Leaning Democrat States

[barfbag]

I'm disappointed no one wanted to discuss light blue states. There haven't been as many posts lately either. Our next category is leaning Democrat, Democratic battleground, or as I call them purplish blue states. How are these states similar or different. Talk about their internal and external politics and history. I know they used to have a lot of unions.

Maine
Oregon
Michigan
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Hampshire

I also like to call these states purplish blue or Democrat battleground states.

[ElectionsGuy]

All these states have something in common (except PA), and that is that there are a lot of white liberals, or the white population is on average more liberal than the nation.

Exit Polls among white voters

Maine: 57% Obama
Oregon: 54% Obama
Michigan: 55% Romney
Minnesota: 49% Romney
Wisconsin: 51% Romney
Iowa: 51% Obama
New Hampshire: 51% Obama

This along with a large secular or catholic population (which is trending D for some reason) makes these states Lean D.

[barfbag]

All these states have something in common (except PA), and that is that there are a lot of white liberals, or the white population is on average more liberal than the nation.

Exit Polls among white voters

Maine: 57% Obama
Oregon: 54% Obama
Michigan: 55% Romney
Minnesota: 49% Romney
Wisconsin: 51% Romney
Iowa: 51% Obama
New Hampshire: 51% Obama

This along with a large secular or catholic population (which is trending D for some reason) makes these states Lean D.

Pennsylvania also has a high Catholic population. There's a lot of Irish Catholics and blue collar workers where I'm from in the northwestern part of the state. However, it's trending to the right little by little. It could become the next Ohio or even Florida. One of my favorite quotes about our state is from James Carville. "Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the east, Alabama in the middle." Without Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, we'd be about 60-39. Internally, it's light red with a slightly Republican legislature traditionally. As for the governor's mansion, it goes back and forth between 8 years of each party. What Pennsylvania has in common with the other states too is the number of blue collar workers. You mentioned white liberals and you were right on the money. White liberals tend to be less liberal than other liberals which would make sense that these states are purplish blue and not blue.

[ElectionsGuy]

All these states have something in common (except PA), and that is that there are a lot of white liberals, or the white population is on average more liberal than the nation.

Exit Polls among white voters

Maine: 57% Obama
Oregon: 54% Obama
Michigan: 55% Romney
Minnesota: 49% Romney
Wisconsin: 51% Romney
Iowa: 51% Obama
New Hampshire: 51% Obama

This along with a large secular or catholic population (which is trending D for some reason) makes these states Lean D.

Pennsylvania also has a high Catholic population. There's a lot of Irish Catholics and blue collar workers where I'm from in the northwestern part of the state. However, it's trending to the right little by little. It could become the next Ohio or even Florida. One of my favorite quotes about our state is from James Carville. "Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the east, Alabama in the middle." Without Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, we'd be about 60-39. Internally, it's light red with a slightly Republican legislature traditionally. As for the governor's mansion, it goes back and forth between 8 years of each party. What Pennsylvania has in common with the other states too is the number of blue collar workers. You mentioned white liberals and you were right on the money. White liberals tend to be less liberal than other liberals which would make sense that these states are purplish blue and not blue.

Without Pittsburgh, the state is a pure toss-up. Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R. Without both, we'd probably have Georgia. Philadelphia is the real killer, but republican trends with rural whites in the Appalachian region of the state and the population loss (or lack of growth) in Philadelphia is making the state trend slightly R each election.

[barfbag]

All these states have something in common (except PA), and that is that there are a lot of white liberals, or the white population is on average more liberal than the nation.

Exit Polls among white voters

Maine: 57% Obama
Oregon: 54% Obama
Michigan: 55% Romney
Minnesota: 49% Romney
Wisconsin: 51% Romney
Iowa: 51% Obama
New Hampshire: 51% Obama

This along with a large secular or catholic population (which is trending D for some reason) makes these states Lean D.

Pennsylvania also has a high Catholic population. There's a lot of Irish Catholics and blue collar workers where I'm from in the northwestern part of the state. However, it's trending to the right little by little. It could become the next Ohio or even Florida. One of my favorite quotes about our state is from James Carville. "Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the east, Alabama in the middle." Without Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, we'd be about 60-39. Internally, it's light red with a slightly Republican legislature traditionally. As for the governor's mansion, it goes back and forth between 8 years of each party. What Pennsylvania has in common with the other states too is the number of blue collar workers. You mentioned white liberals and you were right on the money. White liberals tend to be less liberal than other liberals which would make sense that these states are purplish blue and not blue.

