Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Only 2 cities + 11 precincts in Vienna are left to count.

In ca. 30 minutes everything is counted.

[Beezer]

German media is having a collective orgasm over the possibility of an Austrian Jamaica coalition (albeit with different colors). What's the likelihood from an Austrian perspective?

[Tender Branson]

„Der Standard“ has a surprisingly good clickable map for towns/cities this time:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000109126022/so-haben-die-gemeinden-bei-der-nationalratswahl-abgestimmt

Click on Hochburgen (= strongholds) and then select a party.

[Tender Branson]

German media is having a collective orgasm over the possibility of an Austrian Jamaica coalition (albeit with different colors). What's the likelihood from an Austrian perspective?

Certainly possible, now that the FPÖ will go into opposition.

Kurz might want to broaden the appeal of his future coalition by not only inviting the Greens but also NEOS.

[Oryxslayer]

Only 2 cities + 11 precincts in Vienna are left to count.

In ca. 30 minutes everything is counted.

Well, everything except the mail ballots. Do you know if the mail ballots end up matched to locality or if they are all just one basket? And also how many are theoretically out there, since some were counted today if they were handed in?

[DL]

German media is having a collective orgasm over the possibility of an Austrian Jamaica coalition (albeit with different colors). What's the likelihood from an Austrian perspective?

A Jamaica coalition would imply a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition, but since the OVP and the Greens together already likely have a majority - why include NEOS?

[DL]

German media is having a collective orgasm over the possibility of an Austrian Jamaica coalition (albeit with different colors). What's the likelihood from an Austrian perspective?

Certainly possible, now that the FPÖ will go into opposition.

Kurz might want to broaden the appeal of his future coalition by not only inviting the Greens but also NEOS.

But would the Greens want to be even more "diluted" by being in a coalition with two rightwing parties?

[Tender Branson]

Only 2 cities + 11 precincts in Vienna are left to count.

In ca. 30 minutes everything is counted.

Well, everything except the mail ballots. Do you know if the mail ballots end up matched to locality or if they are all just one basket? And also how many are theoretically out there, since some were counted today if they were handed in?

Voters send them to their district administration/voting commissions (of which some 120 exist) and will be counted there tomorrow.

No „big basket“.

Ca. 950.000 postal ballots will be added.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why is OVP at 83.5% in Fontanella?

[Tender Branson]

Why is OVP at 83.5% in Fontanella?

The same reasons Trump gets 90% in Hicksville, Nebraska ...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why is OVP at 83.5% in Fontanella?

The same reasons Trump gets 90% in Hicksville, Nebraska ...

Oh well I mean, it's the strongest OVP municipality in the country. What's the history behind that?

[Oryxslayer]

German media is having a collective orgasm over the possibility of an Austrian Jamaica coalition (albeit with different colors). What's the likelihood from an Austrian perspective?

Certainly possible, now that the FPÖ will go into opposition.

Kurz might want to broaden the appeal of his future coalition by not only inviting the Greens but also NEOS.

But would the Greens want to be even more "diluted" by being in a coalition with two rightwing parties?

OVP+Greens would only have a bit more that the threshold in got, so tacking NEOS on to the govt would be to buttress for safety. However, because  NEOS is somewhat close to the OVP politically, and like you said, the greens are already at a 2:1 disadvantage at least in govt, and Austria has never had a three-party arrangement, NEOS shouldn't be joining govt officially. If such a govt would form, it would be based on NEOS outside support in exchange for a few proposals, while the greens get govt portfolios alongside the OVP.

[Hnv1]

OVP-NEOS is an excellent coalition. great results today, well done Austria

[Tender Branson]

Why is OVP at 83.5% in Fontanella?

The same reasons Trump gets 90% in Hicksville, Nebraska ...

Oh well I mean, it's the strongest OVP municipality in the country. What's the history behind that?

It’s a hamlet of 50 people on a mountain, surrounded by cows and chicken.

