Make that "Casey +1"....
By David M. Brown
TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Tuesday, March 22, 2005
A strong challenge to U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum's 2006 re-election bid is taking shape as a new Pittsburgh Tribune-Review poll shows the incumbent Republican running neck-and-neck with Democratic state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr. The statewide Keystone Poll shows Casey, who has announced he will oppose Santorum, edging the two-term incumbent senator by 44 percent to 43 percent -- a statistical dead heat -- among 459 registered voters, with 13 percent undecided. The survey released Monday has a margin for error of 4.6 percentage points.
"These candidates start out relatively even," said Keystone Poll Director G. Terry Madonna. "This is the marquee Senate race in the country next year, and it's going to be an old-fashioned barn-burner."
"Everybody expects it to be hard-fought and very competitive," he said
http://pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/trib/regional/s_315859.html
The last Keystone Poll on the 2004 Presidential Race had Kerry up 51%-46%.
The actual totals were Kerry 51%-48%.
Don't get me wrong, I trust SurveyUSA, but typically only right before elections. Quinnipiac was also decent in 2004, but about as good the Keystone poll.
My gut tells me that if the election were held today, Casey would probably win by 2-4%.
However, considering we are over a year and half from the election, I wouldn't necessarily read too much into that.
I think both campaigns can probably count on about 43-45% of the vote respectively. However, it will be whoever reaches that remaining 10-14% or so as to who will win.
One thing's for sure, this will certainly be a very close race, imo.