Without Pittsburgh, the state is a pure toss-up. Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R. Without both, we'd probably have Georgia. Philadelphia is the real killer, but republican trends with rural whites in the Appalachian region of the state and the population loss (or lack of growth) in Philadelphia is making the state trend slightly R each election.

Philadelphia is the reason I support states giving electoral votes based on congressional districts. Another interesting factor about the keystone state is that there's very few counties and precincts where voters are swayable. You pretty much know what you're going to get other than voter turnout. Low voter turnout could help the state flip to Republican, but we'd have almost the exact same state map as 2012. Leaning Democratic states are probably my favorite to analyze. I find the voters match my ideology best.

[PolitiJunkie]

Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R.

Without rednecks, religious folks, old white racists, and anything that's not a city, Kentucky is Safe D.

[ElectionsGuy]

Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R.

Without rednecks, religious folks, old white racists, and anything that's not a city, Kentucky is Safe D.

Which is pretty much a majority of the state. What's your point?

[PolitiJunkie]

Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R.

Without rednecks, religious folks, old white racists, and anything that's not a city, Kentucky is Safe D.

Which is pretty much a majority of the state. What's your point?

That your point was moot/irrelevant/dumb.

Without any party that isn't the Rent Is Too Damn High Party, every state would be safe RITDH.

[ElectionsGuy]

Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R.

Without rednecks, religious folks, old white racists, and anything that's not a city, Kentucky is Safe D.

Which is pretty much a majority of the state. What's your point?

That your point was moot/irrelevant/dumb.

Without any party that isn't the Rent Is Too Damn High Party, every state would be safe RITDH.

I discussing why Pennsylvania is the way it is. Philadelphia pretty much delivers PA's "Leaning D" rank. As well as your point that you described, without old rural religious redneck racists, Kentucky wouldn't be the way it is (even if I don't agree with racist part). I'm not trying to be blame things for being the way they are, I'm explaining why they are the way they are. Sorry if you took it in that way.

[barfbag]

Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R.

Without rednecks, religious folks, old white racists, and anything that's not a city, Kentucky is Safe D.

Without rednecks, religious folks, old white racists, and anything that's not a city, Kentucky has about a thousand people. 

[PolitiJunkie]

Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R.

Without rednecks, religious folks, old white racists, and anything that's not a city, Kentucky is Safe D.

Which is pretty much a majority of the state. What's your point?

That your point was moot/irrelevant/dumb.

Without any party that isn't the Rent Is Too Damn High Party, every state would be safe RITDH.

I discussing why Pennsylvania is the way it is. Philadelphia pretty much delivers PA's "Leaning D" rank. As well as your point that you described, without old rural religious redneck racists, Kentucky wouldn't be the way it is (even if I don't agree with racist part). I'm not trying to be blame things for being the way they are, I'm explaining why they are the way they are. Sorry if you took it in that way.

Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R.

Without rednecks, religious folks, old white racists, and anything that's not a city, Kentucky is Safe D.

Without rednecks, religious folks, old white racists, and anything that's not a city, Kentucky has about a thousand people. 

Exactly. I'm just saying how moot the points are. Saying Pennsylvania is Lean R without Philly and Pittsburgh is like saying Kentucky is Safe D without rednecks, old whites, and non-cities. I'm not saying you're blaming anything on anyone, but you are just making heinously obvious points that bear no relevance to any political conversation whatsoever.

[ElectionsGuy]

Exactly. I'm just saying how moot the points are. Saying Pennsylvania is Lean R without Philly and Pittsburgh is like saying Kentucky is Safe D without rednecks, old whites, and non-cities. I'm not saying you're blaming anything on anyone, but you are just making heinously obvious points that bear no relevance to any political conversation whatsoever.

Barfbag brought it up when he quoted this:

"Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the east, Alabama in the middle." Without Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, we'd be about 60-39.

I thought I would join the discussion. Philadelphia makes up 12.5% of PA population, all those elements of Kentucky likely make up a majority of the population, so you're combating point was distorted, but you made your point. Anyway, I thought I would respond to him with a related note, its very interesting to wonder what states would be like without cities, areas, elements, etc. Sure, it doesn't get you anywhere but its an interesting conversation.

[PolitiJunkie]

All these states have something in common (except PA), and that is that there are a lot of white liberals, or the white population is on average more liberal than the nation.