[Oryxslayer]

OVP-NEOS is an excellent coalition. great results today, well done Austria

OVP-NEOS lacks a majority,at least based on projections. OVP-Greens has one.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

German media is having a collective orgasm over the possibility of an Austrian Jamaica coalition (albeit with different colors). What's the likelihood from an Austrian perspective?

Certainly possible, now that the FPÖ will go into opposition.

Kurz might want to broaden the appeal of his future coalition by not only inviting the Greens but also NEOS.

But would the Greens want to be even more "diluted" by being in a coalition with two rightwing parties?

Is NEOS really right-wing?

[Tender Branson]

Only 5 precincts left in Vienna.

[Walmart_shopper]

German media is having a collective orgasm over the possibility of an Austrian Jamaica coalition (albeit with different colors). What's the likelihood from an Austrian perspective?

Certainly possible, now that the FPÖ will go into opposition.

Kurz might want to broaden the appeal of his future coalition by not only inviting the Greens but also NEOS.

But would the Greens want to be even more "diluted" by being in a coalition with two rightwing parties?

Is NEOS really right-wing?

Is Macron right wing? I mean, no, but a significant number of people to his left nevertheless think so.

[President Johnson]

It's wonderful how the FPÖ has lost so much, though 16% is still too much. I guess a lot of their more moderate voters switched to the ÖVP.

Now I'm curious which coalition will be formed. I think the NEOs would be a good choice.

[DL]

German media is having a collective orgasm over the possibility of an Austrian Jamaica coalition (albeit with different colors). What's the likelihood from an Austrian perspective?

Certainly possible, now that the FPÖ will go into opposition.

Kurz might want to broaden the appeal of his future coalition by not only inviting the Greens but also NEOS.

But would the Greens want to be even more "diluted" by being in a coalition with two rightwing parties?

Is NEOS really right-wing?

Is Macron right wing? I mean, no, but a significant number of people to his left nevertheless think so.

My understanding is that NEOS is basically an Austrian version of the FDP in Germany. Very rightwing and quasi-libertarian on economic issues and relatively liberal on social issues.

[Nortexius]

How big of a factor is the much lower voter turnout in the underperformance of FPÖ and overperformance of Greens and ÖVP? Is it possible that lower educated voters who disproportionally vote FPÖ stayed home while higher educated people who disproportionally vote Green went to the polls?

[urutzizu]

German media is having a collective orgasm over the possibility of an Austrian Jamaica coalition (albeit with different colors). What's the likelihood from an Austrian perspective?

Certainly possible, now that the FPÖ will go into opposition.

Kurz might want to broaden the appeal of his future coalition by not only inviting the Greens but also NEOS.

But would the Greens want to be even more "diluted" by being in a coalition with two rightwing parties?

Is NEOS really right-wing?

Is Macron right wing? I mean, no, but a significant number of people to his left nevertheless think so.

My understanding is that NEOS is basically an Austrian version of the FDP in Germany. Very rightwing and quasi-libertarian on economic issues and relatively liberal on social issues.

They are more centrist than the FDP.

On a side note, there is now no more EU country in Western Europe with a far-right Party in Government.

[Oryxslayer]

For those wondering, according to projections;

OVP-SPO Has a majority
OVP-FPO has a majority, FPO has stated a desire to enter opposition.
OVP-Greens has majority, greens have expressed a desire to enter govt if Kurz reverses certain policies.
OVP-NEOS lacks a majority.

OVP-Greens-Neos has a majority, obviously. Throwing NEOS onto the OVP-Greens govt would be to purely support its lifespan. The Greens would probably demand NEOS remains a supply partner rather than an official member, to increase their influence. The other way around doesn't work when considering Kurz's potential partners goals.

[Tender Branson]

Everything is now counted.

Vienna remains Red.

The SPÖ finished 5% ahead of the ÖVP.

[DL]

What are the chances that any seats will change hands once all the postal votes are added in tomorrow?