538 model & poll tracker thread

[LimoLiberal]

The Model:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

National: Biden +9.2%

California: Biden +29.4%
New York: Biden +26.8%
Washington: Biden +24.7%
New Jersey: Biden +21.2%
Colorado: Biden +17%
Virginia: Biden +10.6%
Michigan: Biden +10.2%
Nevada: Biden +8%
New Hampshire: Biden +7.7%
Florida: Biden +6.9%
Wisconsin: Biden +6.6%
Pennsylvania: Biden +5.3%
Arizona: Biden +4%
North Carolina: Biden +3%
Ohio: Biden +2.7%
Georgia: Biden +1%
Iowa: Trump +0.6%
Texas: Trump +0.7%
Missouri: Trump +4.9%
Utah: Trump +6.7%
South Carolina: Trump +7.8%
Kansas: Trump +9.5%
Tennessee: Trump +11.4%

[Non Swing Voter]

Michigan looks like it really wants to reattach itself to the blue wall.  But I think the Michigan polls must be off a bit.

[pppolitics]

Hmm...

I thought that it's going to be more like the Economist and JHK version (i.e. maps with chances of winning, electoral votes, etc.)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Hmm...

I thought that it's going to be more like the Economist and JHK version (i.e. maps with chances of winning, electoral votes, etc.)

These are just weighted poll averages. What you’ve mentioned comes out with the (as of yet unreleased) full model. Is there an ETA on when that’s coming out?

[ProudModerate2]

Looking good.
We can now go here, in addition to RCP.
I wish they would do a quicky-one-page showing the average for each of the "expanded" battleground states, instead of us having to look at each state one-at-a-time.

[Epaminondas]

So that makes Pennsylvania the current tipping-point state. How appropriate.

[S019]

For the 538 model FL is the tipping point

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/jbLKm, states in red are right of FL and states in blue are left of FL.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I’ve been predicting the NPV would be Biden +9 for three months now!

So the tipping point is 2.3 points to the right of the nation, compared with 2.9 points I believe in 2016.

Interesting that they project Biden to win CA by less than Hillary won it

[Landslide Lyndon]

I’ve been predicting the NPV would be Biden +9 for three months now!

So the tipping point is 2.3 points to the right of the nation, compared with 2.9 points I believe in 2016.

Interesting that they project Biden to win CA by less than Hillary won it

Polls showed Newsom winning by 10 points or less. Democrats are always badly underestimated there.

[Flo 2.0]

I’ve been predicting the NPV would be Biden +9 for three months now!

So the tipping point is 2.3 points to the right of the nation, compared with 2.9 points I believe in 2016.

Interesting that they project Biden to win CA by less than Hillary won it

Polls showed Newsom winning by 10 points or less. Democrats are always badly underestimated there.

afaik there were very few polls that showed him leading by less than 10% --

yeah looking at RCP's average he was underestimated in the average by 6% and underestimated Clinton by 5% in 2016! so def a bit of room there! n_n

[wbrocks67]

I’ve been predicting the NPV would be Biden +9 for three months now!

So the tipping point is 2.3 points to the right of the nation, compared with 2.9 points I believe in 2016.

Interesting that they project Biden to win CA by less than Hillary won it

these aren't their projections, they're just polling averages

their full model (projection) hasn't come out yet

[wbrocks67]

all i have to say is THANK GOD we don't have to use those hacks at RCP anymore

[Non Swing Voter]

all i have to say is THANK GOD we don't have to use those hacks at RCP anymore

They are hacks but why would it matter for polling averages?  they're just averaging recent polls.

[wbrocks67]

all i have to say is THANK GOD we don't have to use those hacks at RCP anymore

They are hacks but why would it matter for polling averages?  they're just averaging recent polls.

because 538 includes all polls (or 99% of polls) - RCP has probably excluded at least 50% of the national polls we've gotten over the last week. They don't include Morning Consult, Reuters/Ipsos, Firehouse/Optimus, Redfield, the other YouGov polls we get thru the week, and those are just the ones I can think of the top of my head. Their tracker is just wholly incomplete

[SingingAnalyst]

I hope they post an interactive map like in 2016.

[wbrocks67]

They are doing the absolute most though to still say that Trump has a chance. Yes, does he have a chance? of course. But Biden has a +9 lead in the polls right now, which is major. And yet we're still hearing the takes of "BUT TRUMP CAN STILL WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!!!"

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1273594200014102530

[GeorgiaModerate]

They are doing the absolute most though to still say that Trump has a chance. Yes, does he have a chance? of course. But Biden has a +9 lead in the polls right now, which is major. And yet we're still hearing the takes of "BUT TRUMP CAN STILL WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!!!"

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1273594200014102530

Good.  People need to keep reminding themselves of that until all the votes have been cast.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

They are doing the absolute most though to still say that Trump has a chance. Yes, does he have a chance? of course. But Biden has a +9 lead in the polls right now, which is major. And yet we're still hearing the takes of "BUT TRUMP CAN STILL WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!!!"

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1273594200014102530

He can, though.  It's still four months and change until Election Day. 

Things can change and it does the Democrats no favors to be complacent. 

[wbrocks67]

They are doing the absolute most though to still say that Trump has a chance. Yes, does he have a chance? of course. But Biden has a +9 lead in the polls right now, which is major. And yet we're still hearing the takes of "BUT TRUMP CAN STILL WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!!!"

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1273594200014102530

He can, though.  It's still four months and change until Election Day. 

Things can change and it does the Democrats no favors to be complacent. 

Analyzing what the polls are saying =/= complacency

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A KY average has just been generated: Trump +17.4%.

[redjohn]

A KY average has just been generated: Trump +17.4%.

Taking a glance at their 2016 forecast, which had Trump leading by 12.3% at this time in 2016.

Trump ended up winning by 29.8%.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A KY average has just been generated: Trump +17.4%.

Taking a glance at their 2016 forecast, which had Trump leading by 12.3% at this time in 2016.

Trump ended up winning by 29.8%.

N.B. this isn't their forecast. I expect Trump to perform a bit better in that because of undecided voters' Republican skew.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A KY average has just been generated: Trump +17.4%.

Trump won Kentucky by nearly 30% in 2016, but 538 only had him up by 20% on the eve of the election. I wonder if we'll see the same thing in 2020, where Trump outperformed the forecast in deeply red states.

[ProgressiveModerate]

While this model is better than the crappy RCP model, I'm still underwhelmed. Release the F***ING FORECAST!