Exit Polls among white voters

Maine: 57% Obama
Oregon: 54% Obama
Michigan: 55% Romney
Minnesota: 49% Romney
Wisconsin: 51% Romney
Iowa: 51% Obama
New Hampshire: 51% Obama

This along with a large secular or catholic population (which is trending D for some reason) makes these states Lean D.

Pennsylvania also has a high Catholic population. There's a lot of Irish Catholics and blue collar workers where I'm from in the northwestern part of the state. However, it's trending to the right little by little. It could become the next Ohio or even Florida. One of my favorite quotes about our state is from James Carville. "Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the east, Alabama in the middle." Without Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, we'd be about 60-39. Internally, it's light red with a slightly Republican legislature traditionally. As for the governor's mansion, it goes back and forth between 8 years of each party. What Pennsylvania has in common with the other states too is the number of blue collar workers. You mentioned white liberals and you were right on the money. White liberals tend to be less liberal than other liberals which would make sense that these states are purplish blue and not blue.

Without Pittsburgh, the state is a pure toss-up. Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R. Without both, we'd probably have Georgia. Philadelphia is the real killer, but republican trends with rural whites in the Appalachian region of the state and the population loss (or lack of growth) in Philadelphia is making the state trend slightly R each election.

Philadelphia is the reason I support states giving electoral votes based on congressional districts. Another interesting factor about the keystone state is that there's very few counties and precincts where voters are swayable. You pretty much know what you're going to get other than voter turnout. Low voter turnout could help the state flip to Republican, but we'd have almost the exact same state map as 2012. Leaning Democratic states are probably my favorite to analyze. I find the voters match my ideology best.

Wait, so you think Romney should have received several more electoral votes from Pennsylvania than Obama, even though Obama received more votes in the state?

[Nichlemn]

Your vote should count less if you're a densely populated area with people who vote the same as you, obviously.

[barfbag]

All these states have something in common (except PA), and that is that there are a lot of white liberals, or the white population is on average more liberal than the nation.

Exit Polls among white voters

Maine: 57% Obama
Oregon: 54% Obama
Michigan: 55% Romney
Minnesota: 49% Romney
Wisconsin: 51% Romney
Iowa: 51% Obama
New Hampshire: 51% Obama

This along with a large secular or catholic population (which is trending D for some reason) makes these states Lean D.

Pennsylvania also has a high Catholic population. There's a lot of Irish Catholics and blue collar workers where I'm from in the northwestern part of the state. However, it's trending to the right little by little. It could become the next Ohio or even Florida. One of my favorite quotes about our state is from James Carville. "Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the east, Alabama in the middle." Without Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, we'd be about 60-39. Internally, it's light red with a slightly Republican legislature traditionally. As for the governor's mansion, it goes back and forth between 8 years of each party. What Pennsylvania has in common with the other states too is the number of blue collar workers. You mentioned white liberals and you were right on the money. White liberals tend to be less liberal than other liberals which would make sense that these states are purplish blue and not blue.

Without Pittsburgh, the state is a pure toss-up. Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R. Without both, we'd probably have Georgia. Philadelphia is the real killer, but republican trends with rural whites in the Appalachian region of the state and the population loss (or lack of growth) in Philadelphia is making the state trend slightly R each election.

Philadelphia is the reason I support states giving electoral votes based on congressional districts. Another interesting factor about the keystone state is that there's very few counties and precincts where voters are swayable. You pretty much know what you're going to get other than voter turnout. Low voter turnout could help the state flip to Republican, but we'd have almost the exact same state map as 2012. Leaning Democratic states are probably my favorite to analyze. I find the voters match my ideology best.

Wait, so you think Romney should have received several more electoral votes from Pennsylvania than Obama, even though Obama received more votes in the state?

I don't know it's interesting to think about though. As for Pennsylvania's demographics and numbers without Philadelphia or Pittsburgh, I think it's a more valid discussion because they play an even bigger role in their state than urban areas play in Kentucky due to the much greater size of the cities. Pennsylvania also has more than twice Kentucky's population so we're not really talking about a minor state or anything. There is something to be said for what certain states would be like without their largest city or two. This isn't the thread for it, but it would be an interesting topic.

[Smash255]

All these states have something in common (except PA), and that is that there are a lot of white liberals, or the white population is on average more liberal than the nation.

Exit Polls among white voters

Maine: 57% Obama
Oregon: 54% Obama
Michigan: 55% Romney
Minnesota: 49% Romney
Wisconsin: 51% Romney
Iowa: 51% Obama
New Hampshire: 51% Obama

This along with a large secular or catholic population (which is trending D for some reason) makes these states Lean D.

