as a Democrat who can look very good against Rick Santorum.  The name Lois Murphy keeps popping up in my mind as such a candidate.  She did incredibly well in such a horribly gerrymandered conservative district.  I went to bed thinking she won PA 6!  Jim Gerlach is a horrendous candidate though.  I think we can win PA elections with putting forth an effort solely in eastern PA and trying not to lose too much in SW Penn or Erie County.

[TeePee4Prez]

In other words run a liberal or someone with a economically centrist stance that's socially liberal?  I see your point.  they win the Southeast overwhelmingly and can knock off the whiny conserative Democrats that pout over abortion.

[TeePee4Prez]

Hopefully Santorum will can still win, he's a good senator and I would be more than happy to have him as my senator.

Trade for Stabenow or Levin?  GLADLY!

[TeePee4Prez]

Wouldn't that be +1?

This poll, by the way, seems much more in line with reality than the previous two.

Ever think it may be a Richard Mellon-Scaife bias CONSIDERING HE OWNS THE FREAKIN' PAPER AND IS RABIDLY REPUBLICAN!!!  Consider the source before you make such comments.

[TeePee4Prez]

Ever think it may be a Richard Mellon-Scaife bias CONSIDERING HE OWNS THE FREAKIN' PAPER AND IS RABIDLY REPUBLICAN!!!  Consider the source before you make such comments.

Franklin and Marshall College conducted the poll.  I spoke with a PA Democrat at DU today and he had this to say...

"Franklin and Marshall College has an excellent repuation in the state of PA."

"Terry Madonna is one of the best, if not the best, pollsters in the state. He had Kerry winning PA very close to the actual margin."

Hehe.. WHOOPS!  I seen Pitt Tribune-Review and that bastard Mellon Scaife came up.