Pennsylvania also has a high Catholic population. There's a lot of Irish Catholics and blue collar workers where I'm from in the northwestern part of the state. However, it's trending to the right little by little. It could become the next Ohio or even Florida. One of my favorite quotes about our state is from James Carville. "Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the east, Alabama in the middle." Without Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, we'd be about 60-39. Internally, it's light red with a slightly Republican legislature traditionally. As for the governor's mansion, it goes back and forth between 8 years of each party. What Pennsylvania has in common with the other states too is the number of blue collar workers. You mentioned white liberals and you were right on the money. White liberals tend to be less liberal than other liberals which would make sense that these states are purplish blue and not blue.

Without Pittsburgh, the state is a pure toss-up. Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R. Without both, we'd probably have Georgia. Philadelphia is the real killer, but republican trends with rural whites in the Appalachian region of the state and the population loss (or lack of growth) in Philadelphia is making the state trend slightly R each election.

Philadelphia is the reason I support states giving electoral votes based on congressional districts. Another interesting factor about the keystone state is that there's very few counties and precincts where voters are swayable. You pretty much know what you're going to get other than voter turnout. Low voter turnout could help the state flip to Republican, but we'd have almost the exact same state map as 2012. Leaning Democratic states are probably my favorite to analyze. I find the voters match my ideology best.

Wait, so you think Romney should have received several more electoral votes from Pennsylvania than Obama, even though Obama received more votes in the state?

I don't know it's interesting to think about though. As for Pennsylvania's demographics and numbers without Philadelphia or Pittsburgh, I think it's a more valid discussion because they play an even bigger role in their state than urban areas play in Kentucky due to the much greater size of the cities. Pennsylvania also has more than twice Kentucky's population so we're not really talking about a minor state or anything. There is something to be said for what certain states would be like without their largest city or two. This isn't the thread for it, but it would be an interesting topic.

There is simply WAYYYYY to much gerrymandering to do the electoral vote by district in most states, PA being one of them.  Other issues as well, but that can never happen with the current way districts are drawn.

Also with PA, Philly obviously is a big factor, but its not like it wasn't heavily Democratic when the state was lean R.  It is the Philadelphia suburbs that have played a big role in the changes in the state from being lean R to lean D.  Montgomery County for example when GOP in ever Pres Election from 1916 to 1988 with the exception of LBJ in 1964, hasn't gone GOP since.

[roadkill]

Also with PA, Philly obviously is a big factor, but its not like it wasn't heavily Democratic when the state was lean R.  It is the Philadelphia suburbs that have played a big role in the changes in the state from being lean R to lean D.  Montgomery County for example when GOP in ever Pres Election from 1916 to 1988 with the exception of LBJ in 1964, hasn't gone GOP since.

Yea, it's not just Philadelphia and Pittsburg that's keeping PA from going Republican.  There's a good 6 or 7 other counties in eastern PA that all have over 100,000 voters that lean more towards Democrat that the rest of the state, and their populations are growing faster than a lot of rural counties in the center and the western part of the state.  In fact, over half of all PA's voters live in about a dozen left leaning high population counties.  I don't think PA is going to move towards Republicans in Presidential election.  If anything, they're going to move further away.

[barfbag]

Also with PA, Philly obviously is a big factor, but its not like it wasn't heavily Democratic when the state was lean R.  It is the Philadelphia suburbs that have played a big role in the changes in the state from being lean R to lean D.  Montgomery County for example when GOP in ever Pres Election from 1916 to 1988 with the exception of LBJ in 1964, hasn't gone GOP since.

Yea, it's not just Philadelphia and Pittsburg that's keeping PA from going Republican.  There's a good 6 or 7 other counties in eastern PA that all have over 100,000 voters that lean more towards Democrat that the rest of the state, and their populations are growing faster than a lot of rural counties in the center and the western part of the state.  In fact, over half of all PA's voters live in about a dozen left leaning high population counties.  I don't think PA is going to move towards Republicans in Presidential election.  If anything, they're going to move further away.

The trend seems to go back and forth though. In the 1980's it was a significant ways left of center and didn't really move much until the 2000's. It's not barely left of center by only one point last year. Also, in the 1990's Clinton won by a few more points than nationally. It's always just out of reach.

[barfbag]

All these states have something in common (except PA), and that is that there are a lot of white liberals, or the white population is on average more liberal than the nation.

Exit Polls among white voters

Maine: 57% Obama
Oregon: 54% Obama
Michigan: 55% Romney
Minnesota: 49% Romney
Wisconsin: 51% Romney
Iowa: 51% Obama
New Hampshire: 51% Obama

This along with a large secular or catholic population (which is trending D for some reason) makes these states Lean D.

Pennsylvania also has a high Catholic population. There's a lot of Irish Catholics and blue collar workers where I'm from in the northwestern part of the state. However, it's trending to the right little by little. It could become the next Ohio or even Florida. One of my favorite quotes about our state is from James Carville. "Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the east, Alabama in the middle." Without Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, we'd be about 60-39. Internally, it's light red with a slightly Republican legislature traditionally. As for the governor's mansion, it goes back and forth between 8 years of each party. What Pennsylvania has in common with the other states too is the number of blue collar workers. You mentioned white liberals and you were right on the money. White liberals tend to be less liberal than other liberals which would make sense that these states are purplish blue and not blue.

Without Pittsburgh, the state is a pure toss-up. Without Philadelphia, the state is Lean R. Without both, we'd probably have Georgia. Philadelphia is the real killer, but republican trends with rural whites in the Appalachian region of the state and the population loss (or lack of growth) in Philadelphia is making the state trend slightly R each election.

Philadelphia is the reason I support states giving electoral votes based on congressional districts. Another interesting factor about the keystone state is that there's very few counties and precincts where voters are swayable. You pretty much know what you're going to get other than voter turnout. Low voter turnout could help the state flip to Republican, but we'd have almost the exact same state map as 2012. Leaning Democratic states are probably my favorite to analyze. I find the voters match my ideology best.

Wait, so you think Romney should have received several more electoral votes from Pennsylvania than Obama, even though Obama received more votes in the state?

I don't know it's interesting to think about though. As for Pennsylvania's demographics and numbers without Philadelphia or Pittsburgh, I think it's a more valid discussion because they play an even bigger role in their state than urban areas play in Kentucky due to the much greater size of the cities. Pennsylvania also has more than twice Kentucky's population so we're not really talking about a minor state or anything. There is something to be said for what certain states would be like without their largest city or two. This isn't the thread for it, but it would be an interesting topic.

There is simply WAYYYYY to much gerrymandering to do the electoral vote by district in most states, PA being one of them.  Other issues as well, but that can never happen with the current way districts are drawn.

Also with PA, Philly obviously is a big factor, but its not like it wasn't heavily Democratic when the state was lean R.  It is the Philadelphia suburbs that have played a big role in the changes in the state from being lean R to lean D.  Montgomery County for example when GOP in ever Pres Election from 1916 to 1988 with the exception of LBJ in 1964, hasn't gone GOP since.

Gerrymandering is the downside of such a way to do the Electoral College. The best way to do it might be to leave it up to the states on how they want to administer their Electoral Votes. Most would probably keep things as they are in order to keep their say. Why on earth would a state want to forfeit their Electoral Votes to the winner of the popular vote if their state doesn't vote for the winner of the popular vote?

[TeePee4Prez]

Also with PA, Philly obviously is a big factor, but its not like it wasn't heavily Democratic when the state was lean R.  It is the Philadelphia suburbs that have played a big role in the changes in the state from being lean R to lean D.  Montgomery County for example when GOP in ever Pres Election from 1916 to 1988 with the exception of LBJ in 1964, hasn't gone GOP since.

Yea, it's not just Philadelphia and Pittsburg that's keeping PA from going Republican.  There's a good 6 or 7 other counties in eastern PA that all have over 100,000 voters that lean more towards Democrat that the rest of the state, and their populations are growing faster than a lot of rural counties in the center and the western part of the state.  In fact, over half of all PA's voters live in about a dozen left leaning high population counties.  I don't think PA is going to move towards Republicans in Presidential election.  If anything, they're going to move further away.

Another factor here- The eastern Poconos trending D!  Many people forget that one.  The Philadelphia suburbs are weird.  Basically if the top of the ticket is a more preppy, WASPy, business type Republican who's less evangelical on social issues, they're competitive, but not quite going to flip the counties around Philadelphia to the R's.  Pick Rick Perry, Sarah Palin or Rick Santorum those counties are almost solidly Democratic, but the less populated, older western PA move towards those candidates.

PA is a seesaw.  If the GOP goes towards the slick, business type (Chester/Bucks), they alienate the blue collar, religious type (SW and interior NE PA + white blue collar urban) and vice versa.  The Democrats have a more solid base which is why PA is fools gold for the GOP.